Buy Low - Sell High Candidates

[JSquared]

Sell high:
Pavelski (don't think you'd get value for him, but can try!)
Weegar (tentative sell -- could be better than expected)
JVR (see Pavelski)
Palat (Kuch back and primo minutes go away)
Hintz (between the injuries and the surprise breakout, I'm skeptical)
Barrie (unless he re-ups with Oilers)
Verhaeghe (not sure this dream season is repeatable)
Yandle (might be too late, but...)
Toffoli (nearly a career high in 56 game season... don't see a repeat)
Copp (not seeing a repeat of this year)

Buy low:
Dahlin (last 10-12 games are more an indication)
Laine and Werenski (Torts gone and boom!)
Vrana (finally some PP time?)
Larkin (pieces will start to fill in around him)
DeAngelo (he's gonna sign somewhere and if he can keep mouth shut...)
Brannstrom (last chance to get him methinks)
Bouchard (especially if Barrie walks)
Meier (see today's ramblings)
Sam Bennett (might be too late, but looks like new player in Florida)
anyone injured (Seguin, Pettersson, Eichel, Hischier, Teravainen, Malkin)

Terrific! I can certainly be on board with your thoughts and rationale. Timing for young D like Brannstrom and Bouchard is challenging. They'll be be available in the draft for my league, and individuals I'll be keen to pick up.

Laine, Vrana and Larkin are appealing for the reasons you shared. I've thought the same and have tossed out some options for those GMs. Meier and Hertl (though not listed) are interesting SJS options too. I read the Ramblings and it definitely got me thinking. Fingers crossed he is dropped as I don't think I'd take Meier as a keeper over anyone I have presently. Compelling in the re-draft though.

[JSquared]

Some good info. I'd add Jack Hughes and Cole Caufield to the buy low list. I'm only buying VERY low on Flames and CBJ players because those teams are both shit shows and I want to be very guarded about acquiring any of those players.

I'm wondering about the patience of the GM that owns Jack. I know he is tired of waiting and dislikes the fact that he is still in the bottom third of our league. Caufield was recently added and suspect the GM is not too keen to give him up at this point. He's a savvy GM.

Would selling high on Jason Robertson for Jack Hughes be a win within 3 years? In your opinion

[tweetdrivr]

I'm wondering about the patience of the GM that owns Jack. I know he is tired of waiting and dislikes the fact that he is still in the bottom third of our league. Caufield was recently added and suspect the GM is not too keen to give him up at this point. He's a savvy GM.

Would selling high on Jason Robertson for Jack Hughes be a win within 3 years? In your opinion

I don't think of Robertson as a sell high necessarily. I think his production is sustainable. I would rather have Hughes though if i had to choose. But it'd be nice to have both.

[Stencil]

With the regular season coming to and end and playoffs upon us, I'm trying to think about who some of my sell high candidates might be, and who are some buy low candidates I might want to target.

As per the signature, a 9 team - 17 keeper dynasty league - points only.

I see Huberdeau, Scheifele, Krejci, J Robertson, Theodore, and Rielly as sell high options. Agree or disagree?

With these prospective sell highs, who are some of the buy-lows that you'd target?

I disagree wit probably 100% of your sell high.

Huberdeau is at his peak, he's not a sell high, it's time to keep him
Scheifele is at his peak, he's not a sell high, it's time to keep him
Krejci has no value in any of my league because of his age. I have him and I know nobody else wants him
Theodore is at his peak, he's not a sell high, it's time to keep him
Rielly just had a bad points pruduction for his standard, so he's not a sell high
Robertson is a rookie so he's just gonna get better, he's not a sell high

Taylor Hall might be a buy-low, Jack Eichel, Jonathan Drouin, Heiskanen, Binnington

[JSquared]

I disagree wit probably 100% of your sell high.

Huberdeau is at his peak, he's not a sell high, it's time to keep him
Scheifele is at his peak, he's not a sell high, it's time to keep him
Krejci has no value in any of my league because of his age. I have him and I know nobody else wants him
Theodore is at his peak, he's not a sell high, it's time to keep him
Rielly just had a bad points pruduction for his standard, so he's not a sell high
Robertson is a rookie so he's just gonna get better, he's not a sell high

Taylor Hall might be a buy-low, Jack Eichel, Jonathan Drouin, Heiskanen, Binnington

Glad that you disagreed! Gives me more to think about. I do want to make sure I sell at the right time.
What are some of your triggers for knowing when to sell?

[MCARTER82]

Carter Hart, buy low?

[finnys_fanatsy]

Taylor Hall might be a buy-low, Jack Eichel, Jonathan Drouin, Heiskanen, Binnington

This Drouin drop intrigues me. I thought the same but I couldn’t justify it to myself. What would make JD a buy low? I am thinking do we see a resurgence next year???

[JSquared]

Carter Hart, buy low?

Being a Hart owner, I suspect someone will come sniffing on a buy low option. Same with Samsonov considering his COVID protocol issues and internal team discipline. Vanecek is proving to push Samsonov for G1. We'll see.

[Stencil]

Glad that you disagreed! Gives me more to think about. I do want to make sure I sell at the right time.
What are some of your triggers for knowing when to sell?

The trigger is when you think the guy will not repeat. We're all wrong at times and right at times but that's the trigger. After that it's all about what you are getting for the player. Sell high means that you get a return equivalent of the value of the player or a package that will provide that later. If you think Huberdeau is not a 90 pts player, then you trade him for a 90 pts player. Then you'll have a 90 pts player for a guy that will not do it anymore. That is a sell high.

Now I think Huberdeau is a 90 pts player so he's not a sell high. His current production is, to my opinion, he's right value.

Palat was a pt per game player ealier in the year. If I had him and could trade him for a 70-80 players, I would have done it in a heartbeat because he never had that kind of production in his career and he's been in the league for awhile, and already in a situation with top players.

[Stencil]

This Drouin drop intrigues me. I thought the same but I couldn’t justify it to myself. What would make JD a buy low? I am thinking do we see a resurgence next year???

He's definitely not a go to guy and a player I'm desperate to get. I don't believe anymore that he can be a 70-80 pts player. But he's a buy low in the sense that he's still young and can be a 50-65 pts players that you get for a late draft pick or an older 50 pts player. He doesn't have much value right now and can be a depth piece to help your team. Of course if you pay more to get him, that's not worth it. if a 50-60 pts player doesn't have value in your league format (limited keeper), that's not worth it either.

[JSquared]

The trigger is when you think the guy will not repeat. We're all wrong at time and right at times but that's the trigger. After that it's all about what you are getting for the player. Sell high means that you get a return equivalent of the value of the player or a package that will provide that later. If you think Huberdeau is not a 90 pts player, then you trade him for a 90 pts player. Then you'll have a 90 pts player for a guy that will not do it anymore. That is a sell high.

Now I think Huberdeau is a 90 pts player so he's not a sell high. His current production is, to my opinion, he's right value.

Palat was a pt per game player ealier in the year. If I had him and could trade him for a 70-80 players, I would have done it in a heartbeat because he never had that kind of production in his career and he's been in the league for awhile, and already in a situation with to players.

That's a well articulated breakdown. I have felt similarly but haven't been able to put it into words in the same way.

I had Palat earlier this year, along with Hayes (when he was out performing his past), and were able to trade them plus Batherson for Pettersson. Couldn't believe the other GM accepted but felt I was able to maximize. Funny enough he podiumed, and I finished behind him in 4th by only 20 pts.

[tweetdrivr]

You traded Palat, Hayes, and Batherson for Pettersson?

[snowball]

other than those discussed above, some other mentions:

buy low prospects before their value rises to the top early next year:

Caufield
Stutzle
Rossi
Zegras
Lafreniere
Kakko
Dobson
Drysdale
Romanov

bit more NHL established prospects:

Norris
Batherson
Comtois
Steel
Ty smith
Zacha

[kovalchuk17]

this is a general comment but is mostly directed at Carter Hart.

Outside of Vasilevskiy, I dont think any goalie is worth reaching for with the way goalies are deployed these days and how many good ones there are in the league already. I banked hard on Lehner/Fleury/Grubauer in all my leagues this season to great success but it worked because I picked them at good values in the draft. As such, any goalies at drafts next season will need to come at the right price for it to be a worthwhile risk and alot of it is outside of their control. I believe a large part of Philly's struggles was the sudden retirement of Matt Niskanen and they did not replace him. He's on the ice 1/3rd of the game so that impact is significant. It is much easier in my opinion picking teams with a solid dcorps and decent forwards so you know at least their ratios should be ok with the upside of emergence from their depth lines so goalies like varlamov and talbot were good values at the draft table last season.

[JSquared]

You traded Palat, Hayes, and Batherson for Pettersson?

Yes, amongst other multi-player deals this year. I'm trying to snip a clip and post here, and trying to save as a jpg/png, but not having any luck to show you.