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Thread: Best guide for 2020-221 season

  1. #1
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    Default Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Hello poolers,

    Want to know which hockey pool list of projections was best for a one-year, straight points-only draft for the 2020-21 season?
    I did, so I went and ran 39 different guides, draft kits, cheat sheets and lists through more than 2.9 million simulations to find out.

    If you are interested to know, you can check out my YouTube videos to see the results.
    -The Intro (I recommend you start with this video)
    -The Repechage
    -The Finals (edited for correct link)

    -The Finals (sorry this one goes to the 2015-16 Finals)


    Demetri.
    Last edited by peeknpoke; June 12, 2021 at 5:19 AM. Reason: correct link

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Interesting! The link to the finals video takes me to 2015/16 though.

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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Thanks for pointing that out audiopile.

    I have corrected the original post but I'll put the correct link to the 2020-21 Finals here too.

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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Left Wing Lock goes from first in qualifiers to last in Semi's lol in a qualifying pool Dobber hockey got 5th, but then in the Semi's improved to 4th.
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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Hello Invictus. I am not sure what your are attempting to say with your comment. It could be interpreted in many ways. Would you mind explaining it a little bit more?

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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Seems odd and that there's too many changing variables to make conclusions on.
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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    There are nine factors and I have done what I could to address each one.

    #1 - The number of poolers (or owners) - The Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides has 8 fighting against each other, each and every time. I am limited by the equipment that I have at the moment. Just going up 1 or 2 more will take months to go through all the permutations. The ideas is that by the time we go through the qualifier rounds, semis, and repechage event to get to the finals, we have the best ones fighting against each other. The limitation is if the guide is in my collection of lists.

    #2 - The number of draft rounds - I take the final standings at 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and whatever the maximum number of rounds that could be drafted. I try to point out where there are any strengths or weaknesses.

    #3 - Order of selection process - This is the mechanism to determine who drafts in which position. My testing has all 8 poolers drafting in every possible permutation, so every pooler has an equal and fair chance.

    #4 - The actual place in the draft order - Slightly different than #3 but related, this is what actual position that a pooler ends up drafting in and who is drafting around them. Again, all permutations are accounted for.

    #5 - Strength of the competition - We all know that some drafts are real easy and other are difficult. The strength/experience of the competition can matter. This is one of the points that are you are illustrating by your observation.

    #6 - Common thinking - When two or more poolers have the same thoughts or similar rankings, do they start to cannibalize each others chances? Implied in your observations.

    #7 - The day of the draft - The closer to the start of the NHL season, the more likely each pooler has the same information to formulate their thoughts on. My testing assumes that the simulations all take place the night before the official NHL season start date.

    #8 - Individual research - This isn't so much a factor for these guides because it is their research that is being tested. This is more of a factor for us, the people who purchase and consume others evaluations and if we do or do not make adjustments.

    #9 - Influence - Can you be influenced into making a bad selection? Can you influence others to make bad selections? The testing that I perform does not allow for this because all lists are drafted from in order without exception. But if you were at a draft can you convince others into making a bad pick and/or can you be tempted by someone else into making a selection that isn't the best possible?

    This testing does not include any allowance for trading or waiver claims. It also is just for point-only pools.

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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Interesting study.

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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Hmm. Didn't think of going about it like that.
    I would think comparing actual points to project points and doing a stats analysis (STD Deviation) would achieve that same result with less effort. idk.
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  10. #10
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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Thank you hockeyrobot.


    Invictus, there are a few people out there that do measure by std deviation, or mean sq root, or within "x" number of points by each of those methods do have gaps in them which can be exploited or be misleading.


    Take your favourite guide and multiply every point prediction by 10. The std dev analysis will mostly be worse for each player, yet the ranking of the players will be the same.
    Some ranked lists do not include points, therefore, they cannot be analyzed by that method but who is to say that they are not better.


    Another example, what if the best ranked player was off their prediction by 15 points. Is that good or bad? It depends.


    Despite the prediction being off by 15 points it is indifferent if they are actually the best player in the NHL that season.
    If, however, there are other players that do better and this player drops from being the best to being the #7 player then there is a problem.
    If you had first pick, you would be fine if they remained the top player, but you would be cursing the gods if they were the #7 guy and it cost you a victory.
    Std dev on the prediction doesn't measure that.


    What if they point prediction was perfect for that player?
    It would be excellent if they ended up as the best player in the league but what would the result be for you if they ended up in 7th? It was a perfect prediction and yet it would have been bad if you selected that player with the first overall pick because 6 other players that you passed up on performed better in the NHL. What if you didn't have 1st pick, but had 7th pick and you got him then?


    Then there is the case if one guide predicts a player that all the other guides don't.
    Some std dev measurements only look at players that were predicted by all the guides, trying to compare apples to apples.
    This is their way of controlling or minimizing the effect of comparing a guide with 700 predictions to others which have 300 or so predictions, but that isn't quite fair.
    What if there is a player of significance that is excluded from the std dev calc comparisons?


    Any rating system, including my own, is going to have gaps.
    I think my Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides does a better job because it acknowledges those gaps and it focuses on predicted ranks instead of predicted points.


    I do appreciate your observations Invictus.
    Challenging my methodology is a good thing.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Hi everyone,

    Here are the results* that I've computed over the last 8 seasons. There is one two-time champion!

    2013-14 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Finals
    2013-14 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Repechage
    2013-14 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers and Semi-Finals

    2014-15 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Finals
    2014-15 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Repechage
    2014-15 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers and Semi-Finals

    2015-16 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Finals
    2015-16 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Repechage
    2015-16 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers and Semi-Finals

    2016-17 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Finals and Bonus Battles
    2016-17 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Repechage
    2016-17 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers and Semi-Finals

    2017-18 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Finals
    2017-18 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Repechage
    2017-18 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers and Semi-Finals

    2018-19 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Finals
    2018-19 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Repechage
    2018-19 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers and Semi-Finals

    2019-20 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Finals
    2019-20 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Semi-Final 2
    2019-20 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Semi-Final 1
    2019-20 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers Yellow
    2019-20 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers Green
    2019-20 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers Orange
    2019-20 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers Purple
    2019-20 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers Blue

    2020-21 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Finals
    2020-21 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Repechage
    2020-21 Battle of the Hockey Pool Guides – Qualifiers and Semi-Finals


    * After these videos were produced I have collected a few more lists and I continue to be on the lookout for others. At some point in time I will re-run the simulations to include all the additional lists.
    Who knows how it might change things.

    I am currently working on the 2012-13 season and also preparing for the 2021-22. So I'm being pulled in both directions

    I hope you find them interesting.

    Good luck in your pools!

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Wow.
    wow.
    wow.
    wow.

    Granted I only watched one 7min video (2020-21 Battle - Finals), but I'm very impressed by the system. I gave the video it's 2nd thumbs up with a LIKE.
    Pool Pro! Never heard of them. Have to check them out!
    I did like the info at 5:54min onward about how having a Top3 pick resulted in a 46% chance at winning.
    I've been touting that info for a long time... that if given a choice of pick... #1 is best, then #2, then #3...
    And yet people still say stuff like "I like drafting in the middle" or "I like to pick at end of first round". Hogwash.
    Good to see some supporting statistical proof.

    I'll definitely be watching many more of these!!!

    Great work peeknpoke!!!

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    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    This is amazing, and I'm going to have to take a look. I used to like buying a magazine every year or two for the reading. I am very, very, very much a read on paper over read on digital.

    I'm generally a guy who wants to pick near but not at the top in one year leagues in other sports. I have no clue about non-dynasty formats in hockey (for proof see the mock draft I did on the forums) since I've never played one.

    Rankings by PPG had amazing performance.
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  14. #14
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    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Is Pool Pro available in English? I could only find a French-language version.
    One Year. 11 teams. Points only. G=1. A=1. GWG=1. W=2. SO=3
    8 F, 4D, 2G. 5 drops all year. ***NO BENCH, NO IR, SWAP D for D, F for F, G for G ONLY***
    F: P Kane, Wheeler, Kucherov, Malkin, Batherson, Crosby, Eichel, Point
    D: Carlson, Q Hughes, Barrie, Karlsson
    G: Demko, Ullmark


  15. #15
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    Dobber Sports Sophomore

    Default Re: Best guide for 2020-221 season

    Quote Originally Posted by Aerofoil View Post
    Is Pool Pro available in English? I could only find a French-language version.
    French only as far as I could tell.

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