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Thread: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

  1. #1
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    Default ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    It feels like every dynasty league I've been in has teams that get stuck in a perpetual rebuild, where they just can't seem to complete a rebuild. There are many mistakes and pitfalls that can be identified and avoided during a rebuild. These teams often end up being abandoned, and risk being eternally bottom-feeders.

    I'll be adding a few of my own posts, but would appreciate if anyone else wished to chime in, or even share a previous post or thread that we can link back to here. Alternately if you have a question you'd like answered, feel free to reply here (or PM me and I'll post the question anonymously).

    I plan to use this thread as a place to organize and link posts, threads and advice for new players (and old players that still play like new players).

    Threads/Posts:

    CHAPTER 1: Teardown Theory

    - Hoard your own picks
    - Don't teardown to barebones
    - See the rebuild through
    - Learn how to perform a team audit
    - Don’t let other managers decide what your team plans are

    CHAPTER 2: Trade Ideas and Warnings

    - Trade for injured star players/keepers
    - Be aware of trade consequences, don't create a super-team
    - Do not get bullied or conned into trades
    - Beware of pick pockets trying to nab your lottery-qualified first rounder
    - Don't fall for the "5 nickels for a quarter" trade
    - If your return on a trade won't help your team within 3 years, you are not getting enough
    - Don't back yourself into a corner with a trade offer, leave at least one piece to be determined by them
    - Determine what draft picks are actually worth in your league
    - You will have to initiate trades, whether you like it or not
    - Trade sweeteners, nice

    CHAPTER 3: The Rebuild

    - Stop looking at age, start looking at production
    - Draft best-available, do not draft by need
    - If your league has IR spots, use them to expand your roster
    - Watch the waiver-wire for managers that give up on prospects
    - Make an effort to follow prospect development year-round
    Last edited by jer_33; June 23, 2021 at 2:44 PM.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    My first bit of advice.

    This would apply to teams that managers have determined have fallen out of contention, and have several productive assets that hold some trade value.

    We will assume here that your league enforces anti-tanking rules, things like draft lotteries, or perhaps by having minimum games played limits - or maybe a minimum salary-cap threshold that must be met. You don't need to cheat, but feel free to push the rules when you can. One thing to try would be to lobby rule changes in the offseason that would benefit a rebuilding team. Maybe lobby to have additional bench spots, or change scoring categories that might create more trading in your league - anything that might make your rebuild shorter.

    Your own draft picks are now your most valuable asset, and absolutely must be hoarded. These picks will be a big part of the rebuild phase, and the lower you sink in the standings, the more valuable these picks will become. Moving your productive players for additional picks and young players will serve two purposes, it will add more future pieces to your rebuilding plans, but also moves your picks further up the draft ladder.

    The main piece of advice I want to share here, is that teams can teardown too much. You really only need to teardown enough to sink into the draft lottery, and can often keep an asset or two that will jumpstart your rebuild. Tearing down to bare-bones only serves to lengthen your rebuild.

    There are sometimes ways to increase the value of your draft picks without a major teardown. Example, in some H2H league set-ups owning the league-worst goalies will rack up the losses for your squad and potentially put you in the draft lottery.

    Feel free to comment, or add your own experiences rebuilding a fantasy team.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Good advice on keeping your draft picks. Also look at potential trades for injured guys to help in rebuild. Especially with contending teams. You may be able to get guys out for the year, fairly cheap.
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    If you're interested in winning, stop looking at ages and start looking at production.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    A couple more pieces of advice for debate.

    Once you've determined that you are going to teardown don’t be a fence-sitter. See it through, nothing league champs love more than middle-of-the-pack teams.

    This one, may be unpopular. If your looking to win your league (and why would you be playing otherwise?), be careful who you are trading with. Trading star players to competitive teams, only strengthens them now and down the road. Will you be able to beat them within your planned rebuild/competitive window? This is more of an issue in deep dynasty leagues, and potentially less in smaller keeper leagues. It also depends on the projected number of productive years you project from the player (veteran vs. prime).

    Any other thoughts?
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    On being careful who you trade with.
    Do not get bullied or conned into trades. Happened a few times in the league I am in(about 8-10yrs ago). We now have a couple rules that have addressed such issues.

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDard View Post
    On being careful who you trade with.
    Do not get bullied or conned into trades. Happened a few times in the league I am in(about 8-10yrs ago). We now have a couple rules that have addressed such issues.
    Yep, lots of good trade lessons out there.

    I find that if a manager is insisting that you make a deal quickly, it’s often because they do not want you offering the player to someone else. Take your time, and if the player in question was not broadly available (on your trade block) perhaps put him on the block to see who else might have interest. Don’t cave to trade pressure.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

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    The Wolverine

    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Good thread. Decided it would be worth a sticky for now to help with future visibility.

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    A couple more trade no-nos.

    During your teardown, managers will try to have you include your picks in the trade. Don't trade your high-end picks, they are looking to steal your lottery ticket in the first round.

    Don't fall for the "5 nickels for a quarter" trade. You'll need high-end upside in any trades for your quality outgoing players, getting back depth players does not make the grade. The math appears to check-out, but when you break down the trade and you try to predict where the depth players will fit into your rebuild plans, you'll easily determine whether it's actually a good trade.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  10. #10
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Here is a good archived article from FHG:

    Trade Fever: Competitive Limbo & Self-Auditing Your Team
    https://fantasyhockeygeek.com/articl...ting-your-team

    A team audit is important, and may be the thing that helps you decide if/when to go for it - and when to teardown.

    Personally, I like to work with spreadsheets and download all active players to determine a tier system. I do this for each active roster position and it really helps me find any weaknesses - and in some cases might give me a trade idea. You can do this using last season's stats, using mid-season stats or using Dobber's projections for the upcoming season (or your own).

    Example:

    League has 20 teams, we rank all active centers in descending order of fantasy points.

    The top 20 would be considered #1 centers in this league and my team should own at least 1, #21-40 would be #2 centers and so on. Centers #11-20 would be considered "below-average" for that top tier, so ideally your player would be in the upper half. You would continue to rank the centers for every active roster slot in your league. You would then move on to rank your wingers, defender, goalies.

    Fantasy points are key here, so while the rank/tier system is a quick way to determine weaknesses - look closely at the tiers as there may be groupings of players within multiple tiers that have very similar point totals. This will be more likely to take place when you have smaller leagues.

    Quick hits:

    - You'll probably notice that the competitive teams have multiple players in the higher tiers, this is what you'll need to aspire to if you want to build a winner.

    - If a player is having a bad year or was recently traded to a new team, look at previous seasons to properly assess their tier. Don't rush to replace the player, unless you are in win-now mode.

    - Rebuilding teams will require you to estimate results using your upside projections for a player, will they be a tier 1 player? If so, when? Use this information to create you championship window projection.

    - trade ideas can be created by looking at players up the rankings who are on rebuilding/non-competitive teams.

    - "below average" players for their tier should still be considered "above average" for the next tier.

    - Salary cap leagues make things even more challenging. You can also tier cap-hits for every active roster slot to determine how to properly allocate salaries.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  11. #11
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Regarding hoarding your own picks, if you have an opportunity to get a highly regarded recent top draftee that should be a big part of your rebuild would you consider including your own lottery pick to acquire them?

    For example including a 2021 lottery pick in a deal for a top 5 draftee from 2019?
    23-24 NHL Schedule
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1242679413
    See number of games, off night games and back to back games for each match up

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by 65jeff View Post
    Regarding hoarding your own picks, if you have an opportunity to get a highly regarded recent top draftee that should be a big part of your rebuild would you consider including your own lottery pick to acquire them?

    For example including a 2021 lottery pick in a deal for a top 5 draftee from 2019?
    Looking at this from the other players perspective, I'm going to guess that they have rostered the 2019 player and he's not producing. They're asking you for a productive player PLUS your lottery pick? Too much IMO. If you like the young player, I would say a 1-for-1 deal could be reasonable - but he's looking for something else and would probably refuse.

    This one falls under the "trying to pick your pocket" rule IMO.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

  13. #13
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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by jer_33 View Post
    This one falls under the "trying to pick your pocket" rule IMO.
    I see your point, though in this case the productive player in the package is on the wrong side of 30 and was never a high end producer. In my league, there is no conceivable circumstance where you're going to acquire a top 5 draftee straight across for this guy. There is also no way I can benefit from the vet's production in my rebuild, I'm too far away.

    The player I'd be acquiring is a lottery pick himself and if he were a 2021 draftee I'd use my lottery pick to draft him before others in the 2021 class based on what we know right now, so I sort of view it as accelerating my rebuild - especially given the 2021 draft is likely to be put off for a year. This is also why the owner wants the extras.
    23-24 NHL Schedule
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1242679413
    See number of games, off night games and back to back games for each match up

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by 65jeff View Post
    I see your point, though in this case the productive player in the package is on the wrong side of 30 and was never a high end producer. In my league, there is no conceivable circumstance where you're going to acquire a top 5 draftee straight across for this guy. There is also no way I can benefit from the vet's production in my rebuild, I'm too far away.

    The player I'd be acquiring is a lottery pick himself and if he were a 2021 draftee I'd use my lottery pick to draft him before others in the 2021 class based on what we know right now, so I sort of view it as accelerating my rebuild - especially given the 2021 draft is likely to be put off for a year. This is also why the owner wants the extras.
    Depends how you look at it.

    For me, the recent top pick and your lottery pick carry similar value - that would be the one-for-one. If he wants another player - at least get some value for that player, perhaps another pick. To me it's not a deal you need to make, but if he wants to remain competitive he needs to upgrade that player sooner than later. I would bet that if this trade is made, he quickly flips that lottery pick for a replacement.

    Maybe take this to the trade board and see what other ideas you might get.
     

    Comish Dynasty 2021-22 (24 Team Roto Dynasty, Custom Salaries)
    Minnesota North Stars, 2nd Tier
    C - Aho, Rakell, Foligno, Trenin (Janmark, Steel, Kurashev)
    LW - Hall, Lucic, Sanford, Bellows (Vesalainen, Foote, Katchouk)
    RW - Seguin, Toffoli, Jaskin, Donskoi (Jarvis)
    D - Sergachev, Edler, Petterson, Forbort, Ceci, Valimaki (H.Fleury, Alexeyev, Salo)
    G - Price, Brossoit (Stolarz)

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    Default Re: ADVICE THREAD: Dynasty/Keeper Rebuild Edition

    The biggest question to ask yourself when making a trade is this:

    When does this trade make my team better?

    If the answer to that question is more than 3 years from now, you are not getting enough in return.

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