2nd Overall in Dynasty Startup Draft

[MaxK]

I was set on drafting Leon Draisaitl with the 2nd pick in a dynasty league startup draft, but I'm doubting myself a little bit as draft day gets closer and I wonder if Auston Matthews could be a better pick.

Matthews is 2 years younger, and has the upside to match Draisaitl's production in the future.

My rankings currently are : Draisaitl, Matthews, MacKinnon.

I've left out Kucherov since he's already 28 and he's not a sure bet to outproduce the other 3 younger forwards I am debating on.

I don't have any defensemen ranked in my top 10 and I have a hard time imagining drafting one with the 2nd overall pick, but I'm also starting to wonder if I should consider drafting Cale Makar.
He was already ranking 6th in FP/G in that scoring last season.
Elite defensemen with lots of TOI have done well in this format in previous years, like Carlson and Josi who finished 3rd and 5th in point total in 2019-2020.


Which one would you take ?


Leon Draisaitl (25 years old)

2018-2019 : 114.86 FPts - 1.4 FP/G
2019-2020 : 111.09 FPts - 1.56 FP/G
2020-2021 : 87.93 FPts - 1.57 FP/G


Auston Matthews (23 years old)

2018-2019 : 82.61 FPts - 1.21 FP/G
2019-2020 : 94.19 FPts - 1.35 FP/G
2020-2021 : 74.87 FPts - 1.44 FP/G


Nathan MacKinnon (25 years old)

2018-2019 : 108.36 FPts - 1.32 FP/G
2019-2020 : 95.39 FPts - 1.38 FP/G
2020-2021 : 66.67 FPts - 1.39 FP/G


Cale Makar (22 years old)

2018-2019 : -------------------------
2019-2020 : 67.45 FPts - 1.18 FP/G
2020-2021 : 59.81 FPts - 1.36 FP/G

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15 teams

Forwards Goals (G) 0,55
Forwards Assists (A) 0,55
Defense Goal (G) 0,65
Défense Assists (A) 0,65

Skaters Blocks (Blk) Default 0,0275
Skaters Hits (Hit) Default 0,0275
Skaters Fights (Ft) Default 0,025

Skaters Faceoffs Lost (FOL) Default -0,025
Skaters Faceoffs Won (FOW) Default 0,03

Skaters Game-winning Goals (GWG) Default 0,005
Skaters Shootout Goals (SG) Default 0,005
Skaters Overtime Goals (OG) Default 0,005
Skaters Power Play Goals (PPG) Default 0,005
Skaters Short-Handed Goals (SHG) Default 0,005

Skaters Shots on Goal (SOG) Default 0,02
Skaters Time On Ice (TOI) Default 0,025

(I left out goalie scoring as it's irrelevant to the question...)

[GinFizz]

No salary cap?
even though its irrelevant, id take Vas with 2 but since you asked,, Matthews would be my pick.

[Invictus]

Do you play positions? If so that's an easy yes on Draisaitl if he has wing eligibility.

[mdratch]

Without cap it's Drais for me, MacKinnon is close in Cap. Without a goal weighted pool, Matthews won't match Drais' points totals. He doesn't get enough assists and he is injured more often than Drais'.

[Feenom]

Neon Leon.

[snowball]

even though its the less ''fun'' pick vs Matthews and Mackinnon (since people hype them so much and its cool to have them), it'd still go Draisaitl.

[Swarley]

I’d most likely go draisaitl but you can’t go wrong with Mack or kuch either. If you were going anyone else I’d try and trade down to a later first and get them. Then get yourself a better second round pick.

[Belexus75]

Just drafted new league and I had 3 rd slot…could not decide between Mac and Matthews….then draft came and 2 Nd team took matthews….it was easy from there…took Leon

[Dr.Brad]

Or…. See if you can trade 2nd overall and your 3rd pick for something like 8th and 23rd. You might still get terrific value 1st rounder, then have 23 + 29. People might overpay to get Leon.

[gerbernomics]

Draisaitl for me too, the sheer production is too much to say no to. MacKinnon is a close 2nd imo.

[joeb323]

The way I look at it, you can’t really go wrong with your pick here. You’re going to get a top 5 elite player any way you slice it between Drai, Mack, Matthews or Kuch - all of them will become your team anchor for years to come (Kucherov loses out a bit being a bit older). I think your championship team will come from the other pieces you build around him.

Fantasy hockey is also meant to be fun - pick the guy of those 4 who you’d just love to have on your team most and run with it.

Personally I’d go with Draisaitl

[MaxK]

Thanks for all the helpful replies.

I'll stick with the 2nd pick and go Neon Leon.

No salary cap?
even though its irrelevant, id take Vas with 2 but since you asked,, Matthews would be my pick.

Forgot to mention it no salary cap !

As much as I like Vasy, those were the rankings for last season's (G)

Vasilevskiy : 65.84 FPts - 1.57 FP/G
Grubauer : 63.37 FPts - 1.58 FP/G
Varlamov : 62.43 FPts - 1.74 FP/G
Fleury : 60.07 FPts - 1.67 FP/G
Hellebuyck : 58.09 FPts - 1.29 FP/G

The gap in production in that league is too small for (G) as opposed to the gap between the top 3 forwards for me to consider it.

Do you play positions? If so that's an easy yes on Draisaitl if he has wing eligibility.

Yes !

4 (C)
6 (W)
2 (F)
6 (D)
2 (G)

That's a great point, Draisaitl has (C,W) eligibility on Fantrax.
Only player in last season's top 20 forwards to have double eligibility.

[Axeman33]

I'd rank them Draisaitl, MacKinnon and then Matthews. I might even put Pastrnak or Kucherov in front of Matthews. Neither is that old that they shouldnt be considered here.

[Pengwin7]

Matthews has been my #2 pick in new leagues for 3 years now... and I'm not changing it.
(Don't get me wrong, I love MacKinnon and Draisaitl. This is really a 2a, 2b, 2c situation. Any of the three is fine, there is NOT a clear consensus.)

The key metric, for me, in skater skill is even-strength points.
Matthews had 66pts last year (which shows up as about 20pts behind Draisaitl).

But Matthews split was as follows:
52gp: 53esp
52gp: 13ppp

Draisaitl:
56gp: 52esp (incl. 1shp)
56gp: 32ppp

So... at even-strength, Matthews is AS dynamic as Draisaitl, if not a bit moreso.
So, this is really more an investment in whether TOR's PP could improve or EDM's PP could decline.
Historically, elite players vary btw 25-35ppp per season... it usually normalizes... and I don't worry about that a ton.

I'm not super fond of Morgan Reilly running the Leafs PP1... and someday, this will change and get better.

Two years of youth is a decent thing.
And I'm taking this in a the three players in discussion here.

(*Also to be considered. Matthews is a Leaf... pretty much every league has a Leaf fan... and he's THE Leaf, whereas picking Draisaitl is like picking Malkin... just less "trade appeal" in owning a "2nd best" player on a team).

*re: Positions, dual-eligibility is not a decision-tipper in a 4C/6W/2F league... a team can run 6C/6W... so it's going to be super rare that you are forced to push a 7th-best C off your lineup and leave a W-slot empty - that's the condition where Draisaitl's C/W value would actually help - and that might be a very rare single Saturday or two.

[Belexus75]

Matthews has been my #2 pick in new leagues for 3 years now... and I'm not changing it.
(Don't get me wrong, I love MacKinnon and Draisaitl. This is really a 2a, 2b, 2c situation. Any of the three is fine, there is NOT a clear consensus.)

The key metric, for me, in skater skill is even-strength points.
Matthews had 66pts last year (which shows up as about 20pts behind Draisaitl).

But Matthews split was as follows:
52gp: 53esp
52gp: 13ppp

Draisaitl:
56gp: 52esp (incl. 1shp)
56gp: 32ppp

So... at even-strength, Matthews is AS dynamic as Draisaitl, if not a bit moreso.
So, this is really more an investment in whether TOR's PP could improve or EDM's PP could decline.
Historically, elite players vary btw 25-35ppp per season... it usually normalizes... and I don't worry about that a ton.

I'm not super fond of Morgan Reilly running the Leafs PP1... and someday, this will change and get better.

Two years of youth is a decent thing.
And I'm taking this in a the three players in discussion here.

(*Also to be considered. Matthews is a Leaf... pretty much every league has a Leaf fan... and he's THE Leaf, whereas picking Draisaitl is like picking Malkin... just less "trade appeal" in owning a "2nd best" player on a team).

*re: Positions, dual-eligibility is not a decision-tipper in a 4C/6W/2F league... a team can run 6C/6W... so it's going to be super rare that you are forced to push a 7th-best C off your lineup and leave a W-slot empty - that's the condition where Draisaitl's C/W value would actually help - and that might be a very rare single Saturday or two.

the math in year before that does not look as good for Matthews anymore