Strict Cap League Decisions

[Nights]

League in Sig (UHL). There's 2 important cap management rules to keep in mind (AAV, NHL CAP + 1M):

- Can't drop players in the middle of their NHL contracts without a buyout. Deadline to drop a player with a new contract is shortly before the season starts. (Few exceptions, such as if they are assigned to the AHL).
- Players younger than 26 have a cheaper buyout (cap hit is = 1/6th of their AAV for term remaining * 2. 26 and over is 1/3rd.

Roster as it is today (there's more prospects who don't have NHL aspirations this season, so kept it shortish):


C Petterson, J. Hughes, C. Cizikas
LW Radulov, N. Foligno, Hintz
RW Marner, W. Nylander, Keller
F Zacha, Grant, Motte
D Suter, Butcher, Jokiharju, Hagg, Coburn, Romanov
G Jones, Demko
Bench Frolik, 2 of Grundstrom/Gregor/Stephens/Harkins/Frost/Wahlstrom
Notable Prospects - Bouchard, Byram, Husso

Cap projections: for space the next 4 years: Expecting 82.5m/82.5m/83.5m/85.5m caps

$ 581,173

$ (914,661)

$ (1,121,328)

$ (293,828)

- This assumes 10M deals for Pettersson and Hughes each, but no other extensions (notable - Demko, Jokiharju 2021 offseason, Frost, Zacha in 2022, lots in 2023).

I've accepted that Jones or Suter are on the roster until I pony up a ton of value to get rid of them, bite a buyout bullet, or they get bought-out by their NHL teams/retire. I don't think I do that until Hughes signs whatever deal he's about to sign in 2023. Radulov and Foligno are going to be dropped when their deals are out unless they are very cheap.

END OF CONTEXT

The decisions I have been see-sawing on are for Will Butcher and Clayton Keller

I've considered buying-out Butcher (26 on Jan 6th, 623k until 2024, double that amount if done after that).
Benefit - I clear out about 1.6M (3.74M - 0.6M - 1.5m for an average replacement) this season and next, at the low cost of 0.6M in 2 years which should be fine (I make pessimistic assumptions), plus then I know what the Pettersson, Hughes, Demko extensions look like. Can also realisitcally just eat it this year and deal with it going into next summer and buy him out then, only saving 1M in 2021-22 at the cost of 1.2M in 2022-23.

My issues are... I don't have many D, and there's no guarantee that Bouchard/Byram/Romanov are NHL regulars to stay this coming season. A replacement D will probably come in the 2-3M range and cost me a mid round pick/prospect to acquire. I also don't need the space this coming season (and have cap shenanigans I can do with the farm). He's expensive but he's okay? Wish he's shoot more if anything.

Leaning towards punting the decision to next summer. It'll be more expensive if I get rid of him but I'll know more.

Keller... is tricky. I've explored trade options, and nothing's out there far as I know. He's the 3rd big money scoring winger on my team (Marner, Nylander) but he's not driving nearly as much value as the other two... but he's 22 in going into his 4th year in the league. It comes down to whether he continues to develop and generates Nylander-like value (65p, 200 SOG, 20 PPP type player) for the money or he just...stagnates (it is ARI).

I'm probably holding on, because I know there are more obvious cap-room gains to make (Suter, Jones), and I have enough assets in general that I can use some of those to dump those deals, but I want to wait as long as reasonable to do that (for Jones, I have another goaltender ready to start full-time. For Suter, it's trickier because he's still productive, just expensive and old so at some point the other show will drop.) Alternatively could move Marner/Nylander for value if I need to reallocate cap away from the wings, but I'm a Leafs fan who would rather not if I don't have to.

Just wanted to see if I Was out to lunch on either of these or I'm fine and just overthinking a non-problem.

[Eskimo Brother]

I'll chime in for fun and do my best to be impartial here.

Re Butcher: It depends how you see your window. If you want to be a playoff team and more in the next two years, you're better off without him. However, if you think your window is going to be better in years 3-4, then holding makes more sense. In my opinion you've kicked the can down the road long enough, so I think he's a buyout unless you can trade him to someone for the bare minimum. 600K isn't all that much, and you can replace him with someone that puts up peripherals.

Re Keller: I think you have to keep him based on the upside. Yes he may stagnate, but even then he's still a skilled winger that will put up some decent points, PPPs, and may even start upping his FOW totals. Best case scenario he starts to approach a point per game, and his contract looks solid.

[Nights]

I'll chime in for fun and do my best to be impartial here.

Re Butcher: It depends how you see your window. If you want to be a playoff team and more in the next two years, you're better off without him. However, if you think your window is going to be better in years 3-4, then holding makes more sense. In my opinion you've kicked the can down the road long enough, so I think he's a buyout unless you can trade him to someone for the bare minimum. 600K isn't all that much, and you can replace him with someone that puts up peripherals.

Re Keller: I think you have to keep him based on the upside. Yes he may stagnate, but even then he's still a skilled winger that will put up some decent points, PPPs, and may even start upping his FOW totals. Best case scenario he starts to approach a point per game, and his contract looks solid.

It took me a lot to post here considering how many guys are in that league and pay attention ha!

I don't think I can compete until:
- I sort out goaltending (waiting on Demko to assert himself/bust to decide how I tackle that situation).
- My D starts to take shape (probably this year, most likely next) where Bouchard/Byram/Romanov play meaningful minutes and produce some kind of value.
- Hughes takes a step up, Pettersson gets face-offs, and a lot of my on-the-cusp players play meaningful roles.

I think that's a 2022-23 target, possible further before I compete with the big-teams in the league as I wait for their aging cores to start to slow down. I think a 3-5 year target is the best window.

[stevegamer]

I agree with EB.

Buying out Butcher makes sense. You can find a guy who scores less but grits more relatively cheaply. You also might be able to deal Butcher for that guy. I'd look into a deal.

I will also say that I expect Romanov to be in the NHL full-time.

Keller I'd keep. He's not close to 26, and he's skilled. The contract is just okay right now, but it will improve if he improves or the cap goes up, or both.

[Eskimo Brother]

I will also say that I expect Romanov to be in the NHL full-time.

I'll nitpick and say that I disagree on Romanov making an impact this year above all of the other NHL D on their roster. Not based on talent, just too tough with the lack of opportunity available.