[TRADE] Keith to the Oilers

[Moses]

Maybe I am undervaluing Caleb Jones, but this looks like Keith for a 3rd and a guy that they weren't going to protect. Sure $5.5M may not be ideal, but Duncan Keith is (was?) a hell of a defenceman. Who else were the Oilers going to get to play D next year? The Oilers need to overpay AND overterm to attract free agents. This is $2M more than you may want to spend on a guy like Keith, but this doesn't lock them in for the long term. If the Oilers are going to be a contender they need to dramatically reshape their blueline. This looks like a step in the right direction.

[rataylor22]

i think you're overvaluing Keith

[chuckcouples]

Who else were the Oilers going to get to play D next year? The Oilers need to overpay AND overterm to attract free agents.

Why would you think this? There are probably less than a dozen NHL players who would not love to play on a team with 2 of the 5 (10?) best players in the NHL. All teams overpay and "overterm" on free agents but that does not give Holland any kind of an excuse to give up the two best assets in a trade for a 38 year old dman. (the two best assets are Caleb Jones and cap room)

[Moses]

^^ if any unrestricted free agent chooses Edmonton, over any/every other team (who is offering a contract) in the league, it is because the Oilers outbid them. Supply and demand. If you are a middling small-market Canadian team then you are going to have to pay more than other NHL teams to attract talent. This is not strictly an Edmonton problem.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/f...ll/defense/ufa

^^ This is the list of 2021 UFA of Defenseman. How many of these guys do you want over Duncan Keith? How much and for how long do they sign in Edmonton for?

…
I do agree with you that the cap space is the most valuable asset in this deal.

[hockeymanG23]

Nope. Has nothing to do with an NMC. I posted the language of the rule in an earlier post.

Here is the list of exempt for injury players...

Ryan Kesler, Anaheim Ducks

Marian Hossa, Arizona Coyotes

Brandon Dubinsky, Columbus Blue Jackets

Brent Seabrook, Chicago Blackhawks

Andrew Shaw, Chicago Blackhawks

Stephen Johns, Dallas Stars

Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit Red Wings

Corey Crawford, New Jersey Devils

Luca Sbisa, Nashville Predators

Johnny Boychuk, New York Islanders

Matt Niskanen, Philadelphia Flyers

Zach Trotman, Pittsburgh Penguins

Alex Steen, St. Louis Blues

Marian Gaborik, Tampa Bay Lightning

Anders Nilsson, Tampa Bay Lightning

Micheal Ferland, Vancouver Canucks

Bryan Little, Winnipeg Jets

Henrik Lundqvist, Washington Capitals

I don't know that there is an NMC in the bunch...

This is what I'm talking about, NMCs do matter with regards to exemption.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...ion-landscape/

Maybe I missed a link in one of your posts that showed these other players as exempt and I'm unsure why some of those players would be on such a list, but there is no incentive to take a player with a career threatening condition.

I did notice that some of those players were suspended, retired, or upcoming UFAs in addition to being injured so there are multiple reasons to avoid many of them.

[forsbergfan]

some rumor talk about bringing seth jones younger brother to chicago to make him sign there in a deal with columbus it worth what it worth

This was EXACTLY what popped into my mind when I heard about the trade. Jones basically controls his own destiny, as no team will want to trade for him without a guarantee of him signing long term. Supposedly that's why he's not in Philly - he doesn't want to commit long term to them now. Chicago is one of the teams that have been heavily rumored to be after Jones - now they get his brother... Seems like an incentive for him to sign with them. Very smart move. To me, that's the key to this deal, even more important than uploading Keith's contract.

[Axeman33]

Why would you think this? There are probably less than a dozen NHL players who would not love to play on a team with 2 of the 5 (10?) best players in the NHL. All teams overpay and "overterm" on free agents but that does not give Holland any kind of an excuse to give up the two best assets in a trade for a 38 year old dman. (the two best assets are Caleb Jones and cap room)

It's common knowledge that most FAs don't want to play in Canadian cities. Why do you think most limited NTCs have eight teams. The seven Canadian teams and Buffalo.

At the end of the day, I don't think the assets going out are a big loss for Keith. It's his cap hit for the production that's the issue for most. Who knows what it would have cost to sign FAs to come here but we know what DK costs.

I look at Duncan Keith as a fine steak. Chicago has eaten all the good meat and Holland just acquired the bone and grizzle.

As an Oilers fan, all I can do is hope this trade reinvigorates DK to return to some part of his former self. He wanted out of Chicago, he got his wish. Now play good damn you!

[2014olympicgold]

I skimmed this since my last post, but Edmonton sent a conditional 3rd that can become a 2nd if they make the finals and Keith is a top 4 d-man in TOI. It's a stretch, and if you make it to the finals whatever, but to need to put a condition to upgrade your 3rd round pick in this deal is insane.

Edmonton is out to lunch on this move. If you're thinking about his "intangibles", why not call Tampa about one of their players who just won for a trade? Like would Tyler Johnson cost more than what Keith just did?

[lobo1969]

^^ if any unrestricted free agent chooses Edmonton, over any/every other team (who is offering a contract) in the league, it is because the Oilers outbid them. Supply and demand. If you are a middling small-market Canadian team then you are going to have to pay more than other NHL teams to attract talent. This is not strictly an Edmonton problem.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/f...ll/defense/ufa

^^ This is the list of 2021 UFA of Defenseman. How many of these guys do you want over Duncan Keith? How much and for how long do they sign in Edmonton for?

…
I do agree with you that the cap space is the most valuable asset in this deal.

This argument doesn't really apply in this case. Keith wanted to get out of Chicago to a western team to be closer to his family (reportedly). He had the Oilers at the top of his list of teams he would waive his NMC for. So it was Chicago that was held over a barrel to make a deal happen and Edmonton shouldn't really have had to overpay for this asset what so ever because not many teams were able to bid for Keith.

[2014olympicgold]

His son lives in Penticton BC and saw him (8yrs old) once during an 8month stretch. Makes sense why he wanted out of Chicago, but doesn't give a reason why Edmonton paid what they did. Actually makes it worse because his trade destinations would be Edmonton, Vancouver, and Seattle. That's it. And Vancouver doesn't have the cap for acquiring Keith really.

[Turbo_Supremo]

One thing I don't really see being mentioned here about Keith's contract, is the amount of actual money he is being paid. Yes he carries a 5.5mil cap hit for 2 more years, but he is actually only being paid 2.1mil this year and 1.5mil next year. So yes it counts as 11mil on the books for cap purposes, but to Edmonton's front office, he is only costing them 3.6mil.

It is a fancy way of making it look like you are a 'CAP' team, when you actually aren't.

[2014olympicgold]

There's also a weird thing that happens with his deal that's similar to Luongo's retirement. Chicago gets hit with a penalty if Keith retires prior to the end of his deal.

Blackhawks penalty if he retires after 2021-22 season:
2022-23 Penalty - 5.5mill
2023-24 Penalty - 2mill

Edmonton's Savings if he retires after 2021-22 season:
2022-23 Savings - 3.4mill (only pays 2.1mill of his deal...I think)



I doubt Keith "screws" the Hawks over.

[rataylor22]

^^ if any unrestricted free agent chooses Edmonton, over any/every other team (who is offering a contract) in the league, it is because the Oilers outbid them. Supply and demand. If you are a middling small-market Canadian team then you are going to have to pay more than other NHL teams to attract talent. This is not strictly an Edmonton problem.

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/f...ll/defense/ufa

^^ This is the list of 2021 UFA of Defenseman. How many of these guys do you want over Duncan Keith? How much and for how long do they sign in Edmonton for?

…
I do agree with you that the cap space is the most valuable asset in this deal.

At the same or higher salary, I would want Hamilton, Goligoski, Hjalmarsson, Savard, Larsson, over Keith. At the salary they are likely to sign for? I would want most of the list over Keith.

[lobo1969]

At the same or higher cap hit, I would want Hamilton, Goligoski, Hjalmarsson, Savard, Larsson, over Keith. At the salary they are likely to sign for? I would want most of the list over Keith.

Fixed that for you. Actually salary paid will be much lower.

[tweetdrivr]

There's also a weird thing that happens with his deal that's similar to Luongo's retirement. Chicago gets hit with a penalty if Keith retires prior to the end of his deal.

Blackhawks penalty if he retires after 2021-22 season:
2022-23 Penalty - 5.5mill
2023-24 Penalty - 2mill

Edmonton's Savings if he retires after 2021-22 season:
2022-23 Savings - 3.4mill (only pays 2.1mill of his deal...I think)



I doubt Keith "screws" the Hawks over.

I already posted this.