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Thread: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

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    Default I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    *UPDATE AT POST 23 on Page 2*

    League in signature and everything should be in there for those that want to most information possible before replying.

    Obviously, I will try and trade whoever I’m not keeping before we have to set our keepers. Whether I trade them for picks or a 2-for-1 to try and upgrade one of my current 8 keepers. (Example: I tried Ovechkin and Hellebuyck for Draisaitl) no luck.

    I just think that with my free keepers (minors eligible) goalies being Samsonov, Sorokin and Swayman, I don’t think I need to keep Hellebuyck going into next year, especially if I means I’d have to lose (drop or trade) one of more current 8 keepers.

    Tough call for me…but that happens when you are champ.

    Any thoughts?
    Last edited by notch4077; September 25, 2021 at 8:09 PM.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    In a roto league I would hate to lose Bucky. H2H that makes more sense to me given the variance week over week. And while you've got a ton of potential at minors G, none of those guys are volume starter locks by any stretch. If you can't trade any, I'd be inclined to drop Hamilton before Bucky. Unless he re-signs with the Canes prior to your keeper selection. He wasn't elite the first year with the Canes, and I think he'll have a down year adjusting to a new team (and the team to him). If he does re-sign before keeper selection, I don't know. Don't envy the drop.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    Totally agree with, Locke.

    Wait until something happens with Hamilton, then sell him on the hype.

    Hellebuyck has to be kept.

    If you're in a fortunate situation next year and all your minor goalies are taking the reigns, then you can sell Hellebuyck, or one of the others, to a GM in need and you'll get a way better return.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    Tough call indeed! I think most will agree, the only Goalie that might be considered a sure thing is Vasi. However, some have included Hellebuyck in that assessment. I got curious, so I looked at his career numbers. The thing that sticks out is consistency. He hasn't put up a year with God like numbers, but he hasn't completely shit the bed either, decent numbers over his 5 years and the guy is a workhorse. Tough to cut a guy like that. I like your farm guys, but if you want the 4peat I think you are going to need a legit starter with decent numbers and then stream the rest. In a 12 team league keep 8, what are the chances of drafting that legit starter? So, that's a big consideration there.

    So, assuming you are comfortable moving Hellebuyck, the next big question is what kind of a return can you get for him? I like packaging him up like you did when you went after Draisaitl and I would continue to work that. Go after Marner or Matthews, if the owner is a Leaf's fan they are both in the dog house (:

    The last resort would be moving guys for picks. Ideally, you do a 2 for 1, improve your core and still have guys to move to improve your draft.

    Anyway, just sort of thinking out loud here. I think you know what to do here if you choose to dangle Hellbuyck, it's just a matter of whether you can pull it off or not. You could be in for a busy summer (:
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    I'd trade away (or drop if need be) Hammy or honestly even OV (age factor) before I'd drop Helly.

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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    I think that you need to wait this one out and make a deal around one of your skater keepers when a deal presents itself. On paper I can see why you want to drop Hellebuyck, however, in practice I know that once the season starts I would want Hellebuyck on my roster over a marginally better skater.

    I have always believed that "goaltending rarely wins you fantasy hockey leagues but it often loses you championships". This is what I thought of when reading your post.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    in the 12 team league with 8 keepers...if you can not trade one of the 9 players you shoudl keep (8 you got plus Helly) i would just leave probably lol

    i mean if this league is even semi active there should be tons of offers for either Helly or Hamilton...and i agree i would keep Helly here if it comes to it.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Belexus75 View Post
    in the 12 team league with 8 keepers...if you can not trade one of the 9 players you shoudl keep (8 you got plus Helly) i would just leave probably lol

    i mean if this league is even semi active there should be tons of offers for either Helly or Hamilton...and i agree i would keep Helly here if it comes to it.
    Goalie value is at it's lowest in the off-season in semi keeper leagues like this, as everyone knows they can draft a goalie in the re-draft.

    Vasilevskiy is the only true "star" goalie, outside of that most people don't see Hellebuyck as any different than a Varlmov or a Gibson or someone they can probably pick up in the 3rd round.

    You'll never get true value for a goalie by trading them in the offseason, but come start of the season when people start to panic because they waited to long in the draft, or are questioning if they'll get enough starts, that's when you can maximize return.

    Hellebuyck is a steady commodity, like the Nicklas Backstrom (Skater) of goal tending.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    There’s only 2 goalies I would keep in fantasy. Helly is one and the other is Vas. Might be a few more out there but those 2 are the top of the heap as guaranteed starters.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    I'd drop Ovi and keep Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck is arguably the second best goalie in the league, Ovi is not the second best LW anymore and you'll need a starting goalie.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    Some great advice here. An enviable group of players, but not enough protection spots, ah, the rich man's dilemma. The window to trade Ovechkin for his value has passed. I own Ovi in 3 keeper/dynasty leagues and I'm keeping him until he's done in the NHL and rebuild later.

    Obviously a 2 for 1 trade is ideal, but hard to do with some owners likely being resentful of your dominance, making trading more difficult. If I have to drop someone, I might be leaning towards Hamilton. His points production is great, shots on goal are excellent for a defenseman, plus/minus is very good on Carolina, but who knows where he will play next season? Hits and Blocked Shots are way below average and Blocked Shots is crucial from your back end. That said, his numbers scream top 10 defensemen if he stays in Carolina.

    Hellebuyck this year was 5th in Wins, 1st in Saves, 13th in Save Percentage and 18th in GAA. Last year, he was 2nd in Wins, 1st in Saves, 7th in Save Percentage and 14th in GAA. He also was 1st and 2nd in games played over the last two seasons.

    Personally, I'm leaning towards keeping the Keeper, but it's a Sophie's Choice for sure. Good luck with your trade attempts and/or your decision.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    Have you considered trying to bundle up one of your keepers with one of those farm goalies for draft pick(s) to open up a slot? Your farm goalies are solid, but not entirely proven. I'd be spending draft capital for something more proven this fall. You could even make a case for Varlamov over Hellebuyck to maintain the valuable Isles' tandem.

    You really just have this one-time window where your farm goalies will remain farm eligible so you really have to be willing to embrace uncertainty in goal if you dump Hellebuyck. Or you have to be convinced one of them is going to be a keeper, which I wouldn't be.

    That said, goaltending tends to fluctuate enough that there's merit in embracing uncertainty. I remember doing a study on goaltenders and finding that in the 2010s we stopped seeing goalies maintain top-5 status for beyond 3-year runs. Hellebuyck may have just had his 3-year run and maybe he starts to dip. Perhaps he wasn't even consistent enough for a 3-year run, which only proves the point. Bottom line, we think we have these tentpoles in net like Rask, Bobrovsky, Price, Holtby, Gibson, Quick, etc. but it typically ends before you know it. The last guy with an extended run was probably Lundqvist. Hate to make a decision based purely on trends and not actually the player/situation but I find myself leaning more and more towards punting goaltending.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    How dare you drop the greatest goalie we ever knew! THIS IS TREASON! TREASON I SAY! And I won't stand for it!!! :P
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    I would drop Hamilton and keep Hellebuyck. I would much rather have a solid #1 goalie and not have to worry a bunch about getting starts and quality numbers.
    I traded Hellebuyck late last season for Rask and a 3rd rounder in a 12 team keep 5 and hope to get a quality goalie back early in the draft. I hope I don't end up regretting it. I rode quality goaltending for the last couple of years after having it burn me before that. As much as there are tenders to be had in the draft, they are just as likely to fizzle (Binnington last year) as they are to shine.
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    Default Re: I think I’m dropping Hellebuyck. Strategic advice needed.

    Just adding to the consensus here but I believe Hellebuyck is a must keep. I think if you were to rank your available keeper options in order of Most Valuable Keeper, everyone here would put Hellebuyck near the top of that list. By running with your minors eligible goalies you're going for goalie category wins by committee and not by a bonafide number 1 as you would in Hellebuyck which I think is an important distinction.
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