Kelce or no

[senryu]

Just to be clear, do you know if you play the pick 10 owner during KC's bye week? I mean, if he went both KC players it'd at least be good to know you can stick it to him later.

[Invictus]

That injury to Barkley scares me, especially for a running back.
So two best openings Hill, Ekeler or Kelce, Ekeler.
Personally I would go with setup 1 as I'm higher on Mark Andrews then most and I like WR being my teams strength.

[hockeyrobot]

Definitely don't know the guy will take Kelce at 10/11. But I do like the idea of taking Taylor at 9 and then taking whatever Chief is left with my next pick.

Based on the order Waller should go before it gets back to me in round 3.

TE just worries me because those mid range guys rarely pay off.

[Invictus]

Ya if you don't see much of difference between Ekeler and Taylor. Pick Kelce and take either of the two next pick.. I think one should be available still (I prefer Ekeler).

[2014olympicgold]

TE will be interesting.
2019 - the top 5 TEs were Kelce (253.3), Kittle (221.5), Waller (220.0), Ertz (214.6), Andrews (205.2) - This is PPR scoring
2020 - the top 5 TEs were Kelce (311.76), Waller (276.6), Tonyan (176.6), Thomas (175.62), Hockerson (174.3)

2019 - 48pts difference (3pts/week)
2020 - 137.46pts difference (8.59pts/week)

The big thing is, was 2020 an outlier or the new standard. I think it's more outlier, but I do think we see Kelce as the clear TE1, and then the next 4 be pretty close. Like, no one is talking about how Waller last yr out scored Kelce in 2019, which is nuts. Or how there was 100pt drop off between TE2 and TE3 last yr.

If you don't get Kelce, I wouldn't be too worried. I do like getting Kelce in the range you're picking, but I wouldn't be fretting too much if you don't get the top 3 tight ends this yr. I know it's a bit different than my first post, but I do think getting Taylor in round 1.9 is much smarter than going Kelce.

[hockeyrobot]

\

The big thing is, was 2020 an outlier or the new standard. I think it's more outlier, but I do think we see Kelce as the clear TE1, and then the next 4 be pretty close. Like, no one is talking about how Waller last yr out scored Kelce in 2019, which is nuts. Or how there was 100pt drop off between TE2 and TE3 last yr.

Agreed. So for me it comes back down to the original comparison but I will update it with current ADPs.

Taylor
Kelce
Diontae or D. Harris

Or

Hill
Taylor or Ekeler or Barkley
Hock or Andrews

[2014olympicgold]

I'd go with Taylor+BPA as my options.

But at the exact same time, that range of 6-15 in this yrs NFL could be anything. I've seen drafts where Zeke drops to 9.

I'd say don't zone in on anyone in the 1st round. Guys like Chubb are possible to be back end of round 1 too. I think in that 39th pick range there's a fair number of WR available like Evans, Godwin, Cooper, Kupp, Woods, will be there. And an outside shot at Kittle.

I'd go BPA in the 1st. If it's like Adams and you want an RB, don't do it. Take whoever. I would personally go Taylor, then if Chubb is there still I really like Chubb as my RB2, or Hill as my WR1, or Kelce. There's so many options I can't really say this yr who you should go with, but I would say don't really be too upset about not getting Kelce if there's better players available. TE to me isn't like last yr.

maybe we can be here for your draft to help lol.

[hockeyrobot]

maybe we can be here for your draft to help lol.

That would require some very quick posting lol.

But I'm not overly worried either. I was just trying to talk it through. But I will say I am less optimistic about TE then you are. And it's that middle range that has killers every single year where people reach for a supposed break out and then they do nothing but you spend 6 weeks waiting on something that isn't coming. See Higbee last year, Jonnu two years ago etc etc etc.

Andrews - Lamar can't throw
Hock - Goff is not Stafford
Pitts - needs to set all time rookie TE records to pay off at his value

But yes in the end it's only 10 teams so there should be a few available and if I miss out on a top tier I can just hope to get this year's Tonyan. Or maybe just Tonyan himself. Don't get why everyone is so down on him.

[senryu]

That would require some very quick posting lol.


But yes in the end it's only 10 teams so there should be a few available and if I miss out on a top tier I can just hope to get this year's Tonyan. Or maybe just Tonyan himself. Don't get why everyone is so down on him.

It's all about the TD's being unsustainable. He could score 11 TDs again, but I'd bet on TD regression. And his yards put him at 13th among TEs last year.

[Invictus]

So is Davante Adams for sure already going to be taken?

[hockeyrobot]

So is Davante Adams for sure already going to be taken?

I assume so. If not obviously I take him.

[hockeyrobot]

As you say....anything can happen.

Taylor went 8th. Adams to me at 9 lol. Kelce on the way back. Yes please.

[senryu]

As you say....anything can happen.

Taylor went 8th. Adams to me at 9 lol. Kelce on the way back. Yes please.

Cracking open victory beers here at senryu world headquarters!

[2014olympicgold]

As you say....anything can happen.

Taylor went 8th. Adams to me at 9 lol. Kelce on the way back. Yes please.

Top player at 2 positions is always fun to own.

Lets see the rest of the draft!

[Invictus]

As you say....anything can happen.

Taylor went 8th. Adams to me at 9 lol. Kelce on the way back. Yes please.

Nice grats!! Very strong opening.