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Thread: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

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    Default Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    It's a pipe dream but I want to make an offer to the McDavid owner in my league this offseason.

    Wondering if this is ill-advised or not nearly enough. I have a really deep team this year and we are expanding our keepers so thought if there is ever a time to try might as well be now.

    Would a package built around Pastrnak + Guentzel + Fox be enough to get McDavid owners here to at least engage in discussions? I don't want to go WAY over on the initial offer but also don't want to poison the water.

    Alternatively the Matthews owner in my league is an unabashed Bruins fan so could go that route I suppose.
    8tm Keep 7FWD,4D,1G
    3
    C,3LW,3RW,5D,2G (positional game played cap)
    G(3),A(2),+/-(1),PM(0.5),PPP(1),GW(1),S(0.4),W(4),SV(0.2),GA(-1),SO(2)
    C:Aho, Barkov, Pavelski(RW), Nugent-Hop(LW)
    R:Rantanen, Pasta, Konecny
    L:Guentzel, Gaudreau, Keller(RW), Benn
    D:Makar, Karlsson, Sergachev, Dobson, Hronek, Sanderson
    G:Vasilevskiy, Hart, Kuemper, Kotchetkov, Husso





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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    Yes. I think that package at least gets the McDavid GMs attention. What happens from there depends entirely on circumstance.
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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    If it is an 8-team, keep 4F league... there's NO chance that team McDavid will take that offer.

    There's only 32F keepers.
    In a typical year, the #32 scoring forward is probably around 75pts (see 2018-19, last FULL season), going forward
    So... value of players is all about what a guy does above that benchmark.

    McDavid has established himself as almost 2points-per-game.
    That's a 150pt regular season.
    That's +75 points above 75pt forward benchmark.

    EVEN... EVEN (!!!) if you offer the guy TWO 100pt scorers... that +25 and +25... only +50.
    It's still FAR, FAR off McDavid's value.

    Pastrnak is a 90pt guy.
    Guentzel is maybe a 75pt guy.
    So that's like +15pt value... not close to McDavid's +75 value.

    You could factor in what Fox does above the #16D (8Dx2).
    But that's not gonna make up the difference.

    But in a shallow/partial keeper... there should be NO chance the McDavid owner considers your offer.
    Not after this year.
    The "buy reasonably" or even the "buy slightly high" on McDavid window... is CLOSED.


    "Overpaying" for McDavid is league-specific.
    In a 24-team, 12F/6D dynasty, if somebody pays Matthews/Aho/Fox for McDavid... yeah that's an overpay.
    In a 8-team, keep 4F/2D league, I'm not sure even Matthews/Aho/Fox = McDavid.

    So... league-dependent based on the benchmark of the last keeper's scoring value at each position.

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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    If it is an 8-team, keep 4F league... there's NO chance that team McDavid will take that offer.

    There's only 32F keepers.
    In a typical year, the #32 scoring forward is probably around 75pts (see 2018-19, last FULL season).
    So... value of players is all about what a guy does above that benchmark.

    McDavid has established himself as almost 2points-per-game.
    That's a 150pt regular season.
    That's +75 points above 65pt guys.

    EVEN... EVEN (!!!) if you offer the guy TWO 100pt scorers... that +25 and +25... only +50.
    It's still FAR, FAR off McDavid's value.

    Pastrnak is a 90pt guy.
    Guentzel is maybe a 75pt guy.
    So that's like +15pt value... not close to McDavid's +75 value.

    You could factor in what Fox does above the #16D (8Dx2).
    But that's not gonna make up the difference.

    But in a shallow/partial keeper... there should be NO chance the McDavid owner considers your offer.
    Not after this year.
    The "buy reasonably" or even the "buy slightly high" on McDavid window... is CLOSED.
    Really appreciate this super thorough insight (rep given to both posts so far). Definitely realize that the "buy low" window as far as that ever existed on McDavid is closed for sure.

    In our scoring system (sig below) the last three seasons the comparisons in Fantasy Points Per game between Pasta and McDavid have gone like this:

    this season first
    Pasta: 4.7, 6.27, 5.35
    McDavid: 7.28, 5.77, 5.48
    and
    Guentzel: 4.31, 4.83, 3.97
    The 32nd ranked skater this year for us is Scheifele who this season is 3.90 FPPG.

    Fox is 3.49 Fppg this year
    16th ranked D is Josi at 3.09

    Based on this year:
    McDavid offered +3.38 value per game (which is insane!)
    Pasta+Guentzel+Fox offer a cumulative +1.61

    Sooooo you are right! Haha would likely have to swap Guentzel and Rantanen to make up that difference but I don't know that it's worth gutting my team. Really appreciate the insight though!
    The time would have been to buy after last year when Pasta actually outproduced McDavid in our scoring system.
    8tm Keep 7FWD,4D,1G
    3
    C,3LW,3RW,5D,2G (positional game played cap)
    G(3),A(2),+/-(1),PM(0.5),PPP(1),GW(1),S(0.4),W(4),SV(0.2),GA(-1),SO(2)
    C:Aho, Barkov, Pavelski(RW), Nugent-Hop(LW)
    R:Rantanen, Pasta, Konecny
    L:Guentzel, Gaudreau, Keller(RW), Benn
    D:Makar, Karlsson, Sergachev, Dobson, Hronek, Sanderson
    G:Vasilevskiy, Hart, Kuemper, Kotchetkov, Husso





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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    i dont think theres such thing as an overpay unless youre offering matthews + draisaitl + panarin or some combination there of


    in my roto keeper (keep 5) league that includes faceoff wins ive made an offer for mcdavid. keep in mind we can only keep players for 3 seasons so he'll have to move him in the next 1-2 years. the owner that has mcdavid also has hedman + point and finished last in all goaltending categories

    Kucherov + Stamkos + Grubauer.

    Stamkos is one of the best players in our league due to winger draws and his high goal totals and he hits enough to not be a liability. Keeping Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, Point and Grubauer would be pretty sweet for this guy.....i think haha
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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    I think offering up Vasilevsky, Aho and Pasternak is a better opening offer.
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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    Thanks again folks, rep given where I can. I have held onto vasilevskiy sooooo tightly but with shesterkin in the wings for me perhaps I could get away with that.

    McDavid, Rantanen, Guentzel, Svechnikov, Makar, Fox, Shesterkin

    Looks pretty good still compared to

    Pastrnak, Rantanen, Aho, Guentzel, Makar, Fox, Vasilevskiy.


    Some things to ponder for sure but might open with that.
    8tm Keep 7FWD,4D,1G
    3
    C,3LW,3RW,5D,2G (positional game played cap)
    G(3),A(2),+/-(1),PM(0.5),PPP(1),GW(1),S(0.4),W(4),SV(0.2),GA(-1),SO(2)
    C:Aho, Barkov, Pavelski(RW), Nugent-Hop(LW)
    R:Rantanen, Pasta, Konecny
    L:Guentzel, Gaudreau, Keller(RW), Benn
    D:Makar, Karlsson, Sergachev, Dobson, Hronek, Sanderson
    G:Vasilevskiy, Hart, Kuemper, Kotchetkov, Husso





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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    The only way you'll get the McDavid owner to even entertain trading him is to go in hot. Don't screw around with trying to go on low and hope the back and forth will see you getting a good deal.

    If you aren't willing to go above and beyond, I wouldn't even waste his time.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    The only way you'll get the McDavid owner to even entertain trading him is to go in hot. Don't screw around with trying to go on low and hope the back and forth will see you getting a good deal.

    If you aren't willing to go above and beyond, I wouldn't even waste his time.
    Point well taken
    8tm Keep 7FWD,4D,1G
    3
    C,3LW,3RW,5D,2G (positional game played cap)
    G(3),A(2),+/-(1),PM(0.5),PPP(1),GW(1),S(0.4),W(4),SV(0.2),GA(-1),SO(2)
    C:Aho, Barkov, Pavelski(RW), Nugent-Hop(LW)
    R:Rantanen, Pasta, Konecny
    L:Guentzel, Gaudreau, Keller(RW), Benn
    D:Makar, Karlsson, Sergachev, Dobson, Hronek, Sanderson
    G:Vasilevskiy, Hart, Kuemper, Kotchetkov, Husso





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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    I would probably go after AM instead and leverage Pasta to try and get it done close to 1-1 value. A year ago OGM probably does trade AM 1-1.
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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    I would probably go after AM instead and leverage Pasta to try and get it done close to 1-1 value. A year ago OGM probably does trade AM 1-1.
    I agree, but Matthews isn't McDavid. It's seems like a trade just to trade. I wouldn't overpay for Matthews unless it's a goal heavy league.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    The only way you'll get the McDavid owner to even entertain trading him is to go in hot. Don't screw around with trying to go on low and hope the back and forth will see you getting a good deal.

    If you aren't willing to go above and beyond, I wouldn't even waste his time.
    EXACTLY!! You don't get to negotiate. You have to blow him away and make him think. I would lead with Vasilevsky. He is the only player in the league who could be considered 'close to as valuable' as McDavid. If he is not a piece in the deal you don't have a chance.
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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    I agree, but Matthews isn't McDavid. It's seems like a trade just to trade. I wouldn't overpay for Matthews unless it's a goal heavy league.
    sig of OP shows 3pts for G 2pts for A.

    IMO Matthews > Pasta
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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    I’m a McDavid owner in a 12 team keep 6. Have considered trading McDavid this season and tested the waters.
    A number of 2 for 1 and 3 for 1 offers received. In receiving 2 or 3 players for McDavid means I have to drop 1 or 2 of my keepers. The incoming group needs to out produce McDavid and my dropped players combined. Not an easy thing to do when the likes of Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov, Pastrnak, Kane, Rantanen, Makar are all on different teams.
    I have received some offers that made me think, but not good enough to blow me away and pull the trigger.
    Just my 2 cents. Cheers.
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    Default Re: Is it Possible to overpay for McDavid

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    sig of OP shows 3pts for G 2pts for A.

    IMO Matthews > Pasta
    Fair enough but Pastrnak is no slouch in the goal scoring department himself. He WAS the top goal scorer in the NHL last year. Well, technically, he and Ovechkin tied but he was still the top scoring forward last year in goals. And unlike Matthews, he knows how to get assists.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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