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Thread: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

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    Default Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    As everyone that would frequent this Forum would know, Seguin returned yesterday and he looked pretty good considering the surgery/recovery he went through.

    Where would you rank him?

    The Good:
    He's only 29 and is returning to a team with more offensive talent than when he/Benn had to carry them a few years ago. Few players are point-per-game players when healthy and even fewer can average over 4.0 shots on goal per game and score as easily as Tyler can.

    The Bad:
    His last good season was 2 years ago (granted he's been hurt for the last 2). Other players with hip surgery players appear to be just fine but you never know.

    How much of a discount at the draft table will there be for Tyler? Top 30? Top 75? Maybe he should be kept in certain leagues?


    In my situation, I drafted him in the last round and he's one of many possible keepers in my (mainly) points league with sogs being the most important peripheral category. He was the #17 skater 2 years ago. If i can get decent draft picks for my other fringe keepers to replace the picks I used for rentals, might be worth the risk using a keeper slot on him in which 36 skaters are kept. Thoughts?
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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    I could see a 65-70 point pace next year, not clear how many games he will play. Once the surefire 65+ point skaters go I can see the diceroll being worth it.

    Only 36 skaters? I think he falls outside of that group (by a little or by a decent amount depending who you ask), but as you say it could be worth it if you can recoup some picks on fringe keepers.

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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    I'd say he's still in that top 30 range for me. He's near the bottom of that 30 but he's still there.
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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    Good (Upside): plays 70+ games and gets 65-70+ points. Easily doable as he will be the focal point of the Stars offense. PP1, SOG, PPP and FOW% should be solid stats.

    Bad (Downside): Minor injuries force him to play around 50-60 games but he still gets around 50pts

    Ugly: nagging injuries ruin his chances of playing even half a season

    But most likely and hopefully he hits the 70GP mark and all will be fine. I like the pick and good luck!

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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    I think his PPG days are behind him however, I still think he's a pretty safe bet for 30-30 in 70 ish games per year.

    I don't have him in my top 30, but he is in my top 50 (likely around 40ish).

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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    i still like him just under PPG.
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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    I agree around the #30 overall player mark would be good over/under for 2021-22.
    I think the risk (50-70 player) is greater... more likely/possible... than the reward (10-15 overall possibility)... so I could see him sliding even to a 4th round (37-48) of a 12-team draft.

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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    I still like Seguin although I too am thinking that his PPG+ days may be over. I think the 65 - 70 pt projections are realistic. He's had a rough two years so how he can rebound from that is simply unknown, but for a player of his quality it's worth taking on some risk. I'm not certain he remains top 30, but if he can put the extended time lost injuries behind him, he is damn close. I like the idea of moving your fringe players for picks and keeping Seguin in your back pocket. Again some risk here, but I think it's a chance worth taking.
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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    I'd put him in the 60pt-70pt range.
    I think he could put up more if he stays healthy but I need to see a healthy season first.
    Agree with Axe, Top 30 skater but probably in the 25-30 range until I see more.

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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    Those sogs are money in the bank too! I think his game will age racefully ala patty kane and I think the new recruits along with Roope being given more rope and knowing what to do with it hould lleviate some of the pressure on him. I think h averages 70 points the next 4-5 years al5hough Im worried year one he may be slower as he acclimates from injury. I could also see him setting new benchmark/highs the following year when hes fully healthy,\. Hes a building block still.

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    Default Re: Tyler Seguin - Where do we rank him next season?

    Thanks for the quick replies everyone, was a nice surprise when I woke up after posting it before i went to bed (west coast).

    From what ive gathered, I would not be crazy to keep Seguin. Top 30 is keeper worthy and of course there is some risk. If he were healthy and productive, he would be kept. SOGs are an important peripheral in this league (1 pt G/A, 0.1 pt SOG) as 10 SOGs = 1 point. An extra SOG per game over a full season is 8 pts. An extra 2 SOGs (in the event Tyler averages 4 per when a meh forward averages 2 per) is 16 pts. That is alot.

    This specific league is a 12-man keep 3 + rookie and my other keepers are Matthews, probably Svechnikov, Kaprizov and one more keeper slot. I have guys like Landeskog, Trocheck, Kopitar, Forsberg and Josi who could all make their case to be kept but should be able to get me some picks in the offseason (I moved my 3rd and 7th rounders for rentals). Wingers are definitely more valued than centres in this league so I could probably get a pretty penny for Landy and maybe Filip.

    The timing of this question is because I have one more RW game left to utilize before the season ends for the championship and my last spare spot is Craig Smith or Tyler Seguin as I have him on IR still. I was planning on either playing Craig for his game on Thursday vs a Tired Rangers or Tyler for his game on Friday vs hopefully not Vasilevskiy. However, if I need to make a move Id drop Smith + Tyler into the waiver wire abyss for noone to get. However, if there's some keeper value there then possibly marginal improvement be damned and just run Tyler out there on Friday!
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