[TRADE] Caps Acquire Mantha for Vrana

[lucafen4]

I would be interested in seeing the model you're using where a player who is 26 with 300 GP hasn't hit their breakout threshold yet. Mantha (and Vrana for that matter) are who they are. Vrana probably is going to get a lot more points than he currently has to this point in career due to significantly more opportunity, rather than any increased development.

Good time to Plug Dobbers Guide because it's in there. It's mentioned under almost every team within the guide.

Mantha's over 6-5 234lbs. - Means he fits the 'big-man theory.

Larger players (6-2 215lb or bigger) take longer to reach offensive peaks - 400gp is the threshold vs. 200gp for 'average sized players' according to the theory - similar to players under 5-8.

[rataylor22]

Is it data-backed, or narrative?

[JHM]

Mantha best bounce back .... starting this week.

[Kofax]

Is it data-backed, or narrative?

I believe it was added a year or two ago based on data.

[lucafen4]

Is it data-backed, or narrative?

that's a question for Striker, Dobber, Eric and those involved in putting together the guide & development of the theory.

One would assume that to include it as a 'theory' in an annual guide that there would be data available to back & support it vs. just spitballing.

You can buy that guide and get more info on it yourself. (it's not the first time it's been mentioned in the forums either)

[rataylor22]

Yes I know I can buy the guide. I used to, I do not now, for my own reasons.

[newfcollins]

There was a guy named Striker who often commented on the ramblings who came up with the theory. He wrote a column about it and has been tracking it since the lockout. I believe it's correct 80 per cent of the time, or something like that.

[rataylor22]

EyzJTqOVoAQzSQy.jpg

EyzJTqPUYAMRS5p.jpg

Eyes emoji

[lucafen4]

Do we consider this full circle for Panik?

It was Yzerman that originally waived him at the end of camp in TB - where Tor claimed him years ago - now they reacquire him as a salary dump by Wsh.

[4T2]

I would be interested in seeing the model you're using where a player who is 26 with 300 GP hasn't hit their breakout threshold yet. Mantha (and Vrana for that matter) are who they are. Vrana probably is going to get a lot more points than he currently has to this point in career due to significantly more opportunity, rather than any increased development.

I’m so glad all these players “are who they are”, it makes player evaluation so much easier when you don’t have to worry about development , growth or change of circumstances

[rataylor22]

I’m so glad all these players “are who they are”, it makes player evaluation so much easier when you don’t have to worry about development , growth or change of circumstances

I believe I specifically referenced change in circumstances. I'm sorry the player development runway isn't as long as you want it to be.

[lucafen4]

I believe I specifically referenced change in circumstances. I'm sorry the player development runway isn't as long as you want it to be.

Carter Verhaeghe says hello

[silkysmooth]

Mantha best bounce back .... starting this week.

Totally--I love this for Mantha owners.

[rataylor22]

Carter Verhaeghe says hello

Yea, pointing out outliers never makes the argument people want it to make. Verhaege is also younger than Mantha is right now and has still played in less than 100 NHL games. His AHL results indicate this season was possible (and that he needed a change in opportunity). Mantha was playing first line first PP. I'd like to know who Mantha is displacing of L1 in Washington or off of PP1, or what big positive change in opportunity Mantha is about to receive.

[SolitaryMoments]

Is it data-backed, or narrative?

Here's an article I found from October 2018: https://canucksarmy.com/2018/10/23/w...oving-forward/
It cites Garret Hohl of Hockey Data Inc. laying out the logic behind the threshold. There's a lot of data there.

As far as the 400 GP threshold for players on each extreme of the size spectrum, it does also mention in the article that, "certain groups of players may be unfairly disadvantaged... including small players." Maybe this is where that originates from.

Can't claim to fully grasp it all myself, but I assume the additional context couldn't hurt. Hope it helps. Cheers!