[TRADE] Caps Acquire Mantha for Vrana

[stevegamer]

I think both teams did well.

For whatever reason, Vrana wasn't being used in Washington, Detroit gets picks as well as the younger player.

Mantha fits the Cpitals winger model pretty well, bigger physical guy.

[4T2]

Anyone know if Vrana has to quarantine going to Detroit? And if so for how long?

[hockeyrobot]

I don't believe either side will have to quarantine.

[agentzero]

I don't believe either side will have to quarantine.

Correct. It's the US of A. No quarantine..


I honestly believe both players will fall short of the expectations people had for them. Vrana couldn't play in his own end the way Laviolette wanted him to. Mantha's effort is oft-questioned and it's puzzling that someone with that skillset can't hold it together for longer stretches.

I say both top out as low 60s players in points.

[newfcollins]

Correct. It's the US of A. No quarantine..

That's not a guarantee. Lemieux had to quarantine when he was dealt from the Rangers to the Kings. I'm not sure if it's dependent on the state, or different divisions, or what the criteria are.

[Zorro]

Great return for Steve Yzerman and the Detroit Red Wings!!

[lucafen4]

So anecdotal then.

Blake Wheeler broke out before 300
So did Zibenejad
So did Voracek
Nick Ritchie hasn't broke out and hasn't reached 400 games (isn't really all that close)
Darnell Nurse and Jeff Petry aren't forwards.

Something something horses or something.

Definitely haven't missed anything. Because relying on data is easy, and relying on unresearched narratives that you're unwilling to question is. Well.

Zibs career high was 51pts until 18/19 when he hit 400gp and became a pt/gm player
Who said it was limited to forwards? Dmen can be large players too.


Like I said earlier. Spruce - Pine. You accept your info. I'll accept mine. And I'll snag players you care not for and watch them explode.

[rataylor22]

Zibs career high was 51pts until 18/19 when he hit 400gp and became a pt/gm player
Who said it was limited to forwards? Dmen can be large players too.


Like I said earlier. Spruce - Pine. You accept your info. I'll accept mine. And I'll snag players you care not for and watch them explode.

There's many ways to come to the same conclusion. Your wrong anecdotal way or many other ways. Just because people don't blindly follow fake anecdotal conclusions doesn't mean they miss out on advantageous opportunities.

Updated with more time for anyone reading this thread and actually tracking data:

Blake Wheeler: 127 points in first 244 games (4 seasons) = 0.52 P/g, next season 64 points in 82 games (age 25). Next "breakout" (9th season, age 29) was in 2015-2016 after playing 533 games and 362 points, he scored 78 points in 82 games. Nothing to do with 400 games.

Mika Zibanejad: 31 points in first 120 games (3 seasons) = 0.26 P/g, next season 46 points in 80 games (age 21). Next "breakout" was in 2018-2019 (8th season, age 25) after playing 409 games and 212 points, he scored 74 points in 82 games. If you subscribed to the "400 games" theory he would have still not broken out and sold him anyways.

Jake Voracek: 183 points in first 319 games (4 seasons) = 0.57 P/g, next season 46 points in 48 games (age 23). There is no "next breakout", just uncorrelated year to year fluctuation in production. Nothing to do with 400 games.

Jeff Petry: 125 points in first 445 games (7 seasons) = 0.28 P/g, next season 42 points in 82 games (age 28). Next "breakout" is 2020-2021 (11th season, age 32) after playing 680 games and 253 points, he has 30 points in 39 games. No correlation to 400 games.

Darnell Nurse: 47 points in first 197 games (4 seasons) = 0.24 P/g, next season 41 points in 82 games (age 23). Darnell Nurse has not played 400 games (393), but count me as skeptical that he is about to turn into a 60 point defenseman next season at age 26. I guess we can track and find out.

Tom Wilson: 104 points in first 391 games (5 seasons) = 0.27 P/g, next seasons 40 points in 63 games (age 24). There has been no "next breakout".

Anthony Mantha: 135 points in first 217 games (4 seasons) = 0.62 P/g, next season 38 points in 43 games (age 25). Anthony Mantha, if he stays healthy, will not have played 400 games until the end of 2022, but I will be very interested to track if he becomes a 90+ point player (up from the 73 point player he was in 2019-2020) at age 28.

So among this list of examples you've got Zibanejad (maybe) and Tom Wilson, although you have to wonder if Tom Wilson magically started playing with Ovechkin and Backstrom/Kuznetsov at even strength because he had played 400 games and Washington was ready for him to breakout or if because they signed him to a massive contract extension and needed to justify it. Anyways, this just looks like a collection of players with breakouts at different ages, GP thresholds, and number of seasons played but it looks much more likely that if there is any correlation it is more likely to be age than GP. But if you look at this list and go "Yep 400 GP that's the ticket" then cool.

[agentzero]

That's not a guarantee. Lemieux had to quarantine when he was dealt from the Rangers to the Kings. I'm not sure if it's dependent on the state, or different divisions, or what the criteria are.

I didn't recall that about Lemieux. Not sure but I saw no mention of it anywhere, post-trade. Comments in the news seem to indicate him playing next game.... Suppose it's conjecture but would have figured they'd have announced it if there was a need to..

[lucafen4]

There's many ways to come to the same conclusion. Your wrong anecdotal way or many other ways. Just because people don't blindly follow fake anecdotal conclusions doesn't mean they miss out on advantageous opportunities.

Updated with more time for anyone reading this thread and actually tracking data:

Blake Wheeler: 127 points in first 244 games (4 seasons) = 0.52 P/g, next season 64 points in 82 games (age 25). Next "breakout" (9th season, age 29) was in 2015-2016 after playing 533 games and 362 points, he scored 78 points in 82 games. Nothing to do with 400 games.

Mika Zibanejad: 31 points in first 120 games (3 seasons) = 0.26 P/g, next season 46 points in 80 games (age 21). Next "breakout" was in 2018-2019 (8th season, age 25) after playing 409 games and 212 points, he scored 74 points in 82 games. If you subscribed to the "400 games" theory he would have still not broken out and sold him anyways.

Jake Voracek: 183 points in first 319 games (4 seasons) = 0.57 P/g, next season 46 points in 48 games (age 23). There is no "next breakout", just uncorrelated year to year fluctuation in production. Nothing to do with 400 games.

Jeff Petry: 125 points in first 445 games (7 seasons) = 0.28 P/g, next season 42 points in 82 games (age 28). Next "breakout" is 2020-2021 (11th season, age 32) after playing 680 games and 253 points, he has 30 points in 39 games. No correlation to 400 games.

Darnell Nurse: 47 points in first 197 games (4 seasons) = 0.24 P/g, next season 41 points in 82 games (age 23). Darnell Nurse has not played 400 games (393), but count me as skeptical that he is about to turn into a 60 point defenseman next season at age 26. I guess we can track and find out.

Tom Wilson: 104 points in first 391 games (5 seasons) = 0.27 P/g, next seasons 40 points in 63 games (age 24). There has been no "next breakout".

Anthony Mantha: 135 points in first 217 games (4 seasons) = 0.62 P/g, next season 38 points in 43 games (age 25). Anthony Mantha, if he stays healthy, will not have played 400 games until the end of 2022, but I will be very interested to track if he becomes a 90+ point player (up from the 73 point player he was in 2019-2020) at age 28.

So among this list of examples you've got Zibanejad (maybe) and Tom Wilson, although you have to wonder if Tom Wilson magically started playing with Ovechkin and Backstrom/Kuznetsov at even strength because he had played 400 games and Washington was ready for him to breakout or if because they signed him to a massive contract extension and needed to justify it. Anyways, this just looks like a collection of players with breakouts at different ages, GP thresholds, and number of seasons played but it looks much more likely that if there is any correlation it is more likely to be age than GP. But if you look at this list and go "Yep 400 GP that's the ticket" then cool.

What's really funny is that
A. no one said 'next breakout' that's Ratataylor word association & creation games there.
B. your long winded post if you break it down - actually supports big man breakout theory. LMAO. Same with 200gp BT. it's not an exact science. it is not 'at game 400 this player will blow up' Not every one will. Not everyone will magically hit it on Game 400. For some it may be 365 or 430. 400 is a nice round number at the mean of those breakouts.

But thanks for supporting the theory you just wrote 500 words discounting

- - - Updated - - -

I didn't recall that about Lemieux. Not sure but I saw no mention of it anywhere, post-trade. Comments in the news seem to indicate him playing next game.... Suppose it's conjecture but would have figured they'd have announced it if there was a need to..

Yes, he had a 7 day quarantine when joining LA. It is entirely state dependent.

[rataylor22]

What's really funny is that
A. no one said 'next breakout' that's Ratataylor word association & creation games there.
B. your long winded post if you break it down - actually supports big man breakout theory. LMAO. Same with 200gp BT. it's not an exact science. it is not 'at game 400 this player will blow up' Not every one will. Not everyone will magically hit it on Game 400. For some it may be 365 or 430. 400 is a nice round number at the mean of those breakouts.

But thanks for supporting the theory you just wrote 500 words discounting

- - - Updated - - -

Yes, he had a 7 day quarantine when joining LA. It is entirely state dependent.

Hilarious and on brand that your takeaway from that is "no this is actually correct"

[hockeyrobot]

I've lost track of what is being "argued" here.

Go Wings Go.

[rataylor22]

Go Wings Go.

Agreed. Was a Wings fan back in the Stevie-Y days. Vrana and Larkin are gonna be electric together.

Stevie-Y is back, Crosby is getting close to retiring, maybe it's time to jump back in.

[Axeman33]

Really good read from Lebrun about this deal and how Detroit, although did well on this trade, didn't do quite as well as some may think when you consider they had to take Oanik's contract on to make this happen.

For those with The Athletic subscription:

https://theathletic.com/2515403/2021...shared-article

Sharing a snippet:

So look at the trade as two separate transactions:

1. Pánik plus a draft pick to relieve the Caps of a $2.75 million AAV over the next two-plus years in a flat cap environment.

2. Vrana plus a draft pick for Mantha.

That’s exactly how I think the Capitals view this deal. And from that perspective, it’s not a crazy overpay at all.

He also expects to see a lot more of these types of deals this summer.

[hockeyrobot]

I get what he's saying, and that's why it's not a horrible move for Washington. But Detroit will be dropping Helm, Filppula and Staal this summer. Nielsen and DeKeyser next summer. $22.8 million between those pilons.