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Thread: Dobber's Top Keeper League Goalies - Aug 2021 discussion

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    Default Dobber's Top Keeper League Goalies - Aug 2021 discussion

    I'm interested to hear what other people think of the list, specifically the Tier and Rating given. Not looking to discuss the top 100, so maybe narrow it down to the top 30.

    Some oddities that standout to me after reading the boards, the draft kit, other forums are:

    Jarry (75.3 Rating and Tier 1)
    Binnington (74.3 Rating and Tier 1)
    Markstrom (65.1 Rating and Tier 1)
    I have more but just focusing on these Tier 1 oddities

    I initially had Jarry high in my own rankings, but after seeing his name be discussed, so many people are down on him and yet Dobber has him quite high in the list. I'm not sure what the Rating it based on, but it just seems odd for Jarry to have him so much higher than say Ullmark, Samsonov or even Bobrovsky. I understand Age of the player, workload, the current team and future of said team should be taken into consideration for Keeper Leagues, but I really can't wrap my head around this one or Binnington and Markstom.

    Jarry is 26, PIT could be seen as a team with its star core players heading into their twilight years and they don't exactly have prospects lined up to fill those shoes. Same could be said about WSH and FLA is looking at an uptrend with what they have going. All 3 teams are teams I have finishing in the Top 10 standings and all should be near the top for their divisions, yet there is quite a disparity in Rating and Tiers.

    In regards to his workload he's obviously expected to see the majority of starts, but shouldn't it be that Quality > Quantity? Without posting actual figures from the Dobber draft kit, I'll just say that they have Jarry at a 60% win rate, which is actually less than all 3 of Ullmark, Samsonov and Bobrovsky. Even if Jarry gets anywhere from 3-17 more starts than those 3, he only ends up with 1-8 more Wins with worse GAA in most comparisons (again referring to the Dobber draft kit).

    So is 1-8 more Wins worth a much higher Rating and Tier class? In the case of 8 more wins, I'd say sure, but 1-3 wins gets less certain and with that degree of separation you'd definitely want to consider the other factors at play.

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    Binnington is kind of the same story, but more to do with the Central Division itself being pretty competitive and it isn't all clear cut who ends up where. So yeah, while he should see more of the workload, he isn't far ahead in terms of Wins or GAA.

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    Markstrom, while in the weakest division, the Flames are a year or two away from realizing they needed to rebuild instead of continually pushing for middle of the pack. So from a Keeper League perspective, the Flames aren't exactly screaming long term fantasy value.

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    So am I not understanding things correctly or am I underrating Jarry, Binnington and Markstrom? I really don't feel/think they are in better positions than Ullmark, Samsonov and Bob. If someone wants to say that it's because those 3 aren't the clear starters, I again would have to point out how Dobber's own projections shows that the 3 "starters" aren't magically get any more wins or barely additional wins over the 3 I am comparing them to.

    And if we want to dig deeper, I'd go further to say that Ullmark/Swayman, Samsonov/Vanecek and Bob/Knight are WAY better tandems than Jarry/DeSmith, Binnington/Husso and Markstrom/Vladar. So is there not value there to be considered in that Ullmark, Samsonov and Bob will be in better positions and rested to tackle their starts vs Jarry, Binnington and Markstrom who are guys who would actually benefit from seeing less games than their projected 53-57 GP?

    There are obviously some other oddities (Gibson, Blackwood, Merzlikins, etc) who are most likely going to get way less wins and worse SPCT and GAA than Ullmark, Samsonov and Bob - yet they have higher Ratings and/or Tiers. Just bizzare.
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    G: Thompson, Vanecek, UPL, Lyon, Binnington

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    Default Re: Dobber's Top Keeper League Goalies - Aug 2021 discussion

    It looks like the guys you're under-rating are the true workhorses with no one to really push them for starts. These guys have solid ratios, and will put up more wins, more SOs, and a ton more saves, plus having more weight to their ratios.
    If your league really only rewards quality over quantity, then you would bump these guys down, and you're probably pretty spot on in your thinking.
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    Default Re: Dobber's Top Keeper League Goalies - Aug 2021 discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    It looks like the guys you're under-rating are the true workhorses with no one to really push them for starts. These guys have solid ratios, and will put up more wins, more SOs, and a ton more saves, plus having more weight to their ratios.
    If your league really only rewards quality over quantity, then you would bump these guys down, and you're probably pretty spot on in your thinking.
    Yup, agree with EB. It all depends on how you assign value to your goalies. Volume stats are important in many leagues and guys like Markstrom, Binnington and Jarry should get the starts necessary to fill those stats.

    In the end, though, you're the one who knows your league settings and can adjust the rankings to match those. Good luck!

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    Default Re: Dobber's Top Keeper League Goalies - Aug 2021 discussion

    I noticed that Shesterkin was Tier 3 in the Dobber Guide Spreadsheet but is Tier 1 here, in my league sig below who would you keep moving forward, Shesterkin or Saros?
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    Default Re: Dobber's Top Keeper League Goalies - Aug 2021 discussion

    I'm keeping Shesty of the two just for the higher upside, and his team is trending in the right direction.
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    Default Re: Dobber's Top Keeper League Goalies - Aug 2021 discussion

    I know this is more of a question then adding to the debate but I am in a salary cap league that only gives points for wins and shutouts, limited starts as well. Wondering your thoughts on Binnington this year at 4mill?1 I have been debating him all summer and am torn between going with two cheaper goalies or investing in him. I currently have Vanecek but am really interested in Petersen at 1mill but he will probably be on a lot of guys radars. Any advice appreciated
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