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Thread: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

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    Default In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    Dustin Wolf as he leads a re-tooled Flames team to the playoffs!!

    Lucas Dostal as hes been traded/poached to a new team where hes playing as a better than league average starter!!

    Ilya Konalonov as hes the backbone of the Oiers new dynasty!!!

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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    In three years, I'd say Askarov is the right answer but if you're asking about the three in your OP, I'd be hopeful on Konalonov. Edmonton is the only team with questions about their goalies in 2-3 years today.
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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    I'll be happy to just be alive in 2-3 years and still playing fantasy sports as a hobby

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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    Quote Originally Posted by butch View Post
    I'll be happy to just be alive in 2-3 years and still playing fantasy sports as a hobby
    Amen
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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    I agree with Axe here, Askarov needs to be included here but that's going to be a long wait too I would imagine. Wolf is stuck behind Markstrom for years and ya, Dostal needs to be traded to stand a chance, Gibson is 27 years old and signed long term, he's not going anywhere. Also agree with Axe, that if any one of these guys makes it in 2 - 3 years Ilya Konalonov is in the best position opportunity wise to do so. Whether that happens or not, who knows (:
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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    If this is a thread on how to approach goaltending prospects, here's my philosophy:

    1. Don't spend high picks on 18-year-olds. The wait time and bust rate are such that you'll lose value relative to skaters, especially when you consider the shine wears off all prospects by the time the next entry draft rolls around, but especially so for goalies since they are probably going back to their home club and may not even put up eye popping numbers the way a forward might. Odds are you are either selling off that goalie before he ripens or you are holding on too long to a guy who won't play.

    2. Do spend higher picks (but not top-5 picks) on goalies much further along with a strong track record in pro leagues. If you've got a league where you re-draft a certain proportion of prospects, or players who went undrafted previously enter your prospect pool, getting in on goalies further along the developmental chain will reduce your bust rate and wait time where you may actually see that player matriculate to your pro roster.

    3. Do spend many lower picks on goaltenders of all shapes, sizes and backgrounds. As soon as you are outside the top 20 or so in any draft class your hit rate is dropping to 50% or less regardless of position, but you're unlikely to find a star skater. If you've got a deep farm system where you can stash a bunch of long shot prospects the upside on a goaltender is WAY higher than any other position.

    Just look at the top prospects list for goaltenders: https://dobberhockey.com/2020/11/21/...ers-fall-2020/

    Yes there are a handful of 1st rounders in there, but the bulk is late round goalies from across the globe, and most are well into their 20's now.

    4. Do not sweat the depth chart of the team the player is drafted to. Sure, it's nice to have the red carpet rolled out for a top prospect where they can seize the opportunity right away, but how often does that same red carpet lead to the fantasy owner having to experience the ups and downs of the young goaltender still developing their craft at the NHL level? Think young MA Fleury or Hellebuyck or Price or most recently Carter Hart. Yes, it can be frustrating to have a legitimate prospect over-bake in the minors, but there aren't too many recent examples of that. It's more likely they get stuck in a tandem behind a bonafide #1 (Schneider in VAN, Saros in NSH, etc.) but even then, at least they are contributing and their time always comes eventually.

    5. Do not sweat the current state of a team. It's rare for a team to go through an extended run of truly abysmal play like the post-Pronger Oilers or the current Sabres run. By the time an 18-year-old goalie prospect is ready, the team's situation could be completely flipped. It's also rare that a great goalie can't at least drive a team to competence. It was only a couple years ago that it seemed John Gibson was a top-2/3 choice for keeper leaguers to invest in, but Anaheim so eroded the talent on the roster that even he could not overcome the situation. I wonder if we aren't heading somewhere similar with Ilya Samsonov in Washington as that team ages. On the flip side, think about how Winnipeg could never get it together until Hellebuyck emerged. And sometimes a goalie has to end up somewhere else before they truly emerge like Jacob Markstrom.

    *

    I'm definitely interested in some of the names mentioned in this thread.

    Askarov, Dostal, Wolf and Konovalov are all intriguing.

    I like Justus Annunen in Colorado, Ukko-Pekka Luukonen in Buffalo, Daniil Tarasov in Columbus, Cayden Primeau in Montreal, Spencer Knight in Florida, Hugo Alnefelt in Tampa Bay, and probably some others. I bet they don't all hit. But cast a wide enough net and you'll do alright.
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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    If we are talking prospects:

    Kaliyev - traded up to get him at 18 OA in our prospect draft his draft year. He is either going to be boom or bust, but if he booms look out, the kid has 50 goal potential.
    Swayman - I reluctantly drafted him 34 OA in our prospect draft last year after a bunch of guys I wanted went earlier than I expected (Annunen, Dostal) and I really needed some goalie options. This may be a happy accident.

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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    Quote Originally Posted by butch View Post
    I'll be happy to just be alive in 2-3 years and still playing fantasy sports as a hobby
    many times this. i had more free this time this year to analyze for all my fantasy sports teams (football/hockey/basketball) so ive definitely seen it in the results including wins in all my hockey leagues this season. once beer league hockey, soccer and all my other social commitments are back i doubt ill be able to focus as much on fantasy sports but it will always be there as an escape.
    One day I will quit fantasy hockey, today is not that day.

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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    Quote Originally Posted by FinnishFlash View Post
    If we are talking prospects:

    Kaliyev - traded up to get him at 18 OA in our prospect draft his draft year. He is either going to be boom or bust, but if he booms look out, the kid has 50 goal potential.
    Swayman - I reluctantly drafted him 34 OA in our prospect draft last year after a bunch of guys I wanted went earlier than I expected (Annunen, Dostal) and I really needed some goalie options. This may be a happy accident.
    wtf r u talking about?

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    Default Re: In 2-3 years Ill be glad I drafted...

    Quote Originally Posted by Fighting_Emu View Post
    wtf r u talking about?
    Easy trigger. He’s talking about prospects...including non-goalie options. Your thread title does not specify. Yes we are in the goalie forum but he’s just answering the question. Given the content of some of your posts, this one hardly seems to deserve the bucolic response.
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