Buy Low - Sell High Candidates

[JSquared]

this is a general comment but is mostly directed at Carter Hart.

Outside of Vasilevskiy, I dont think any goalie is worth reaching for with the way goalies are deployed these days and how many good ones there are in the league already. I banked hard on Lehner/Fleury/Grubauer in all my leagues this season to great success but it worked because I picked them at good values in the draft. As such, any goalies at drafts next season will need to come at the right price for it to be a worthwhile risk and alot of it is outside of their control. I believe a large part of Philly's struggles was the sudden retirement of Matt Niskanen and they did not replace him. He's on the ice 1/3rd of the game so that impact is significant. It is much easier in my opinion picking teams with a solid dcorps and decent forwards so you know at least their ratios should be ok with the upside of emergence from their depth lines so goalies like varlamov and talbot were good values at the draft table last season.

Those were some solid options for G deployment. Well played. All three were available in our league as well, and those GMs did well.

Are there any goalies you'd be looking at for next year to do similar to what Lehner/MAF/Grub did for you this past year?

[JSquared]

other than those discussed above, some other mentions:

buy low prospects before their value rises to the top early next year:

Caufield
Stutzle
Rossi
Zegras
Lafreniere
Kakko
Dobson
Drysdale
Romanov

bit more NHL established prospects:

Norris
Batherson
Comtois
Steel
Ty smith
Zacha

I'm really curious how drafts will go this year for leagues that don't have farm teams but have deep rosters. Considering there was little junior hockey played in North America, I'm thinking prospects on this list (and including but not limited to Byfield, Kaliyev, Sharangovich, Brannstrom, Timmins, Bouchard, Byram, etc.) could go higher than they normally would in our league.

[Belexus75]

other than those discussed above, some other mentions:

buy low prospects before their value rises to the top early next year:

Caufield
Stutzle
Rossi
Zegras
Lafreniere
Kakko
Dobson
Drysdale
Romanov

bit more NHL established prospects:

Norris
Batherson
Comtois
Steel
Ty smith
Zacha

In the first column only Rossi , Kakko and Romanov maybe buy low, you will be paying quite a premium for other guys...some of them i would argue you can by for less later once they hit their walls in the full rookie or second season.

[lucafen4]

Sell High

Cam Talbot - Kahkonen will eat into playing time
Mike Smith - he'll be 40 - get what you can
Pavelski - as others mentioned - hard to fathom he repeats

Buy low -
Eichel - his neck injury should be scaring owners for next year. No telling if he'll be ready to start the season
Hall - two sub-par seasons in a row. Re-signing in Boston will boost his value - I'd jump in if you can before he re-signs.
Dahlin - people forget he's still so damn young
Korpisalo & Merzlikins - with a new coach I expect a bounceback for the whole team... which means:
Werenski - I predict 50+ over a full season next yera
Bjorkstrand - takes another step
Seth Jones - joins Werenski in the 50+pt club next year
Bemstrom - takes a big step forward
Rakell - the whole Ducks team is closing in on a step forward.
Patrick, Nolan... who? - Exactly!
Hischier - injuries, not meeting the hype. it's the window where owners get impatient.

Caufield is not a buy low. he set Mtl's fan base on fire at the end of season 2 GWG in a handful of games? Some folks need to re-read the definition of buy low.
Zegras - not a buy low, nothing he did hurt his stock.

E. Karlsson - buy low. No one says anything positive about him. He was .5 pt/gm last 25 games or so. Not exceptional.
I suspect he'll start slow next year. Health is the key with EK. I suspect by Xmas if he can avoid any large injury we'll see him start to re-emerge as a 50+pt Dman.
You won't get him cheaper than now. he's only 30, turning 31.
He was as elite as we've seen on D in 20 years.
If you look at the severity of his injuries going back to the severed achillies
you don't simply return to the line up and return to full speed.
Every time he seemed to turn the corner he suffered another major injury.
Christmas 2021 will provide EK with 18mths without major injury or setback.
I do not think EK is done.

[kovalchuk17]

Those were some solid options for G deployment. Well played. All three were available in our league as well, and those GMs did well.

Are there any goalies you'd be looking at for next year to do similar to what Lehner/MAF/Grub did for you this past year?

Thank you. Too early to call, there isnt just the draft/free agency to deal with but expansion as well. There will be teams that will likely lose a good defenseman and may or may not have internal replacements. I would wait till August/September to really start projecting goalies. Even then, itll depend where the goalies are ranked on the draft list. If i recall correctly, Francouz was ranked higher than Grubauer in Yahoo.

[snowball]

Sell High



Caufield is not a buy low. he set Mtl's fan base on fire at the end of season 2 GWG in a handful of games? Some folks need to re-read the definition of buy low.
Zegras - not a buy low, nothing he did hurt his stock.

.

depends on your league settings and depth. Caufield and Zegras are buy low because they haven't technically produced at NHL level yet and are not studs with PP1 time and all. I consider them buy low because it would probably be the best way to acquire them at a low cost this off-season and beginning of next season. Once they heat up and produce you won't be able to buy them cheap anymore (cheaper than they are today).

Agreed that if you are in a dynasty they are not buy lows. In any other partial keeper or so, yes.

[Axeman33]

depends on your league settings and depth. Caufield and Zegras are buy low because they haven't technically produced at NHL level yet and are not studs with PP1 time and all. I consider them buy low because it would probably be the best way to acquire them at a low cost this off-season and beginning of next season. Once they heat up and produce you won't be able to buy them cheap anymore (cheaper than they are today).

Agreed that if you are in a dynasty they are not buy lows. In any other partial keeper or so, yes.

The hype around both kids is what makes them NOT fall into the buy-low category.

[Belexus75]

depends on your league settings and depth. Caufield and Zegras are buy low because they haven't technically produced at NHL level yet and are not studs with PP1 time and all. I consider them buy low because it would probably be the best way to acquire them at a low cost this off-season and beginning of next season. Once they heat up and produce you won't be able to buy them cheap anymore (cheaper than they are today).

Agreed that if you are in a dynasty they are not buy lows. In any other partial keeper or so, yes.

well nobody would buy them in partial keepers....unless its very deep partial keeper and if its once again, not buy low....

you not keeping either guy in keep 5-6 either this year or next year so nobody will buy...any league where you can afford to wait a year or 2 or 3...you pay premium to acquire them

if you want to trade for them in deep keeper/dynasty formats u missed a boat for buy low but there maybe another window if either guy struggles to start next year. dont buy now.

[silkysmooth]

The hype around both kids is what makes them NOT fall into the buy-low category.

Exactly, there is basically never a "buy low" period for a top prospect unless they slump for an extended period and perform far below expectations.
All of these guys--Zegras, Caufield, etc--are already valued as if they are point-per-game players, which makes them a sell high if anything since they are being assessed based on an arbitrary future value that they don't have today and may never reach.

[Axeman33]

Exactly, there is basically never a "buy low" period for a top prospect unless they slump for an extended period and perform far below expectations.
All of these guys--Zegras, Caufield, etc--are already valued as if they are point-per-game players, which makes them a sell high if anything since they are being assessed based on an arbitrary future value that they don't have today and may never reach.

If anything, these types of players are usually over-valued before they have really proven anything.

[kovalchuk17]

i agree, players like Zegras and Caulfield cannot be considered buy-lows at this point as i would question the league's overall skill level if they were handed over pretty cheap

it would be more accurate to say this may be the last chance to acquire them at a reasonable price if their manager is skeptical before they become unobtainable. personally i wouldnt overpay for either because it's unclear who Zegras will be playing with to get to point-per-game and theres a glut of RW in montreal that caulfield wont be deployed properly

[lucafen4]

depends on your league settings and depth. Caufield and Zegras are buy low because they haven't technically produced at NHL level yet and are not studs with PP1 time and all. I consider them buy low because it would probably be the best way to acquire them at a low cost this off-season and beginning of next season. Once they heat up and produce you won't be able to buy them cheap anymore (cheaper than they are today).

Agreed that if you are in a dynasty they are not buy lows. In any other partial keeper or so, yes.

Have to disagree. Esp. on Caufield. In a 1 year league - he's going to be drafted mid-rounds based on expectations & hype. Zegras will be a late round flyer. In limited keepers (8, 10) a 'rebuilding' team might even choose to keep them over proven talent based on that hype.

Folks don't keep buy-low candidates
Case in point - I'm in a 16tm dynasty - I picked Joe Pavelski up off the wire last summer.

You'll see on these boards in the coming months OP's asking who do I keep in limited keepers & asking if they should keep Caufield over players like Palmieri, Mantha, Vrana possibly even Laine... wait for it...
hype voids buy-lows.