Caufield Raymond Holtz Newhook Eklund

[lusshouse]

Hi,

Keeper league in sig. It's a cap league that uses salary -- but it's irrelevant for this pick.

My team finished dead last and I'm in the middle of a rebuild. I own the first overall pick.

Caufield has 2 years left on ELC.
Raymond has 3 years left on ELC.
Holtz has 3 years left on ELC.
Newhook has 2 years left on ELC.
Eklund has 3 years (maybe 4) left on ELC.

My team is probably in contention in 2 or 3 years, when Rossi, Kakko, Petersen, Addison etc. reach their peak.

Caufield, Raymond, Holtz are RW.
Newhook plays all three F positions.
Eklund is LW.



Would you go for Caufield for two years? Or is the gap so little with Raymond or Holtz that the third year is worth more?
Or since I already have a few RWs, is the gap little enough to go for Newhook (least likely pick I'd say) or Eklund?

[Russian Rocket 10]

I've never been in a salad at cap league, but since you stated that salary isn't relevant to this question...

I choose Caufield.
Not sure if he has the best upside or likelihood of reaching it, but he's further along than the others already seeing top 6 minutes. While Raymond and Newhook may have comparable upside, it's difficult to select one of them when Caufield has already made a huge impression and gained a pretty long leash for this season. He also seems to be a lock for 1st PP.
Holtz and Eklund seem to be further away in their development at this point.

Caulfield

Raymond
Newhook

Eklund
Holtz

[Russian Rocket 10]

Plus, you're from Montreal, which makes this pick even sweeter.

[Pengwin7]

Definitely Caufield.
He's the only one of this group that is locked in for an NHL spot and significant NHL TOI/PPTOI this season.
That's major trade asset...

That said - IF you are in the middle of a rebuild, you take Caufield and then trade him as soon as you can.
His value probably won't guy higher than what it is now (based on last playoffs and what people remember).

If you are in a rebuild... then you need somebody/something for farther down the road.
Caufield's GREAT stats this season only serve to keep you out of the bottom - and the bottom of league probably has best shot at Shane Wright next summer, yes?



Does last place automatically get FIRST pick in each year's draft?
Because Shane Wright is a SERIOUS prize next summer and rebuilding teams need to be doing what they can do have a good shot at him.

[lusshouse]

Does last place automatically get FIRST pick in each year's draft?
Because Shane Wright is a SERIOUS prize next summer and rebuilding teams need to be doing what they can do have a good shot at him.

No.

Bottom 6 teams have a lottery. Last place team has 6 tickets out of 21 (so 28%). The McDavid year, the team with the least odds (1 out of 21, had finished 9th out of 14) won the lottery.

[lusshouse]

I mean, it's hard to tell where I'll be. Teams higher in the standings will also have cap issues at some point.

This year's impact is minimal to me -- I won't be contending.

But if all the chips fall right, maybe 2022-23? That would give me a single year out of Caufield ELC? I mean, he could bridge for 3 more years etc. VS Raymond or Newhook could turn out great AND sign right away 6 or 7 year deals, etc.

Nobody has a crystal ball, but you two guys seem to think there IS a gap between Caufield and the rest.


It's probably because I'm INDEED from Montreal, and so, I know just too well how we DESTROY our young players with exaggerated expectations.

[als_revenge]

For me, in points only - even with a cap, I'd draft the BPA and ignore the ELC. You're right, you have no idea who will sign a bridge contract versus an 8 year deal. I honestly don't think that one extra year will truly be the difference between whether or not you win or not in 3 years. So for me, I only look at Caufield and Raymond. Nobody else. And it's really close for me. And guy to my head, I'd take that guy on Yzerman's team over the guy on Bergevin's team. Though I think most people would go Caufield, especially with recency bias. (And no, I'm not accusing anyone in this post of suffering from any type of bias). Caufield is the safest pick IMO, I'm just not sure he'd by my pick.

[Feenom]

Caufield is of course the sexy pick right now. I like to think that Raymond will be the guy to own in about 2 years. So if you have CC then there is no better time to deal him than now. Good luck

[Belexus75]

Caufield is of course the sexy pick right now. I like to think that Raymond will be the guy to own in about 2 years. So if you have CC then there is no better time to deal him than now. Good luck

I agree… sell high on overblown hype…

[lusshouse]

I feel you... so why not just draft Raymond instead of CC?

Because as much as CC is hyped in my MTL-based draft, his value will lower day by day as his ELC diminishes, and people realise he has 80+ potential but not if when he hits a rough patch he gets shipped to the press box to "learn how to play better overall game".

[stevegamer]

I feel you... so why not just draft Raymond instead of CC?

Because as much as CC is hyped in my MTL-based draft, his value will lower day by day as his ELC diminishes, and people realise he has 80+ potential but not if when he hits a rough patch he gets shipped to the press box to "learn how to play better overall game".

I take him because his value won't lower day-by-day, it will rise and fall based on performance, and you will have most of the first month of the year to extract maximum value. His value right now is higher than Raymond by a lot in your league, and therefore is starting out worth more. Both of them are 'losing value due to the ELC expiring', so that's pretty much a wash.

[mdratch]

I take him because his value won't lower day-by-day, it will rise and fall based on performance, and you will have most of the first month of the year to extract maximum value. His value right now is higher than Raymond by a lot in your league, and therefore is starting out worth more. Both of them are 'losing value due to the ELC expiring', so that's pretty much a wash.

Yeah I agree with Steve here, Caufield is the high value pick.

[Invictus]

Because Shane Wright is a SERIOUS prize next summer and rebuilding teams need to be doing what they can do have a good shot at him.

Connor Bedard even godlier!