HELP - Who are my keepers

[cross9295]

I appreciate all advice and opinions, thank you in advance.

I play in a keeper league that allows 4 keepers. Head to Head: stats are Goals, assists, points, plus/minus, Power play points, Shots, hits, Wins, Saves, save %.

My top seven players are:

Kucherov
Crosby
Brady Tkachuk
Matt Tkachuk
Debrincat
Zibanejad
Kaprizov

Basically I think Kucherov, Crosby and Brady are locks. Brady is leading the league in shots and hits and his points and plus/minus are bound to improve as he ages and Ottawa gets better. Kucherov is a no brainer, and Crosby is ageless and proving to still be a top 10 in my league. Am I wrong about these three?

My thoughts on the others are:

Matt Tkachuk - very tantalizing, if Calgary had a better team he would be my choice, but Calgary is spinning in the mud right now.
Zibanejad - NY has a great surrounding cast. Ziba fills all 7 stats relating to skaters. He's young enough but no contract guarantee after next year.
Debrincat - Already has a 40 goal campaign and on pace for another this year (prorated over 82 games). Plays with Kane and Kubalik is looking good. Chicago pretty week overall though and his 5'7 165lbs stature worries me that he quickly becomes a Gaudreau 2.0.
Kaprizov - Small sample size but his shot and goals are looking great. Almost a point per game player already playing on a defensive minded team and first year in NHL. However I hold the 5th overall pick next year and feel he is the most likely to be able to redraft. At 24 years of age could already be entering prime.

Thoughts???? Thank you again!

[Eskimo Brother]

Welcome to the forums!

I don't think Tkachuk has the scoring upside nor the floor to be considered over your other options. Debrincat brings the goals, but isn't as great in the rest of the categories.
For me it comes down to Zibs or Kaprizov. If you have limited C slots (2 each in a 10-12 team league or something), then Kaprizov may have a bit of an edge there. It depends if you want the current peak of Zibs, or the likely ascension of Kaprizov over the next few years. Tough to make a bad choice between the two.

[HRM Fantasy Fan]

I’d take Kucherov, Crosby, Debrincat and Zibanejad honestly think this is an easy choice. I really believe that the Tkachuks are overrated and you should be able to get a mint in a trade. I was on a thread earlier this year and there was an actual debate about whether to trade Tkachuk for Marner. Like hit accept all day. I would search out that route and see if you can trade both of them for like MacKinnon or something.

[skinnypete88]

I will be crazy here and disagree with Eskimo..

Brady is ranked 8th in my league and that's with his 28 points. We have slightly different stats that help him, namely his 49 PIM that helps but I don't think a guy who produces 4 SOG/Hits per game should be dropped in favour of the other Tkachuk, Kaprizov and Debrincat. And I agree that his points and plus/minus have room for improvement.

Zibby is the easy pick for me, Kaprizov has great upside sure but in a keep 4 and say a 10-12 team league (or however many teams there are in yours) I think you can let him go this year.

Do you not have goalies worth keeping? I would also consider trying to flip Zibby for a goalie and then keep Kaprizov

[cross9295]

Thanks for the welcome Eskimo and for everyone's thoughts. With Kuch out this year I went big game hunting and tried to aggressively trade for McDavid, Matthews, Mackinnon and Draisatl by offering Crosby, Ziba and Debrincat for one of them (for Mcdavid I even included a 1st). It was lopsided but I was thinking about next year; either way nobody accepted.

Goalies I have Rask, Halak, Lankinen, Talbot and Ullmark - so no one worth keeping.

I disagree about overvaluing Brady. He is singularly unique. The only player in nhl history who may get a 300 shot and 300 hit season (although I assume if the stats were kept Bobby Orr would have it). Brady is 21 years of age, plays on a shit team, has a -18, only 9 ppp's and 28 points overall. Even with this he is still ranked 22nd in my league. When the day comes he puts up 30goals, 35 assists, close to neutral plus/minus, and 15-20 ppp's then he will be firmly in the top 15 year over year. I don't think he has the hands and ability to be a 80-90 point player but if he does then he is top 5. I think a 30-30 season comes next year given Batherson, Stutzle, Norris, dadonov, Brown, White, Chabot helping.

This is also why I have a tough time evaluating Matt Tkachuk. He does seem to have the skill and shot to be a consistent 80 point player with 250 shots and 200 hits. Problem for me is he is far riskier then Ziba (ignoring of course his first 27 games this year which I think can be chalked up to his problem with COVID and then missing Panarin).

[Eskimo Brother]

I will be crazy here and disagree with Eskimo..

Brady is ranked 8th in my league and that's with his 28 points. We have slightly different stats that help him, namely his 49 PIM that helps but I don't think a guy who produces 4 SOG/Hits per game should be dropped in favour of the other Tkachuk, Kaprizov and Debrincat. And I agree that his points and plus/minus have room for improvement.

Zibby is the easy pick for me, Kaprizov has great upside sure but in a keep 4 and say a 10-12 team league (or however many teams there are in yours) I think you can let him go this year.

Do you not have goalies worth keeping? I would also consider trying to flip Zibby for a goalie and then keep Kaprizov

Don't worry, you're not crazy, and you're not actually disagreeing with me haha. I was talking about Matthew Tkachuk not having the offensive ceiling to be worth keeping over the other options. I agree that Brady, Crosby, and Kuch are locks.

Tough to argue against Zibs, and he would probably be the one I would go for, and hope to re-draft Kaprizov. I think he would slip to round 2 or 3 (unless he shines on a bigger stage in the playoffs and ups his name value), but Zibs you won't be able to redraft at that point.

[IngeTheHammerStrom]

In a keep 4 I would go with Kucherov, Crosby, Tkachuk and Kaprizov (although Zibs was really close and would have no issues swapping Zibs for Kaprizov). In my league with similar stats B Tkachuk is highly coveted as he basically wins you one category every week and really helps with the SOG's category. I do not have Tkachuk, and based on this I build my team to ensure I will win in the other categories. It really depends on how players are valued and who you think you can drop and likely re-draft. I know in my league that you would not be able to trade Kaprizov or Zibs for B Tkachuk - and based on this I keep B Tkachuk and construct my team around him.

[skinnypete88]

Don't worry, you're not crazy, and you're not actually disagreeing with me haha. I was talking about Matthew Tkachuk not having the offensive ceiling to be worth keeping over the other options. I agree that Brady, Crosby, and Kuch are locks.

Tough to argue against Zibs, and he would probably be the one I would go for, and hope to re-draft Kaprizov. I think he would slip to round 2 or 3 (unless he shines on a bigger stage in the playoffs and ups his name value), but Zibs you won't be able to redraft at that point.

Ah I missed that, my mistake!

In that case I agree with Eskimo

[This Guy]

In a keep 4 I'd go with Crosby, Kucherov, Zibenajad, and Kaprizov. I like Debrincat but he's feasted on Detroit this year and once the schedule normalizes next season I think he might have a slight regression. There is a case for Brady Tkachuk (the +/- in Ottawa will suck for a while), I just like NYR a lot and Kaprizov is going to be a points stud.

[YzermansLegacy]

Think the masses have spoken so nothing too unique to contribute... but will say that in a Keep 4, you basically want "elite" or "going to be elite" in those slots. (Feel free to search the archives for the massive discrepancy in what the term 'elite' means lol)

As you and others have said - Kuch, Sid & Brady are "elite" in many cats. Zib can be elite (in a number of them) and Kaprizov sure looks like he's going to be.

For me - Kuch, Sid, Brady & Zibby.

But as you've identified, the ultimate move is if you can consolidate (2 for 1 or even 3 for 1) for the cream of the crop.

Consider this: You offer, Sid, Kucherov, Kaprizov for McDavid.

That leaves you with: McDavid, Brady, Zibby and either Matthew/ADB. (Not quite as sexy but in 2 years? 3 years from now?)

Not that I'd expect the Connor manager to make that deal - just a point that it's 100% fine (imo) to drastically overpay for the truly elite guys in a keep 4 format.