What is Cole Perfetti's upside?

[Eli26]

This time I am not saying anything and asking you guys what his season-to-season projections should look like and what his peak production could be.

[Stencil]

21-22: 0 pts
22-23: 35 pts
23-24: 55 pts
24-25: 65 pts
25-26: 55 pts
26-27: 75 pts

[Axeman33]

I think he's a few years out but he's a future 2C there. As long as Scheifele is there, it'll limit him some but if it works out right, I can see him becoming a decent 60-65pt guy most years with potential for more depending on usage.

[Eli26]

Damn... just traded Timo Meier to get him and these are the expectations? DAMMIT! :P

But I like the honesty of your opinions.

[Axeman33]

Damn... just traded Timo Meier to get him and these are the expectations? DAMMIT! :P

But I like the honesty of your opinions.

None of us own a crystal ball so all we're doing is guessing. That being said, I prefer Meier vs Perfetti but sounds like that doesn't matter much now.

[Eli26]

Axeman, prepare to be dazzled by my response. Waiting for more to chime in and then I will come in later and say what I think. But you're right, nobody knows for sure, but I like my track record on guessing these things and how they play out. Not always right but when I feel strong on something, I commit and rarely get the shit end of it. Can I say shit? Guess we'll see after I post this. haha

Anyway, so I had Aho being better than Laine, I said how Gaudreau would be a 26 goal, 67 point rookie, was off by 2 goals and 3 points. So close! I also said he would be a 79 point sophomore, he got 78. I also said he had 90 point best. He beat that by 9. I also tabbed Hellebuyck and Saros as future Vezina winners. So far 1 for 2, and now waiting for Saros to win his, and this was before their pro careers. I have this system, how a player looks. Their style of game, attributes, if they have any hurdles/players in the way, hockey IQ, who would their linemates look like, usage, and the belief whether they dot all the i's and cross all the t's. Long story short, not much different from any other formula. But yeah, it's a guessing game, but one that has put me usually on the right side more often than not, which has led me to finding success in fantasy hockey and why I can't quit this beautiful game.

Now where I was wrong, I thought Nikita Kucherov would become another Filatov/Chistov Russian who would fizzle out as an NHLer. Great talent, but yeah, the stigma of lazy Russian who doesn't want to work hard or can't adapt. I have since gotten away from that line of thinking. I admit, I loathed Draisaitl's skating at first and felt he was skating with a boulder behind him while in mud when I watched some old video. Must have been blind or inhaling something that day, because that's definitely not the case now. Both Kucherov and Draisaitl have since made me look bad. Heck, I even traded Aho and Gaudreau to get Draisaitl. Funny where life takes you. lol Oh man, so thankful I signed Gaudreau, as I was also right about Monahan being his anchor, holding him back. With Monahan, he had 27 points in 40 games, sans Monahan, he has 22 points in his last 16 games. I can always say I got him for nothing. :'( I even drafted Nic Petan over Kucherov who went a spot later in our draft. AHHHH! I assume he was an FA or someone left him exposed on their roster. Either way, FRRRRRKKKK!!!

[Eli26]

The only issue I have with Timo Meier (and it's a bit of a whopper), as it can limit him, is his lack of hockey IQ. He's all about size, speed, and tenacity... using that combination to create havoc around the net. I watched him closely this year and he didn't seem like the driver type that could generate offence by himself on a consistent basis. What I did witness is a good complimentary player that was smart enough to know how to use his body, shot, and speed to create space and chances off the rush and in the offensive zone. This allowed his teammates time and space to capitalize. Think prime James Neal, but less power and polish on his shot and more speed and power in his skating stride. Great opportunistic players that can get on the board with better players who can drive the play. While the skill showed, the hockey head left a lot to be desired. I watched a lot of Sharks hockey having 3 San Jose players. His top out is his 18/19 season. Which suffice to say isn't bad, I just think Cole Perfetti's upside is higher.

The thing about Perfetti's offensive game, he can burn you in a lot of ways. He has a lightening quick release and is so smart at picking his spots, and knowing how things will fall in place... like where his guys will be and how to best execute a play. He's a chess player who can thread a pass to anyone. In fact he was considered the past passer and depending to whom you talked to, the smartest player in the 2020 NHL Draft. Or at the very least, he was up there. His AHL Rookie of the Month honours in April came at the height of a 7 game stretch where he had 13 points (4g, 9a). So his trajectory from playing with kids to adult men as a teenager is tracking well. He hasn't hit any real major speed bumps in his development, which should lend oneself to ask, what would his year look like under a normal AHL season, considering how short it was and how long it takes for one to adapt to the pro level.

Having the good fortune of being one of the few OHLers last year to play in the AHL or overseas this past season, and with it the continued success, his game looks very close to being NHL ready, especially if his April production was any indicator. And while his natural position is center, he could switch to wing if he makes the Winnipeg Jets roster next Fall. Even if Kevin Cheveldayoff signs Pierre-Luc Dubois to a contract, which is hard to know for certain based on his lacklustre production thus far. That being said, when you factor into the cost of moving Jack Roslovic and Patrik Laine for said player, it probably makes him a good candidate to be resigned by Chevy on a 1 or 2 year bridge "prove it deal." I am thinking the first and not the latter. Anything more than a year at $5 million per could be dangerous given the most recent eye-test and production with the Jets. The point is PLD is not necessarily in Perfetti's way. In fact, it's in my opinion that Cole has the potential to leapfrog Dubois. Then as I said before, there is always the wing option.

So what we have is a younger player that could either play into the 2LC role as soon as next year or even play onto the top line wing, esp if Blake Wheeler ages himself out of his role by taking another step back. While Wheeler's passing is still on point, his speed and defensive game really took a hit this past year. Also like Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti is a perfectionist who's a student of the game. Maybe even a bit hard on himself. Notice when he scores, he seldom if ever smiles in response to a goal. He almost seems not satisfied, where the other Cole (Caufield) is usually always all smiles, regardless of the game, and what's on line. Perfetti is a kid who constantly watches video on players, taking into account what makes them so effective, learning how to evolve his game. From watching Mark Stone and how he steals pucks and using an active stick to separate his man from the puck, to Patrick Kane, how he handles the puck with his fast hands, weaving in and out of tight spaces since they are both smaller in frame and reach, and finally to how he can read and use his linemates offensively and pick his spots like Nikita Kucherov. The worst aspect of his game is his skating... he doesn't have the speed of a Meier, but what he lacks in foot races, he makes up for it in positioning and know where to be as to not burn himself and be behind a play, but be involved in it.

I guess I will always have more confidence behind a kid who has an elite hockey IQ and a solid skillset that can't be taught, "you either have it or not", over a guy who might be bigger and faster, but lack the smarts. You can always become stronger and adapt to getting quicker on your feet and build strength in your legs to go faster. We have seen many players achieve this.

I guess I chimed in sooner than I thought I would.

Finally (I know, it's a lot to take in), I see the AHL stint pushing him ahead in his development, unfortunately thanks to current events, allowing him to crack the Jets lineup as early as this Fall. If he does, he'll spend time switching from the wing to center, trying to acclimate and find out which role he's best suited for now, probably seeing some more time down in the farm. Question, given that the 20/21 hockey season was an outlier, per CHL rules, does he have to go back to the CHL, or because he's played a year as a professional, can he go back and does that not write a year off his ELC? Probably speaking rhetorically here as it should be self explanatory, but this was an odd year like no other. More-so, does he even go back to the CHL given what he's shown. It makes no sense as he had a 1.82 point-per-game clip over 61 games in his Draft year and had seemed to break out as a professional player before the AHL season came to an end. I am thinking he spends next year between the AHL and NHL, then in 2022/23, he is an NHL regular. I can see the sky being the limit for the kid. I see him being a safe bet to follow along the lines of a Johnny Gaudreau in terms of production, as long as he has quality linemates, and with Winnipeg depending where he falls into the top-six, and given that he sees time on the top power play unit, that's very possible.

[Axeman33]

Perfetti has loads of skill but as I mentioned earlier, the holdback will be opportunity. Scheifele is still young and is their 1C for years to come. Unless Perfetti moves to the wing, I am not sure he every reaches his full potential. Im pretty confident they drafted him to be a center so we'll see. They need depth down the middle more than more wingers.

[Pengwin7]

I don't think anybody has seen enough of Perfetti to peg him at an NHL level.

He had great OHL stats.
He had an exceptional AHL *rookie year.

If Winnipeg plays him at C, where they should - as they want him as a future C given their young wingers (Ehlers, Connor), then his progression will be slower.
Guys like Nathan MacKinnon and Tyler Seguin ended up being dynamic, but their first few seasons as a two-way center really stifled their production.

Realistically - Perfetti is current roadblocked by:
C1: Scheifele, who will be UFA in summer 2024, age 31 then
C2: PL Dubois, who will be RFA-arb in summer 2022, age 23 then
Perfect place for Perfetti for next two years is flexing in at C3/C4 or spending spot time on top two line wing.
It'll be great development for him... but yes, I expect a 35/50/60 progression in his first 3 years, if he plays next year with the Jets.

After that, we'll see.
He may leapfrog PL Dubois to the C1 spot.
If he is dynamic, Jets may let Scheifele walk in 2024 and use that money for a high-end D.

I think the 2020 draft is shaping up to be a pretty strong draft, from Lafreniere(1) all the way to Holloway/Amirov (14/15) is looking really strong right now.
So Perfetti does have the upside to score like another guy drafted #10... Mikko Rantanen in 2015.
[Based on his OHL/AHL numbers... I'd say Perfetti *could* be deemed to Rantanen-level upside... which is high 90s points!]
Rantanen did 60pts in 52gp in his AHL rookie season. Over 1.0ppg.


As for Meier - he's solid... but I don't see high-end upside.
I doubt he'll ever score 80pts in a season... maybe we see 70+ once or twice.

IMO - great trade, upside with Perfetti > upside with Meier.

[Bubba55]

Excellent discussion here!! We will see what happens but I also agree that Perfetti's progression will be steady but expecting big numbers out of the gate is not likely to happen. I also agree that Perfetti's upside is superior to Meier's, but be prepared to wait for that to happen. IMO, Meier will put up the better numbers next year and very likely the year after that. This is a good deal if you are prepared to wait, but if you are in win now mode having the proven vet over the rookie is much preferred in most cases.

[Feenom]

The Jets are going to be a very good team for many years to come. Perfetti will be a big part of future success. In 3-5 yrs he should be slotted in as the 2C assuming PLD isn’t in the way. If he explodes on the scene, ice time sky rockets and offensive numbers rise. Like it has been said, it all depends on opportunities and some luck. But at his peak I believe 80 points is reachable but the 60-70 point range is more likely. If opportunities rise, that number correlates accordingly.

[Eli26]

Excellent discussion here!! We will see what happens but I also agree that Perfetti's progression will be steady but expecting big numbers out of the gate is not likely to happen. I also agree that Perfetti's upside is superior to Meier's, but be prepared to wait for that to happen. IMO, Meier will put up the better numbers next year and very likely the year after that. This is a good deal if you are prepared to wait, but if you are in win now mode having the proven vet over the rookie is much preferred in most cases.

Oh I agree, it will take at least 2 years, even into Cole Perfetti's third season for him to out score Timo Meier. It can also happen as soon as next year. All depends on how much those AHL games impacted him, what his confidence is like, and whether or not there is an opening this Fall in the Jets top-six. Timo's shooting percentage fell this year to 7 percent, which is 4.5 percent lower from his previous seasons which saw him score at nearly a 30 goal clip over 82 games over the past two seasons. If his shooting percentage returns to his career normal, and he can maintain more consistency to his game, whether what team he's on, as rumours have been circling around he'll be dealt, then he's a great own. Long story short, I did the deal now knowing Timo is the better player today and maybe even the next few years, with the outlook and promise of landing a young NHL superstar. Sometimes you have to take the hit today to get the better talent tomorrow.

I believe once Perfetti hits his stride in the NHL and dots all the i's and crosses all the t's, Meier won't be enough of a return. I had a chance to get Nathan Mackinnon and Claude Giroux for Patrick Kane and Evander Kane when MacKinnon had 38 points. I turned down the deal at the time, thinking the Kanes had more value, because at the time they did. Had I done the deal, I would have lost it, but today, there's no way that deal happens. So I am all about the risk and reward and waiting. Pay up now, so you can reap the rewards later. The other GM understood this and got a good well-rounded player that doesn't just get points in the goal and points department but someone who also can rack up 150 hits. They are into win now, and realize Meier is the guy today. Perfetti is the guy for tomorrow.

[Eli26]

I don't think anybody has seen enough of Perfetti to peg him at an NHL level.

He had great OHL stats.
He had an exceptional AHL *rookie year.

If Winnipeg plays him at C, where they should - as they want him as a future C given their young wingers (Ehlers, Connor), then his progression will be slower.
Guys like Nathan MacKinnon and Tyler Seguin ended up being dynamic, but their first few seasons as a two-way center really stifled their production.

Realistically - Perfetti is current roadblocked by:
C1: Scheifele, who will be UFA in summer 2024, age 31 then
C2: PL Dubois, who will be RFA-arb in summer 2022, age 23 then
Perfect place for Perfetti for next two years is flexing in at C3/C4 or spending spot time on top two line wing.
It'll be great development for him... but yes, I expect a 35/50/60 progression in his first 3 years, if he plays next year with the Jets.

After that, we'll see.
He may leapfrog PL Dubois to the C1 spot.
If he is dynamic, Jets may let Scheifele walk in 2024 and use that money for a high-end D.

I think the 2020 draft is shaping up to be a pretty strong draft, from Lafreniere(1) all the way to Holloway/Amirov (14/15) is looking really strong right now.
So Perfetti does have the upside to score like another guy drafted #10... Mikko Rantanen in 2015.
[Based on his OHL/AHL numbers... I'd say Perfetti *could* be deemed to Rantanen-level upside... which is high 90s points!]
Rantanen did 60pts in 52gp in his AHL rookie season. Over 1.0ppg.


As for Meier - he's solid... but I don't see high-end upside.
I doubt he'll ever score 80pts in a season... maybe we see 70+ once or twice.

IMO - great trade, upside with Perfetti > upside with Meier.

Funny you brought up Rantanen because I was thinking about that and his AHL production. Keep in mind Perfetti is a slow starter. He had a very slow start to his OHL Draft year, where he had 1 goal and 11 points in 10 games. He then finished the year with 37 goals and 111 points in 61 games, good for 1.82 PPG, tying fellow 2020 draftie Quinton Byfield. Only player who had a better draft year in the O, was Marco Rossi, who's nearly a year older than Byfield and months older than Perfetti. Also, Saignaw wasn't the best team for talent outside of Cole.

Then you look at where he started in the A and how he finished. He had 13 points in 9 April games. Had he played as much games as Rantanen, they way he was trending and settling in, he could have had a similar season.

Again, I am not convinced he'll start as a centerman in his NHL career. In fact he spent much of his draft year on the wing. If they resign PLD, which given his cost, despite the production, it makes more sense to try the kid there.. but it also makes sense to see how he does at center. I think if Cole somehow plays his way onto the Jets roster this Fall, it will be similar situation to Dylan Cozens, how he was tried as at center and on wing, saw bouts of time on the top line (due to injuries), the second line, even in the bottom six to seeing time in the top-six on wing. Paul Maurice might juggle him around to best see where he fits.

[Eli26]

The Jets are going to be a very good team for many years to come. Perfetti will be a big part of future success. In 3-5 yrs he should be slotted in as the 2C assuming PLD isn’t in the way. If he explodes on the scene, ice time sky rockets and offensive numbers rise. Like it has been said, it all depends on opportunities and some luck. But at his peak I believe 80 points is reachable but the 60-70 point range is more likely. If opportunities rise, that number correlates accordingly.

See, I believe Perfetti's peak is 90... kid is probably the smartest player the Jets have. He's a special player. He holds the Hlinka-Gretzky record for goals (8) and points (12)... he's had one of the best OHL seasons in the past decade, and if the AHL season ran longer, he would have overtaken as the Moose's top scorer in his Draft +1 year as a rookie. Only thing holding back is skating and that can be worked on. He's also 19, we have no idea in 5+ years where Scheifele is, if he's a Jet, and if he's at a point where he can be looked at, whether he's still good for the 1LC role. Keep in mind, he'll be 33 five years from now. Cole could surpass him by then on the depth chart. Again, even if Scheifs can keep it going into his mid 30's, that still puts Perfetti at a good age. That's of course, if we're stuck on the idea he has to be strictly used as a center.

[lucafen4]

You probably should have gotten more fro Meier considering the wait on prospects in Wpg. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Perfetti is another year - at least from stepping into the Wpg line-up full time and grabbing a prominent role.

Also won't be shocked to see him move to wing if he is ready to get him into the line up - it happens often - See Nylander.
It's a pretty set top 9 in Wpg already.