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Thread: Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

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    E63Wagon's Avatar
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    Default Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

    I'm always struggling to gauge/measure a Player's worth based on their performance and their Salary/AAV hit.

    So my Salary Keeper League details are as follows:

    10 teams: 32 player roster, 20 active players each week including maximum of 2 goalies. No IR/IR+.

    F/D:
    G, A, PPA, PPG, +/-, Hits, BLKS, Shifts, TOI, PEN
    G: GAA, Saves, SPCT, TOI, WSO

    81.5M Weekly AAV



    In the free agency pool, there are currently players with extremely high AAV to moderately high AAV and it's always a challenge figuring out if I should pick these players up. In most leagues, these guys are "must adds" but in a league where we only have 81.5M of total AAV to work with, we heavily rely on rookies who perform or other cheap players who are producing. So my question to you guys is, should the following players be added or does it make sense they are sitting in the free agency pool.

    Or another question would be, where do you guys draw the line when adding a high Salary/AAV player? Do they have to hit multiple categories in order for them to be worthy of an add?


    High AAV
    Erik Karlsson - $11.5M
    John Tavares - $11.0M
    Drew Doughty - $11.0M
    Jack Eichel - $10.0M
    Alex Pietrangelo - $8.8M
    Claude Giroux - $8.275M
    Jakub Voracek - $8.25M
    OEL - $8.25M
    Brent Burns - $8.0M
    Thomas Chabot - $8.0M
    Taylor Hall - $8.0M
    Logan Couture - $8.0M
    Shea Weber - $7.86M
    Aaron Ekblad - $7.5M


    Moderately High AAV
    David Krejci - $7.25M
    Clayton Keller - $7.15M
    Anders Lee - $7.0M
    Mark Giordano - $6.75M
    Ryan McDonagh - $6.75M
    Keith Yandle - $6.35M
    Alexander Radulov - $6.25M
    Dylan Larkin - $6.1M
    Matt Dumba - $6.0M
    Brock Nelson - $6.0M
    Dustin Brown -$5.875M


    I highlighted Eichel because he's a good example of the struggles that exist in this league. We all know he's an elite player, but he's on a crap team, so is he truly worth a roster spot or a keeper spot at $10M AAV?
    SalaryKeeper ROTO-Add/Drops/Trades require IRL $
    12 Teams - 32 Player Roster -20 Active - Min 5D to Max 7D - Min 11F to Max 13F
    16 Keepers (G=2 Keeper spots)
    83.5M Weekly AAV - Bench does not count towards salary cap

    F/D: G, A, PPA, PPG, +/-, Hits, BLKS, Shifts (0.5), TOI (0.5), PEN
    G: GAA, Saves, SPCT, TOI, Wins, SO, OTL (0.5)

    Roster
    F: MacKinnon, JT Miller, Kaprizov,
    E.Kane, Caufield, Eichel, Batherson, Malkin, Dach
    Kempe, Greig, Tolvanen, Zary, P.Kane, Foegele, Dowd

    D: Theodore, Chychrun, Drysdale, McAvoy, Matheson, Okhotiuk, M. Roy, Fehervary, Perbix, Martinez, M. Anderson

    G: Thompson, Vanecek, UPL, Lyon, Binnington

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

    If you own players like Hischier or Horvat, then Eichel is someone worth owning for sure.
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    Default Re: Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    If you own players like Hischier or Horvat, then Eichel is someone worth owning for sure.
    I can understand where you're coming from. But Eichel's Plus/Minus can tank you to last place in that category alone.

    Is Eichel worth owning simply because of the potential he brings?

    Let's use Horvat as an example. Let's say you have $12M AAV left on your weekly roster, would you run:

    Horvat + Schenn

    or

    Eichel + someone under $2.0M AAV
    SalaryKeeper ROTO-Add/Drops/Trades require IRL $
    12 Teams - 32 Player Roster -20 Active - Min 5D to Max 7D - Min 11F to Max 13F
    16 Keepers (G=2 Keeper spots)
    83.5M Weekly AAV - Bench does not count towards salary cap

    F/D: G, A, PPA, PPG, +/-, Hits, BLKS, Shifts (0.5), TOI (0.5), PEN
    G: GAA, Saves, SPCT, TOI, Wins, SO, OTL (0.5)

    Roster
    F: MacKinnon, JT Miller, Kaprizov,
    E.Kane, Caufield, Eichel, Batherson, Malkin, Dach
    Kempe, Greig, Tolvanen, Zary, P.Kane, Foegele, Dowd

    D: Theodore, Chychrun, Drysdale, McAvoy, Matheson, Okhotiuk, M. Roy, Fehervary, Perbix, Martinez, M. Anderson

    G: Thompson, Vanecek, UPL, Lyon, Binnington

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    Default Re: Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

    Quote Originally Posted by E63Wagon View Post
    I can understand where you're coming from. But Eichel's Plus/Minus can tank you to last place in that category alone.

    Is Eichel worth owning simply because of the potential he brings?

    Let's use Horvat as an example. Let's say you have $12M AAV left on your weekly roster, would you run:

    Horvat + Schenn

    or

    Eichel + someone under $2.0M AAV
    I'm not saying drop Schenn, who I understand would be a great player to own in this league. I think if you have the option to drop Hischier and Horvat for Eichel and someone making 2.5M, then that's a move I would make.
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    Default Re: Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

    Your league has 2 main issues:

    1. The cap structure has teams leaving stars on the waiver wire. That's never really been a structure that makes fantasy sports fun. I realize teams want it to "be realistic", so they institute the same cap, but with 10-14 teams, that's going to happen. With 32 players per team, instead of 22, that's going to happen. With both it's brutal, unless he weekly AAV is simply for your active roster. If it's the roster as a whole, the structure is flawed.

    2. You use +/-, which to be charitable is a pretty flawed stat. It's highly variable, sums leaguewide to nearly zero (powerplays make it non-zero).


    So to your more ciritical point, do players need to hit all categories? No, they don't but you need to get guys who are cheap doing things that guys who are cheap can do. Hits, blocks, PIM.

    Eichel's worth owning for sure if it's just your active roster that hits the cap - bench him most of the time, but hold him. If he counts against your cap, and you have no IR, he needs to sit in FA until he's healthy, and then he may still need to sit there, as the Sabres are so brutal.

    Horvat/Schenn vs Eichel/somebody is a bad example, because Schenn has a really good contract.

    There's been advice to break your cap into buckets, and since you have 32 players, break it into 4 $20 million buckets, with 8 players each for 32 players. You may find that works well for you.
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    Default Re: Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    Your league has 2 main issues:

    1. The cap structure has teams leaving stars on the waiver wire. That's never really been a structure that makes fantasy sports fun. I realize teams want it to "be realistic", so they institute the same cap, but with 10-14 teams, that's going to happen. With 32 players per team, instead of 22, that's going to happen. With both it's brutal, unless he weekly AAV is simply for your active roster. If it's the roster as a whole, the structure is flawed.

    2. You use +/-, which to be charitable is a pretty flawed stat. It's highly variable, sums leaguewide to nearly zero (powerplays make it non-zero).


    So to your more ciritical point, do players need to hit all categories? No, they don't but you need to get guys who are cheap doing things that guys who are cheap can do. Hits, blocks, PIM.

    Eichel's worth owning for sure if it's just your active roster that hits the cap - bench him most of the time, but hold him. If he counts against your cap, and you have no IR, he needs to sit in FA until he's healthy, and then he may still need to sit there, as the Sabres are so brutal.

    Horvat/Schenn vs Eichel/somebody is a bad example, because Schenn has a really good contract.

    There's been advice to break your cap into buckets, and since you have 32 players, break it into 4 $20 million buckets, with 8 players each for 32 players. You may find that works well for you.

    1. The $81.5M weekly cap is for Active players. The other 12 players on the bench do not count towards it.

    2. Yeah I think I'm like 1 of 3 GMs who have expressed the idea of removing +/-. When I joined the league it was stated that +/- and PEN were a "random" factor to make things more interesting.


    I guess the example was supposed to demonstrate the dilemmas that most GMs run into when setting a weekly lineup. Like do you go with more consistent and reliable players or play Eichel because he's Eichel and see if there is any cheap player around.

    Our league requires IRL money per each add on the free agency. So anyone that is cheap and remotely off to a good start / hot streak will be immediately grabbed. Which means most of the time you work with what you have week to week. So that's what I was trying to explain with the example I gave, you need to constantly weigh the cost and return of player all while maintaining the $81.5M active cap.
    SalaryKeeper ROTO-Add/Drops/Trades require IRL $
    12 Teams - 32 Player Roster -20 Active - Min 5D to Max 7D - Min 11F to Max 13F
    16 Keepers (G=2 Keeper spots)
    83.5M Weekly AAV - Bench does not count towards salary cap

    F/D: G, A, PPA, PPG, +/-, Hits, BLKS, Shifts (0.5), TOI (0.5), PEN
    G: GAA, Saves, SPCT, TOI, Wins, SO, OTL (0.5)

    Roster
    F: MacKinnon, JT Miller, Kaprizov,
    E.Kane, Caufield, Eichel, Batherson, Malkin, Dach
    Kempe, Greig, Tolvanen, Zary, P.Kane, Foegele, Dowd

    D: Theodore, Chychrun, Drysdale, McAvoy, Matheson, Okhotiuk, M. Roy, Fehervary, Perbix, Martinez, M. Anderson

    G: Thompson, Vanecek, UPL, Lyon, Binnington

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

    I understand more now. With Eichel, I'd roster him for sure, and just have him sit in the "minors", and hope for a trade.

    I've been in auction/cap leagues in the 4 major sports, and each has had it's quirks. Rotisserie Baseball is so long-standing and has well-codified rules, so it's easy going from league to league. IDP fantasy football I would simply dominate, as there was maybe one other guy in the league who knew defense as well as I did. Offense-only football was a bit more even. Basketball is a stars & scrubs sport, so you can imagine how much worse that is with real salaries.

    I stopped playing fantasy for real money, and especially where transactions cost real money, a long time ago. While I would turn a profit most years, it removed a lot of fun for me. FAAB solved the issue of deep pockets winning pretty well, honestly.

    I think you should roster players in cost tiers, so that you can make moves where you swap out for scheduling needs. Sort of having X guys around the same cost who are your stars, etc. MacKinnon is a great own in this league, so he's huge for you.

    Good luck.
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    Default Re: Player performance vs Salary/AAV Hit

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I understand more now. With Eichel, I'd roster him for sure, and just have him sit in the "minors", and hope for a trade.
    Yeah I'm leaning on this idea. Probably pick him up and use a keeper spot on him for next season. The previous GM dropped him last week and no other GM has grabbed him yet lol.

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I've been in auction/cap leagues in the 4 major sports, and each has had it's quirks. Rotisserie Baseball is so long-standing and has well-codified rules, so it's easy going from league to league. IDP fantasy football I would simply dominate, as there was maybe one other guy in the league who knew defense as well as I did. Offense-only football was a bit more even. Basketball is a stars & scrubs sport, so you can imagine how much worse that is with real salaries.

    I stopped playing fantasy for real money, and especially where transactions cost real money, a long time ago. While I would turn a profit most years, it removed a lot of fun for me. FAAB solved the issue of deep pockets winning pretty well, honestly.

    I think you should roster players in cost tiers, so that you can make moves where you swap out for scheduling needs. Sort of having X guys around the same cost who are your stars, etc. MacKinnon is a great own in this league, so he's huge for you.

    Good luck.
    Nice. Yeah I can totally imagine how a Salary Capped Basketball league would be haha.

    You're totally right. It's either you pray you've built a solid enough core season to season and hope you drafted well enough in areas your core has holes or you're opening up the wallet to make changes.

    Thanks for the input. Adding rep.
    SalaryKeeper ROTO-Add/Drops/Trades require IRL $
    12 Teams - 32 Player Roster -20 Active - Min 5D to Max 7D - Min 11F to Max 13F
    16 Keepers (G=2 Keeper spots)
    83.5M Weekly AAV - Bench does not count towards salary cap

    F/D: G, A, PPA, PPG, +/-, Hits, BLKS, Shifts (0.5), TOI (0.5), PEN
    G: GAA, Saves, SPCT, TOI, Wins, SO, OTL (0.5)

    Roster
    F: MacKinnon, JT Miller, Kaprizov,
    E.Kane, Caufield, Eichel, Batherson, Malkin, Dach
    Kempe, Greig, Tolvanen, Zary, P.Kane, Foegele, Dowd

    D: Theodore, Chychrun, Drysdale, McAvoy, Matheson, Okhotiuk, M. Roy, Fehervary, Perbix, Martinez, M. Anderson

    G: Thompson, Vanecek, UPL, Lyon, Binnington

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