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Thread: Football Draft Spot preference?

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    Default Football Draft Spot preference?

    10 team half PPR.

    Where do you want to draft? We have an option to choose every year so thought I'd see what everyone thinks.

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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    1 is best because you get McCaffrey, who projects to be a difference maker. Past that, I prefer the end as I'm a zero-RB or 1-RB proponent. I'd want to come away with 2 of D. Adams, Kelce, or T. Hill. If your league is like most, then it'll be RBs for the first several picks.

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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    Yes I think you want a top 6 or 7 pick. You start with an elite RB or Adams and then you get who you get at the end of 2/start of 3.

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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    I hardly win when I get 1st overall. I dunno why but I seem to do better when it's mid picks like 4-6. Good luck
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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    Quote Originally Posted by Feenom View Post
    I hardly win when I get 1st overall. I dunno why but I seem to do better when it's mid picks like 4-6. Good luck
    Been some tough years to pick top 3 lately. McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliot etc in the last few years have sunk teams picking at the top. Every team runs into RB injuries but its hard to absorb that kind of loss when you don't pick again for a while. Personally I think the best spot is somewhere near the end of the tier 1 group. So, 4-6 as Feenom said.

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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    I like being near the end of round turn, but not at it. This is especially true if the person at the turn is either stupid and a non-factor or drafts really reliably so that I can predict who will be left.

    It does depend somewhat on rules, as TE required is different than no separate TE, and 2 QB is different than 1 QB.
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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    I always prefer to be right in the middle.
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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    Never drafted football, but I got 7th spot for tier II. If it's anything like hockey - I will not like it lol.
    #1 best spot.
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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    Quote Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
    Never drafted football, but I got 7th spot for tier II. If it's anything like hockey - I will not like it lol.
    #1 best spot.
    I would normally prefer to draft 1-2 spots off the turn so ideally 2nd or 3rd picks (or 10th/11th in a 12 team league would be my next choices).

    But having 1st overall this year, I’ve really liked what I’ve been able to build in my mock drafts. As long as CMC stays healthy, picking first this year should be a big advantage

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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    I like 3 or 7 in a 10 team.

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    I always prefer to be right in the middle.
    Interesting. Is that because your team is kind of just averaged out being in the middle?

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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    As a math guy, I believe in Gaussian distribution... and the best value is at 1... then 2...
    If there is a tier of players, then obviously you want to be at the back of the tier.

    McCaffrey is the pick at 1.
    Dalvin Cook at 2.
    Kamara/Henry next depending on whether league has PPR (Kamara favored in PPR)
    Most people like those as consensus first two off the board.

    FantasyPros has some tiering and projections that I like.
    Mostly you need tiering to see where the projected drop-offs are at each position.

    For example, there is a "Top 8", some people feel at WR this year.
    And some feel there is a consensus 8-10 at RB... depends on whether a league is PPR or not
    Kelce is considered an alone top TE.
    Mahomes, some still consider the top QB.

    For me, they key count is always your first TWO or THREE players.

    If you are drafting 1-4... you should queue up your first THREE picks. (That's about 30 picks deep in a 12-team league)
    If you are drafting 8-on... you should queue up your first TWO picks. (That's about 16 picks deep in a 12-team league)

    The biggest drop-off, per FantasyPros, is at WR.
    Top 4 (Hill/Adams/Diggs/Ridley), then 4 more (Hopkins/Metcalf/Brown/Jefferson)... and then in PPR, Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson II sneak up to make a queue of 10.

    So... for me... if you are drafting early this year - you are likely taking a rockRB1.
    And... for me... if you are drafting late this year - you are likely looking at either WR/RB or WR/WR (if you are comfortable with streaming RB). Getting 2 elite WRs from 8-14 draft spot this year will be nice.
    Though - if you are drafting late (8-14)... you may consider drafting Kelce and locking up a premier player at position. Huge drop-offs after Kelce at TE.
    And for middle-round drafters... it's BPA - of course, but the 2nd of middle round might land Travis Kelce... who is queued up as #14 in Half PPR... but who might fall since most GMs have gotten used to focusing on a RB and WR to start off their drafts.

    This year's draft is about getting the end of that "Tier 2" of WRs.
    Go to Fantasy Pros and check it out.

    The one theory that has worked for me in last 2-3 years is to get a premium (top 5) QB.
    The reason it has worked... is I draft just one QB.
    And I try to nail down either RB or WR... whichever one I land better quality off start of draft.
    Whichever position I didn't get my 2 first... I volume draft those. So if I start RB-RB-WR-QB... then I'm probably volume drafting WRs in middle rounds.

    My 2 cents.

    [FWIW - I have the #2 spot in Dobber Tier I this year... so... there won't be any surprise at who I take there. Ha.]

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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    Quote Originally Posted by 4T2 View Post
    But having 1st overall this year, I’ve really liked what I’ve been able to build in my mock drafts. As long as CMC stays healthy, picking first this year should be a big advantage
    He won't stay healthy and you have had some bad karma in the past with the #1 pick so I think you should trade it to me :P

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    As a math guy, I believe in Gaussian distribution... and the best value is at 1... then 2...
    Same!! And more prevalent in odd round drafts.
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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    10 team league?

    1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 5th, 4th, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 10th.

    It really depends on your league. I had a league that instead of winning the 1st overall pick in our "Draft lottery" you picked where you wanted to draft, then 2nd place in the lottery picked next and so on. I knew my league was very heavy on personal preference players, so I knew top talent would drop often. I ended up usually picking 8-10th because I liked the turn, and I never was bad enough to pick 1st or 2nd.

    I think if you know who you want, you want to draft as early as possible. I think outside of CMC, you have a pretty large tier of players and depends on league settings (Henry vs Cook, Elliott vs Kamara) but I would want to pick as high as possible in most leagues. But I do also feel like I can get close to the same player at 3 as at 6th and 7th. Just depends on your league.
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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    Lots of great advice here. Thanks everyone.

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    Default Re: Football Draft Spot preference?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2014olympicgold View Post
    10 team league?

    1st, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 5th, 4th, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 10th.

    It really depends on your league. I had a league that instead of winning the 1st overall pick in our "Draft lottery" you picked where you wanted to draft, then 2nd place in the lottery picked next and so on. I knew my league was very heavy on personal preference players, so I knew top talent would drop often. I ended up usually picking 8-10th because I liked the turn, and I never was bad enough to pick 1st or 2nd.

    I think if you know who you want, you want to draft as early as possible. I think outside of CMC, you have a pretty large tier of players and depends on league settings (Henry vs Cook, Elliott vs Kamara) but I would want to pick as high as possible in most leagues. But I do also feel like I can get close to the same player at 3 as at 6th and 7th. Just depends on your league.
    League is my home league with a mix of guys. I generally pick on the back end and do really good so I think that's what I'll aim for this year. As you said, once you hit the mid rounds you can really take advantage if you know your stuff and your league is just going off name value and rankings.

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