[TRADE] Caps Acquire Mantha for Vrana

[rataylor22]

Here's an article I found from October 2018: https://canucksarmy.com/2018/10/23/w...oving-forward/
It cites Garret Hohl of Hockey Data Inc. laying out the logic behind the threshold. There's a lot of data there.

As far as the 400 GP threshold for players on each extreme of the size spectrum, it does also mention in the article that, "certain groups of players may be unfairly disadvantaged... including small players." Maybe this is where that originates from.

Can't claim to fully grasp it all myself, but I assume the additional context couldn't hurt. Hope it helps. Cheers!

Thanks! This data is consistent with my understanding that Mantha is nearing the end of his statistical prime, not still waiting to reach his breakout threshold.

[hockeyrobot]

Seeing as no one has really developed in Detroit I think Mantha still has the upside we dreamed about. But.... Still a great haul.

[lucafen4]

Yea, pointing out outliers never makes the argument people want it to make. Verhaege is also younger than Mantha is right now and has still played in less than 100 NHL games. His AHL results indicate this season was possible (and that he needed a change in opportunity). Mantha was playing first line first PP. I'd like to know who Mantha is displacing of L1 in Washington or off of PP1, or what big positive change in opportunity Mantha is about to receive.

Change in opportunity? In 7 years he's gone from

Toronto - spent 3 season with Marlies pre-Matthews/Marner/Tavares - before he was offloaded with 4 other prospects to the Islanders for Grabner
NY-Islanders - spent 2 seasons (sent to ECHL) - Isle's not exactly an offensive juggernaut either.
Tampa - signed him for nothing - got a taste of NHL in 4th line role.
Florida - signs him and boom.

I'm not sure the change in opportunity he needed when it's really him not creating & grabbing an opportunity over the first 5 years of his career. Three teams let him go for nothing - two were desperate for offense at the time they let him go.

he's a late bloomer... an example of someone finding extra runway to develop. aka outlier.
No matter what example I gave you'd call it an outlier to suit your narrative.

No one mentioned Mantha was taking anyone's place on PP1 - that seems like a Rata-creation as I don't recall anyone saying mantha's taking a pp1 spot in Wsh.

[silkysmooth]

No one mentioned Mantha was taking anyone's place on PP1 - that seems like a Rata-creation as I don't recall anyone saying mantha's taking a pp1 spot in Wsh.

You do not trade Vrana, a 1st, and a 2nd round pick for Mantha and have him on PP2 and anything less than a top role at even strength. They will find space for him, and I won't be surprised if he boots Wilson off the top line at ES.

[rataylor22]

Change in opportunity? In 7 years he's gone from

Toronto - spent 3 season with Marlies pre-Matthews/Marner/Tavares - before he was offloaded with 4 other prospects to the Islanders for Grabner
NY-Islanders - spent 2 seasons (sent to ECHL) - Isle's not exactly an offensive juggernaut either.
Tampa - signed him for nothing - got a taste of NHL in 4th line role.
Florida - signs him and boom.

I'm not sure the change in opportunity he needed when it's really him not creating & grabbing an opportunity over the first 5 years of his career. Three teams let him go for nothing - two were desperate for offense at the time they let him go.

he's a late bloomer... an example of someone finding extra runway to develop. aka outlier.
No matter what example I gave you'd call it an outlier to suit your narrative.

No one mentioned Mantha was taking anyone's place on PP1 - that seems like a Rata-creation as I don't recall anyone saying mantha's taking a pp1 spot in Wsh.

Correct, nobody has said that. They've just said that Mantha is going to break out in Washington. I'm asking for the rationale, and nobody has been able to provide one. He's 26, 300 games into his career, going to a worse opportunity. The only justification seems to be a narrative based on him being "big", but nobody can provide any data to back up the narrative that that actually matters. Then we come in with the Carter Verhaege reference, which is weird because it's not like Verhaege isn't even big, so it doesn't even fit in with narrative being spun here. I'm just asking for a justification for the statement, it shouldn't seemingly be so hard to provide one if it's so valid.

If you could provide like 10 names, then I wouldn't be able to call that an outlier (because it's obviously not). But if you throw out one single name, with completely different metrics and circumstances, that seemingly is completely irrelevant to this situation other than it's a name you can think of, well then yes I'm going to call that an outlier because that is what an outlier is.

[silkysmooth]

Correct, nobody has said that. They've just said that Mantha is going to break out in Washington. I'm asking for the rationale, and nobody has been able to provide one. He's 26, 300 games into his career, going to a worse opportunity. The only justification seems to be a narrative based on him being "big", but nobody can provide any data to back up the narrative that that actually matters. Then we come in with the Carter Verhaege reference, which is weird because it's not like Verhaege isn't even big, so it doesn't even fit in with narrative being spun here. I'm just asking for a justification for the statement, it shouldn't seemingly be so hard to provide one if it's so valid.

If you could provide like 10 names, then I wouldn't be able to call that an outlier (because it's obviously not). But if you throw out one single name, with completely different metrics and circumstances, that seemingly is completely irrelevant to this situation other than it's a name you can think of, well then yes I'm going to call that an outlier because that is what an outlier is.

I would argue he already broke out, but people aren't valuing him how they should and are too focused on his production this year.

In his third full season (150gp at start of season) he put up 48 pts in 67 gp (pace of 59 pts).
The year after in his fourth full season, he put up 38 points in 43 gp (pace of 73 pts). That was on a terrible team, too.

This year is a blip--no one on the red wings can score, even someone highly talented like Larkin. If he can put up a pace of 73 pts the season before this one on a terrible team and while he was still developing, I don't see how anyone can argue "he is what he is" and treat him like a 50-60 pt guy.

[rataylor22]

I would argue he already broke out, but people aren't valuing him how they should and are too focused on his production this year.

In his third full season (150gp at start of season) he put up 48 pts in 67 gp (pace of 59 pts).
The year after in his fourth full season, he put up 38 points in 43 gp (pace of 73 pts). That was on a terrible team, too.

This year is a blip--no one on the red wings can score, even someone highly talented like Larkin. If he can put up a pace of 73 pts the season before this one on a terrible team and while he was still developing, I don't see how anyone can argue "he is what he is" and treat him like a 50-60 pt guy.

The bolded part doesn't really align with the rest of your point.

Maybe people are taking "he is what he is" as a negative statement, although I wouldn't know why.

I agree with you, Mantha has already broken out and is likely a 60-70 point player. That's what he is and is a good player.

I just don't know why anyone thinks there is any development runway left here.

[silkysmooth]

The bolded part doesn't really align with the rest of your point.

Maybe people are taking "he is what he is" as a negative statement, although I wouldn't know why.

I agree with you, Mantha has already broken out and is likely a 60-70 point player. That's what he is and is a good player.

I just don't know why anyone thinks there is any development runway left here.

I guess we sort of agree then--he has broken out, but did so on a terrible team and still put up impressive numbers.

I view him as a 70-75 pt guy on Washington if everything clicks--but that's not because I see it as a "breakout" for him. Moreso, he's just a really good player and has faced tough competition on an absolutely atrocious team.

[lucafen4]

compared to NHL players 6'5" 235lbs is on the larger end of the spectrum. The upper 10% in size one can safely presume
I'm glad you've done your thorough research and reached your conclusion that Mantha at 300 games doesn't qualify for the 'big-man' theory and therefore gets no further consideration for a potential 400gp breakout threshold.

that's your prerogative. I love being in pools with guys like you, it allows me to grab players like Mantha & Zacha among others on the cheap because they've reached the end of their runway.
(Zacha at 6'3" also falls into big-man theory and at 300+ games is trending towards 400gp breakout).

but... I could cut down a spruce tree and you'd argue it was a pine.. but I digress.

[FatFrodo]

Can Mantha join Washington right away or does he need some sort of quarantine?

[chuckcouples]

So Washington gave up a draft pick to downgrade from Vrana to Mantha. That's not a great move. They were able to unload Panik's contract for another pick so that part was useful. This is a great deal for Detroit.

[rataylor22]

compared to NHL players 6'5" 235lbs is on the larger end of the spectrum. The upper 10% in size one can safely presume
I'm glad you've done your thorough research and reached your conclusion that Mantha at 300 games doesn't qualify for the 'big-man' theory and therefore gets no further consideration for a potential 400gp breakout threshold.

that's your prerogative. I love being in pools with guys like you, it allows me to grab players like Mantha & Zacha among others on the cheap because they've reached the end of their runway.
(Zacha at 6'3" also falls into big-man theory and at 300+ games is trending towards 400gp breakout).

but... I could cut down a spruce tree and you'd argue it was a pine.. but I digress.

Again. You haven't provided any evidence that the theory is more than an anecdotal narrative. Such evidence shouldn't be hard to provide. Saying it's "talked about in the guide" isn't evidence unless the guide provides the evidence.

[lucafen4]

Again. You haven't provided any evidence that the theory is more than an anecdotal narrative. Such evidence shouldn't be hard to provide. Saying it's "talked about in the guide" isn't evidence unless the guide provides the evidence.

I don't really have the time or the desire to get into someone elses theory that I 've accepted & has provided my fantasy dynasty teams with roster advantages.
I also don't really care if you accept it or not. If you don't, you're simply going to miss buy low opportunities.

I'll indulge briefly with a couple examples of players that broke out much closer to the 400gp threshold .... that if you accepted the 200gp BT then you wrote them off and sold low, or missed a buy low

Blake Wheeler, Mike Zibinejad, Jakob Voracek, Nick Ritchie, Jeff Petry, Darnell Nurse.

No one is saying it's 100% accurate. But if a player is over 6'2 / 215 - they need more patience in their development. It's a tool for the fantasy tool belt.

Lead a horse to water as they say...

[rataylor22]

So anecdotal then.

Blake Wheeler broke out before 300
So did Zibenejad
So did Voracek
Nick Ritchie hasn't broke out and hasn't reached 400 games (isn't really all that close)
Darnell Nurse and Jeff Petry aren't forwards.

Something something horses or something.

Definitely haven't missed anything. Because relying on data is easy, and relying on unresearched narratives that you're unwilling to question is. Well.

[Reverend of Hockeytown]

I cannot even begin to fully explain how happy I am that Stevie Y. pulled this deal off. What an absolute HAUL the Wings got in this deal.