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Thread: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

  1. #16
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    I would consider this good trade etiquette.

    Don’t back yourself into a corner with a trade, any offer you make via email/DM/Message Board/Discord can be accepted as such even if it ends with “would you accept something like this?”. Avoid any problems by leaving one piece of the trade for your trade partner to decide. Use terms like “2nd rounder of your choice” or “Prospect A/Prospect B”, that way you can let them send you the complete offers to accept or counter.

    This is particularly helpful if you have multiple offers generated for the same player.

    Thoughts?
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  2. #17
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    The biggest question to ask yourself when making a trade is this:

    When does this trade make my team better?

    If the answer to that question is more than 3 years from now, you are not getting enough in return.
    How would you apply this in a deep league where nearly every player and prospect is already owned and you are dealing a veteran nearing the end of career for prospects or draft picks?

    None of the trade assets may be playing in three years, we just don't know.
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    See number of games, off night games and back to back games for each match up

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Trust your gut at the draft table and draft best-available. Do not draft by need. Generally never do that, unless you can hit both need and best available, and you are in contention. But insofar as evaluation, trust your gut.

    Also keep your pre-draft rankings from over the years, as well as your draft results. What were the impacts of your choices? Did you stray from your list and if so, why? Write it down. I keep an excel file. Look back at your busts and try to see decision-making patterns, or evaluation patterns. Adjust them and compare them to more successful teams, or teams on the rise.

    Top notch drafting beats any keeper strategy, so long as you don't make bad trades.
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    Crosby, Wheeler, Bergeron, Forsberg, Connor, Kopitar, E.Lindholm, Pastrnak, DeBrincat, Fiala
    Jones, Klingberg, Hamilton, Theodore, Letang
    Saros, Shesterkin
    Garland, Vrana, Bjorkstrand, Verhaege, Backstrom, Karlsson, Perunovich, Spurgeon, Pulock, Hellebuyck

  4. #19
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by 65jeff View Post
    How would you apply this in a deep league where nearly every player and prospect is already owned and you are dealing a veteran nearing the end of career for prospects or draft picks?

    None of the trade assets may be playing in three years, we just don't know.
    I don't think he means that you shouldn't accept assets with a long trajectory, just that they shouldn't be the only asset. If you are trading a player of value, make sure you are getting something back that can help you soon. More established prospects over recent picks and picks in the upcoming draft over picks in future drafts.

    This is more important in small keeper leagues, where futures don't help if they aren't worth keeping.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    This next piece of advice can be used anytime (even if you are not rebuilding), but is especially effective in the teardown/accumulation phase.

    If your league has IR spots, use them post draft (if the IR player would have some trade value once they’re back on the ice). Assuming you have a replacement level player on your squad that you are willing to risk on the waiver wire - drop him for a player you can immediately stash on IR. Depending on the number of IR spots available, you may be able to add/stash multiple injured players before filling your open roster spot with another waiver pick-up.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    You may feel pressure from another manager to teardown, they will approach you with trade offers that would send you on the teardown path. They may well be right, and if the offer is good and the timing feels right you can make the call. Just remember, it’s your choice - don’t let other managers decide what your team plans are. The other manager is only looking to improve their own squad.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    If you are in a league with a combined draft that is both prospects and non-keepers/free agents, it is important to get a sense of what draft picks are actually worth. Both Yahoo and Fantrax will allow you to view your previous drafts, take a look at each round and make a note of the best players selected in these rounds. When are goalies selected? At what point do the players fall into replacement level/waiver wire level? How many actual prospects are drafted?

    Use this information to put a value on each round, and you'll have a better sense of what is being offered to you in trades, as well as what you should expect from your own picks on draft day.

    Depending on your league size and depth, keeper or full dynasty - the value of picks will be different. This is a good way to get a handle on pick value.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  8. #23
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    If you're interested in winning, stop looking at ages and start looking at production.
    This right here. If you follow this you can almost always compete. I’ll add to it. Take advantage of managers who look at ages and use that to get older players on the cheap. A proven 30ish year old player is way way better than an 18 year old who “will” be amazing in 4 years.

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    You will have to initiate trades, whether you like it or not. You cannot rely on other managers making you offers. It doesn’t have to be aggressive, nor do you need to make the first offer. Sometimes it’s just inquiring about a player and seeing if there is a fit.

    Trade targets:
    Identify a need (Self audit)
    Identify an opportunity (injured player at a discount)
    Trade deadline (trading veteran players for a premium)


    Just a reminder that all of these little pieces of advice are being tracked/linked in the OP, and we are still looking for any advice you might like to share.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  10. #25
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    A quick thought for dynasty leagues with a large minors/farm system.

    This would be equally true for all managers, not just teams in rebuilds. (Though some leagues may have rules against picking up prospects outside of the draft).

    The vast majority of prospects will come out of the first 3 rounds of the NHL draft, these players will also carry a lot of value during their development in junior right up until they play a couple seasons in the NHL.

    Depending on your format, some players will lose prospect eligibility after as few as 82 games - some after 100. We know that not every prospect will be productive in that timeframe, and that the "4th year breakout" is real. Keep your eyes on the waiver-wire for managers that simply lose faith and drop guys who haven't played 240(ish) games. You could up this to players under 400 games if you subscribe to the theory that big/tall players take even longer to breakout.

    Beyond this, you could target these players and see if they'd be available for late picks.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  11. #26
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    ..adding to that previous thought, and again for dynasty leagues with minors/farm systems.

    Don't limit your prospect research to Draft Season, try to make an effort to follow prospect development year-round. A lot of good players will come out of the later rounds of an NHL draft (particularly defencemen/goalies), that may not have been selected in your leagues draft. Identifying these players before anyone else does will not be easy - but this could be as simple as dedicating some time to viewing AHL stats on Elite Prospects and seeing who is leading the league in points, or SV%/wins and seeing if any of these players are available in your leagues.

    League websites like Fantrax also have functions to see how widely held a player is across all leagues. Look at the list of available players in your league, and see if there is an Ownership% column you can sort by - this will tell you what players are being picked up (you may also be able to narrow this list down to "rookies", if your league website gives you the option).

    From there - you could ramp this up in several different ways, all the way up to tracking previous draft classes to seeing which late draft picks are offered contracts, or tracking NHL equivalency numbers for overseas prospects.

    The trick will be to get to these players before anyone else does, they will only fly under the radar for so long. The sad part about all of this effort - is that because these players didn't receive great fanfare in their draft-year, they will not carry much trade value as prospects, but they will if/when they make it onto an NHL roster.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  12. #27
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by HRM Fantasy Fan View Post
    This right here. If you follow this you can almost always compete. I’ll add to it. Take advantage of managers who look at ages and use that to get older players on the cheap. A proven 30ish year old player is way way better than an 18 year old who “will” be amazing in 4 years.
    Happens more than I thought. Few years back a GM in our league decided any player over 29 was too old for his team so guys like wheeler, malkin and Oshie could be had for low level prospects or low picks. The GM who won our league last year and this year beat most of us to the punch and dealt for those types. Worked out well for him, rest of us caught on too late. Too many GMs get scared of a certain age. This is a very opportunistic way to compete and possibly win a pool.
    Call me old one more time.

    - Roy Kent

  13. #28
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    This is a great thread! Thank you for getting it going @jer_33.

    I just finished my 5th year in a points only keeper league. I inherited a bottom dwelling team with the following 18 keepers:
    F: Backstrom, Lucic, Couture, Saad, Ehlers, Kadri, Matthews, Point, Granlund, Dadonov, Palmieri, Marleau
    D: Letang, Suter, Jones, Niskanen, Ekholm, Spurgeon

    My current team is in my signature.

    I fell into a pitfall of over-valuing youth versus production. Yes, it allowed me to collect a pile of young talented players that were not going to produce right away. 5 years in, I'm grateful but its been a painful road. Wasn't the best approach to be competitive quickly. Maybe I'll be competitive for longer at this point but it's been a really challenging journey.

    This year I think I made a big leap by trading the likes of:
    F: K Connor, Boeser, Necas, Palat, R Strome, Hayes, Lindholm
    D: Chychrun, Jones, Hronek

    for

    F: Huberdeau, Scheifele, Pettersson, Kaprizov
    D: Theodore, Rielly
    G: Carter

    Going forward, I don't feel the pressure to make more deals which changes my approach and lessens the angst to get deals done. I'm excited for the greater peace of mind, and can be increasingly patient with prospective deals. Our draft is challenging because the prospects take years to be productive, and dropped players or FAs are the bottom of the barrel options. The first 3 rounds don't often produce winning picks but the middle rounds are where surprise producers can be picked up (i.e. the older less desirable player who is consistent but may have a strong season).

    I'd be interested to see a thread about how to continue to be competitive rather than be forced to rebuild in my future.

    Thanks again for everyone's contributions. Been a great read!
    9 Team Points Only Dynasty - 27 Player Roster (17 Keepers) - 12 F, 6 D, 2 UTL, 2 G, 5 Bench - 2.5G, 2A, 1PP, 2SHG, 1SHA, 3W, 2SO, 1OTL, 0.05SV

    F: J Robertson, Huberdeau, Rantanen, Aho, Kaprizov, Scheifele, Connor, DeBrincat, Cozens, Ehlers, Toffoli, Kopitar, Trocheck, Schmaltz, W Johnston, Teravainen, J Quinn
    D: Dahlin, Werenski, M Rielly, S Jones, McCavoy, Gustafsson
    G: Shesterkin, Bobrovsky

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    A lot of the pitfalls of remaining competitive would carry over from this thread, with more emphasis on auditing your team to make sure you are always building a winner. Draft pick value will determine whether you choose to keep your picks or trade them off for production.

    I've traditionally played in salary-cap dynasty leagues, which tend to have very little trading - so draft picks are your currency, much like the actual NHL.

    In keeper leagues, at least you will have some annual roster turn-over. Managers that aren't competitive in these leagues can't see their mistakes, but they are often on draft day and not winning enough trades. In Keeper leagues a managers job is to concentrate as much talent as possible in your keepers through development or trades, and draft well in your position every year. In a good season you might trade future picks/prospects for a boost come play-off time.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  15. #30
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    My thoughts on a rebuild:

    1. do not look at your roster as players. look at each one as an asset and evaluate as such.
    2. identify your core - players you can build around
    3. research the other teams.
    - who's quick to grab prospects
    - who drops players on cold streaks with big upside
    - who trades a lot & who doesn't
    - have regular conversations about players THEY want to move
    - learn their favourite players/teams
    - know their roster as good as your own - research all of them (a couple years ago i wanted to trade up to grab pettersson, I realized the OGM wanted Brannstrom a month before the draft, I stepped back and got EP without giving up another asset
    4. identify players due for regression (shooting 20+%, Pavelski's, etc) and trade them for assets. picks/prospects/young players.
    5. know that a player 26 or 27 years old should be considered part of your rebuild.
    a. They make you competitive faster
    b. They will still be strong producers in 2-3 years
    6. research -
    7. Know that draft picks - outside of top 5 picks are 2-4 years from real impact performance.
    8. Know when to flip the switch & move futures for help now. There comes a point when your team is on the cusp of competing and you can turn the corner sooner than later by making a 'compete now' move.
    IE: 2nd year of a pool. I drafted real young to build to compete in 2-3 years and then for the next several. Before the start of this season I believed I was closer than originally planned - I traded an injured Tank, Holloway, Ingram, Harley for K. Hayes, Wheeler & Radulov. That one move took me from competing in 2yrs to losing the finals on the last night.

    *to every step listed - DO NOT TRADE FOR TRADING SAKE. Trade with purpose. Trade to complete a piece of your puzzle/your plan.

    12-16 team pool - after 2 years your mentality needs to shift to 'win-now'
    larger pools - 3 years no more before shifting gears.

    Depending on how poorly the team was run before you took over, or bad your initial draft was or bad luck your team had - you need to identify how much you need to tear down. Some only need 3-4 pieces. Others need 15.

    ** Do a team autopsy several times a season. End of season, after NHL draft, after NHL Free Agency, this year - after Krakens draft., before training camp starts, end of camp - before opening night.

    There is never a bad time to review your team.

    Shameless plug: **Buy Dobber's Guide. -- if for no other reason it allows you to find cues and markers to identify players losing stock that you need to be buying (if not outright name players to target).
    - I scooped Weegar in three pools last year off UFA, He hit my own markers to be in for a big bump.
    - I acquired Pavel Zacha in 4 pools based on big-man theory.
    - I traded a 2021 1st on a team I was rebuilding for Bjorkstrand - based on mid-season guide & these forums in three pools.

    I'll repeat - DO NOT TRADE FOR TRADING SAKE - Trade with purpose.
    I'll repeat - know when to throw the switch & move futures to win now.
    Follow me on twitter: @doylelb4

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