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Thread: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

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    Default NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    Every year there are those prospects that are hyped up as great fantasy owns but fall in the real NHL draft due to being seen as one-dimensional, small, sub-par skating, etc. This year seemed to have a few more than usual of those fantasy inclined players drop heavily from their mid-first projections to being drafted in the mid-second to third round.

    Notable names who fell this year:

    Aatu Raty - Ranked #15th on eliteprospect's consolidated rankings - fell to NYI @ 52

    Logan Stankoven - Ranked #27th - fell to DAL @ 47

    Simon Robertsson - Ranked #28th - fell to STL @ 71

    Sasha Pastujov - Ranked #32 - fell to ANA @ 66

    Ayrton Martino - Ranked ~#40 - fell to DAL @ 73



    If you had these players in the 10-20 range like a lot of pre-draft rankings, are you still willing to take them there over the guys who did indeed get chosen in the first round (ie Othmann, Bourgualt, Samoskevich, etc)? Or is the number of NHL teams passing enough to make you question their upside vs risk?

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    Default Re: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    Love this question and topic... some rep to you Jshed for getting this convo started.

    2 things - both of which tend to influence whether I'd stick with my 'pre-list' or defer to the 'post-draft' results.

    1) We sometimes forget that we're playing 'fantasy' while real GM's aren't. They're trying to build a team that wins. We're trying to build a team that scores (points mostly). Am I interested in drafting N.Allan (32 to CHI) because he's a first rounder over a 3rd rounder (Pastujov, Robertsson, Martino)... NO. Not unless I'm in an insanely deep league that value peripherals in a big way.

    2) More related to your specific question, would I take Othmann/etc. over Raty/etc. - yes. But that's primarily because their perceived value has increased now in the eyes of fellow GMs. I would prefer to pick, Othmann/etc. knowing that the guy I want Raty/etc. will almost for sure with my next pick. Plus I can likely swap Othmann/etc. for my guy + additional assets due to that perceived value.

    In the end, I still want "my guy" (the guy I personally had ranked highest) but I'm willing to try and draft for 'value' in most leagues with an eye to leveraging that later.

    If by chance I'm in a league where no one ever trades with anyone else... I'm still going with the Raty/etc. group over the higher chosen player.

    Awesome question - curious to hear where others land on this!
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    Default Re: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    I was actually surprised at how far some of these guys fell. I drafted both Stankhoven and Roberssson prior to the NHL entry draft and I was eagerly waiting to see where they landed at. At first I was concerned about how far they dropped but my main consideration is; Are they on teams that will have opportunities for them in the next 2-4 years? I would say the answer in both cases is yes. Obviously alot could happen between now and then but for now I'm pleased with how it turned out for me.
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    Default Re: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    Great thread - thanks for starting it jshed!

    I don't necessarily follow the NHL GMs when picking in my drafts. I look at a variety of factors - how soon will the prospect make the "show"; which team drafted him as that impacts his path to the NHL in addition to the style of play that team utilizes; how that player has been trending and which league he was developed under.

    I generally take the BPA given all the factors I usually consider with a secondary consideration being my particular needs for my team.

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    Default Re: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    If they fall in the NHL draft, I usually let someone else take them in fantasy drafts unless they fall there too, but they never do.

    I'm a firm believer that people who are professionals at scouting and drafting know a hell of a lot more than I do "me at" times. Sure they get it wrong as well sometimes but I like their odds of getting it right more so than a guy who just reads about these kids online.

    It's funny because I'm just reading this thread after commenting on the post your draft results thread about how many were reaching for Raty.
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    Default Re: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    If they fall in the NHL draft, I usually let someone else take them in fantasy drafts unless they fall there too, but they never do.

    I'm a firm believer that people who are professionals at scouting and drafting know a hell of a lot more than I do "me at" times. Sure they get it wrong as well sometimes but I like their odds of getting it right more so than a guy who just reads about these kids online.

    It's funny because I'm just reading this thread after commenting on the post your draft results thread about how many were reaching for Raty.
    Is the opposite also true though? If a GM reaches for a player early, would you also consider doing the same?

    I have to say though, I don't feel the same way. Especially as a fan of the NJ Devils who did some of the worst drafting I've seen during the late 90's and 2000's. For one, they're not drafting fantasy players. The guys they let drop could have tremendous fantasy upside whereas the one they select could have high floors and really great fundamentals but aren't worth much to the fantasy GM outside of really deep multi-cat leagues. The research I do isn't watching game tape and deciding for myself which guys I personally think are good. I usually watch several different scouting reviews; Dobber's, Scouching, EP, etc... While I realize I'm never as informed as a professional scout, it's also true that those scouts aren't scouting for fantasy players. I guess it also helps/hurts that our entry draft happens before the NHL draft so I don't get to bias my opinions based on what the NHL teams did.
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    Pro Roster Starters: 9 F, 6 D 1 G

    FWD: Hertl, Forsberg, Quinn, Rantanen, Debrincat, Couturier, Dach, Trocheck, Larkin, Seguin
    D: Chychrun, Grzelcyk, Trouba, Burns, Walman, Karlsson, Graves
    G: Kahkkonen, Keumper, Reimer

    Farm (notables):
    F: Pekarcik, Dellandrea, Cowan, Puistola, Halttunen, Simoneau, Bolduc, Nadeau, Stankhoven
    D: Brzustewicz, Alexeyev, Jiricek, Reinbacher, Minnetian
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    Default Re: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post

    I'm a firm believer that people who are professionals at scouting and drafting know a hell of a lot more than I do "me at" times. Sure they get it wrong as well sometimes but I like their odds of getting it right more so than a guy who just reads about these kids online.
    This is really interesting and sometimes I "trust" the team versus all the prospect analysts but the flipside is that sometimes teams pick players for specific roles that do not help us much in fantasy. Teams will draft players with great character that they project to be bottom 6 guys that won't really help us much in fantasy over the more skilled player. I'll take the skilled player drafted later who has a bigger bust potential because if he hits his ceiling you have a player that you can use. I remember listening to a podcast with an LA scout talking about when they drafted IIRC Kyle Clifford. They knew he had a lower ceiling but he had all the intangibles. Clifford was an important part of their Cup winning team but he wasn't rostered on many fantasy teams. But yeah-I do find myself trusting the teams over the analysts when players are comparable in skill and projection. Last year I chose Raymond over Rossi even though a lot of writers had Rossi at #4. I went with Yzermen over the Corey Pronmans of the world. Granted, today I drafted Johnson over McTavish.
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    Default Re: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Daydream Nation View Post
    This is really interesting and sometimes I "trust" the team versus all the prospect analysts but the flipside is that sometimes teams pick players for specific roles that do not help us much in fantasy. Teams will draft players with great character that they project to be bottom 6 guys that won't really help us much in fantasy over the more skilled player. I'll take the skilled player drafted later who has a bigger bust potential because if he hits his ceiling you have a player that you can use. I remember listening to a podcast with an LA scout talking about when they drafted IIRC Kyle Clifford. They knew he had a lower ceiling but he had all the intangibles. Clifford was an important part of their Cup winning team but he wasn't rostered on many fantasy teams. But yeah-I do find myself trusting the teams over the analysts when players are comparable in skill and projection.
    I think another part of this is how teams tend to manage risk. Whether its right or not, teams often tend to be risk adverse - especially in rounds one and two. A player like Raty is a very risky pick in that he's likely boom or bust at this point, and with most teams only having picked once or twice by the time we got to 52, all it would take is having a single name still available who they rate at lower risk for them to go in that direction instead.

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    Default Re: NHL Entry Draft - Falling Prospects

    Let's be honest, the draft position is only a starting point for any prospect and their career. That's why you see so many early picks falter and stall after the draft, and later picks somehow make it over earlier picks. It's the work you put into it after they are drafted. Some work harder than others, look to improve their game deficiencies, listen to coaches, develop at a faster rate.

    None of us really know who will do what from here on out. I'm just trusting the professionals judgement that they like some kids more than others for whatever reason they'd never share with us. Do I follow it to a tee? Of course not. I am not a pro scout but I try and read as many opinions from those who are more adapted to give those opinions.

    If a kid like Raty is passed over twice, by teams that aren't that good and need all the help they can get, that really screams "don't reach for him" to me in my fantasy drafts. His on ice talent may scream awesome but his off ice attitude and interpersonal skills may scream no thanks to teams.
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