My yearly "What would you do' thread

[lusshouse]

Hi all,

If you don't like to read long introductions, feel free to skip ahead.

Keeper league. 14 teams. Points only. We use salaries, not cap hit, so it fluctuates every year. We start weekly 3C, LW, RW and 6D and 2G.

So yeah, goalies are often tough to get by.

I was a top team for many years (approx 8 seasons in the money) until my core of Toews, Ovechkin, Burns, Pietrangelo, Crawford and Rinne grew old and/or cost me too much. I probably got unlucky, probably didn't draft well enough. I've been a middle of the pack team for 2 years, and now a bottom team for 2 more.

The top team is MILES ahead of everybody, so there's no catchup for me. There's no way I can draft enough points to beat him. 2nd-3rd-4th are within reach, but since most salaries go down this year (players expected a work stoppage?), absolutely no teams except one or two have salary cap issues.

I think I'm firmly set in the 'let's ship some of our older guys out' strategy and try to solidify my core.


As you can see in my signature (or so will I double-check once I post this), here's the team :

C - Couturier, Dubois, Trocheck
LW - Ovechkin, Konecny, Marchesseault
RW - Wheeler, Voracek, Kakko

Bench : Donato, Kase, Kahun, Sikura, Borgstrom, Terry

D - Burns, Gostisbehere, Muzzin, Brannstrom, Grzelcyk, Sanheim

Bench : Liljegren, Rosen

G - Markstrom, Ullmark

Bench : Petersen, Montembeault, Primeau, Gustafsson


We have to respect Cap +10%, and own between 24 and 30 contracts. So, I have as many draft rounds as I have empty spaces under 30.


Last year, I had only 2G (Marks and Ullmark) and drafted a TON of darts hoping to hit. Now that I hit on Petersen and Primeau's potential, I'll drop Montembault and Gustafsson who are roster spot wastes.

Last year, I had 5th overall and thought I'd get Quinn Hughes. Picks went Makar, Hughes, Hughes, Binnington. So I picked Kakko. Thing is, it's been two years that I've skipped getting a solid D, and my last crop hasn't harvested quality (Brannstrom + Liljegren).


WHO TO TRADE AWAY

I think there might be interest for vets who have strangely structured contracts like Blake Wheeler (6.5M this year).
I'd be surprised if Ovechkin drew some kind of interest at 10M.
Burns had very little value last year, and I think it'd be sell low. Also, I'm too thin on D.
I also wonder what kind of contract Couturier will get -- he's also a great contract who could gain me some solid return I believe.


WHO TO DROP

Those who'll join Gustafsson and Montembeault will be Rosen, Sikura, Borgstrom and Muzzin (way too overpaid). That's 6 drops for anywhere between 1 and 7 draft picks.

I'll consider dropping Kase if I can't move a vet for a draft pick.


WHO TO DRAFT

With the 6th overall pick this year, here are my options :

G : Sorokin or Lehner. I think though that I feel comfortable with Markstrom and Petersen as my tandem for the next few seasons.
There's always Kahkonen that can be had in the 2nd round. But goalies are a hot commodity in our league, he might be gone too by then.

D : Karlsson... Doughty? Not a fan of the highly priced vets that have been dropped last year.
Other vets available for later rounds : Walker, Schmidt, Brodin, Orlov, Gavrikov, Lindholm...
In terms of long-term solutions, I guess Drysdale is my best bet, but he's probably a few years away.
The in-between solutions include Marino, Soderstrom, Perunovich, Romanov and Thomson. It feels like none of them scream SIXTH OVERALL to me, and at least one of them will make it to the second round.

F : Tatar or Pacioretty would be a pick if I wanted to fight for this year. Ryan Strome, Kubalik and Rust are also fall back options.
There's also Toffoli that was mentioned as a 'buy' for salary cap leagues. And Zucker.
In other words, there's enough for everybody.

For prospects, I'd be happy to pair Terry with Trevor Zagras.
I'd be surprised if Lafrenière or Kaprizov made it to 6th, but hey, I got Kakko last year at 5th.
I guess Byfield and Rossi would round out my top-5 of Grade-A forward prospects.
There's a bunch of Grade-B guys available : Turcotte, Krebs, Tomasino, Nick Robertson, McMichael, Denisenko, Perfetti...



SO, WHAT EXACTLY IS THE QUESTION, LUSSHOUSE?


1. Would you consider trading Sean Couturier to gain an early pick, considering the talent pool you see there?
2. Would you consider trading Blake Wheeler considering his age, salary rising next year, and depth you see there?
3. Considering my thin depth at D, are there any D-names out there that are worth gambling against a Zagras or Rossi?
4. How would you rate the B-guys I mentioned, hoping one would make it to the 3rd round?
5. How high are you on Toffoli, Pacioretty, Tatar, Zucker...



Really, I don't have a question. I love discussion and exchanging with people who interact with me here.

Big thanks to all who will do so.

PS : Last year I followed the advice to go for it and force Ovechkin (which I had traded away 3 or 4 years ago) and Voracek, missing on Batherson and Bertuzzi. Not doing it again.

[stevegamer]

I agree with those 6 drops.

I'd consider dealing Voracek & Wheeler right now to try and gain picks, or a youngish D that may break out.
I don't think I'd deal Couturier right now, as he's got a good contract for you that isn't up this year. He will still have value.
For you Defense depth, I like Marino & maybe Perunovich, but I also like this (admittedly expensive) Erik Karlsson guy. I wouldn't try drafting a rookie D, and I don't think Romanov is a points guy for you.

Prospects:
I'm not sure I agree that Perfetti is a grade-B guy.
As a sneakier later pick, I like Jan Jenik.
Is Ukko-Pekko Luukonen taken? He & Ullmark should cover the Sabres crease.

[Dr.Brad]

Geez, long post. Fairly quick answers to the 5 questions:

1) No. Or, Hell no.
2). Yes. This will be Wheeler’s last quality year. Get someone younger and smile like Cheshire cat.
3). There’s enough D’s to take one later - after the first 62 (basically 2 per team?) there’s still quality out there. ? Subban comeback? Dobson? Elder, Martinez, Lindell..... Did you say what categories your league has?
4). I’d grab Tomasino in 4th or 5th round. Nick Robertson will be more popular just cuz he plays for Toronto.
5). I JUST took Zucker in a draft tonight. Slipped beyond where he should have. I feel his upside for this year is worth a mid-round.

[stevegamer]

His league is points only.

[Axeman33]

Couturier is one of the best contracts in the league for what he brings to the table. Would I trade him? Sure, but only if the offer is something I cant refuse. He's one of the few chips you should/could cash in on.

I'd put Wheeler and Vorachek out there to see what you can get. If you are falling down the hill, might as well pull the pin and see what you can get to start turning the tide back in the other direction.

As far as D go, Marino and Perunovich are definitely guys that I would be interested in, but I wouldnt reach for other guy. In other words, they aren't 1st round talents to me.

As far as your B-level guys go, I'd probably rank them Perfetti, Robertson, Turcotte, Denisenko, McMichael, Tomasino, Krebs. Most of these kids are pretty close so I'd be happy with any of them as future assets.

I like Pacioretty but not as much in a cap league. His actual salary this year is $7M but it does drop to $5.25M for the last two years of his deal, so that's not too bad if you can handle this year. Toffoli has a nice salary this year, but it jumps for year 2 and 3 and then back down again for year four. Zucker at $4.8M this year looks good but it jumps next year almost $1.5M on top of that before down a bit for the last year. Tatar at only $3.2M is probably the best bang for the buck, but he's only got this year left. Maybe that's not a bad thing LOL!

[Luffy D Monkey]

I feel like you need to decide if you're rebuilding or really competing for 2nd/3rd. It wasn't clear to me from your post if you've committed to one of these paths, but it will inform your choices going forward, and I think it's important to have a cohesive plan.

1. If rebuilding, shop Couturier now. Next year, GMs in your league will know that you have to move him in his final contract year and may offer worse returns. If you can't get an acceptable offer, you have time.

2. Yes trade Wheeler for a decent return if you can. I think he will drop off sometime in the next 3 years.

3. Marino jumped out for me.

4. Nick Robertson jumps out for me.

5. I rank them Zucker, Pacioretty, Tatar, Toffoli. They're all good supporting options but none of them have much "wow" factor.

[Pengwin7]

Way too much in the OP to attend to.
Kudos to those that have.

The "Big Picture" I get out of this is that there is a 1st place team that is WAY beyond everybody else.
This sucks. It really, really, REALLY sucks.
I hate when leagues have one juggernaut emerge.

I AM very glad that you (OP) recognize this.
Because it means you should aim for a long, strategic build.

A regular "rebuild" is 2-3 years.
If there is a juggernaut in the league that is WAY beyond others... you need to wait it out for maybe 4-5 years.
So... start thinking about where all your current players are 4-5 years from now.

A guy like Blake Wheeler... who is 34 now... will be 38-39.
Effin move him NOW. This season.
He'll only get worse.
Ovechkin & Burns too.

These elder players (age 32+)... with families especially... may have been super cautious over last 5-6 months.
I actually expect a LOT of them to decline BAD in the current season.
When you have mental stuff clogging your brain, like protecting yourself and your family, you aren't focused on your hockey game on a daily basis.
I remember the elders declining hard after past NHL lockouts.
I think it'll happen this year too.
If a guy like Wheeler or Ovechkin looks bad this season... your opportunity to move them is OVER. You missed it.
Personally... I'd try to trade them before they step on ice for a game again.


Basically, most hockey players peak in their age 25-30 years.
So you should try to shape your ENTIRE roster to be players between the ages of 20-25.
Then... in 5 years you'll be good to go.

Assuming your leaguemates don't keep feeding this juggernaut their good players...
Eventually his team will get old.
(Also - over this 4-5 years... don't forget to remind EVERY.OTHER.GM to NOT feed that #1 guy any good players. GMs need to let that team age and fall. PERIOD. IMPORTANT.)


There are way too many individual players to touch on.
But I did note that you want a good D.
When I started rebuilding in a recent league, it included adding Moritz Seider and Bowen Byram last year.
Those are two of the best future multi-cat players in the league.
I also think Thomas Harley (DAL) is going to be a solid under the radar player... but he's a bit roadblocked in DAL.

So... try to get Seider & Byram... if this is multi-cat.
Either by trade... or if you can... by straight drafting & holding them.
Also - if your team sucks and tanks... that's fine too.
Their are some awesome young defensemen coming in future drafts, including Owen Power in next year's (2021) draft - you'll want him.


Good luck.
Come back and bump this thread every year.
I'm always curious how these sort of leagues/team builds shape up and turn out!

(Pengwin7 Bookmark)

[lusshouse]

For you Defense depth, I like Marino & maybe Perunovich, but I also like this (admittedly expensive) Erik Karlsson guy.

Prospects:
I'm not sure I agree that Perfetti is a grade-B guy.

Is Ukko-Pekko Luukonen taken? He & Ullmark should cover the Sabres crease.

So you'd go Marino or Perunovich 6th overall? It's a path I'm considering due to positional need. But it feels like I shouldn't pass over some of these talented prospect forwards.

Perfetti is a A-grade to you, then?

He's taken, yes.

[lusshouse]

Geez, long post. Fairly quick answers to the 5 questions:

3). There’s enough D’s to take one later - after the first 62 (basically 2 per team?) there’s still quality out there. ? Subban comeback? Dobson? Elder, Martinez, Lindell..... Did you say what categories your league has?

4). I’d grab Tomasino in 4th or 5th round. Nick Robertson will be more popular just cuz he plays for Toronto.

We're Montreal-based, so there's no Leafs bias. If there's a bias, it'd be in favor of a guy like Romanov or Toffoli.

All these D are already taken. We're rostering 6 D, we mostly all have 1 to 4 benches. It's points only.

Maybe Lindell is available, actually. But IIRC, he's paid dearly for his all-around game, and just not worth in points-only cap leagues.

[lusshouse]

As far as your B-level guys go, I'd probably rank them Perfetti, Robertson, Turcotte, Denisenko, McMichael, Tomasino, Krebs. Most of these kids are pretty close so I'd be happy with any of them as future assets.

That's pretty much my rankings. Great minds think alike!

[lusshouse]

5. I rank them Zucker, Pacioretty, Tatar, Toffoli. They're all good supporting options but none of them have much "wow" factor.

I don't remember who wrote this week (was it Dobber Monday?) that Toffoli could be in line for a big payoff if he indeed gets L1 PP1 duties, and Suzuki keeps improving.

I mean, it *did* happen in the past 10 years that a random L1 in Montreal performs to 70-80 points.

[lusshouse]

The "Big Picture" I get out of this is that there is a 1st place team that is WAY beyond everybody else.

When I started rebuilding in a recent league, it included adding Moritz Seider and Bowen Byram last year.

I also think Thomas Harley (DAL) is going to be a solid under the radar player... but he's a bit roadblocked in DAL.

Good luck.
Come back and bump this thread every year.
I'm always curious how these sort of leagues/team builds shape up and turn out!

(Pengwin7 Bookmark)

Always an honor to get such an in-depth reply from Pengwin7!

Again, I write a lot so people who are interested get the big picture, but yeah, a guy's been at the top for way too long, and despite my effort to convince people not to trade with him, people do. Because he offers what people needs, and he gets what he needs. Every. Year.

He's already sent me a text of an analysis of why I should be trading for his Roman Josi. Which I will not, because I'm not giving him my assets. But someone else will. He did it with Dubnyk last year, and with Severson, and... you get it.

He's at the top because he went all-in on Tampa. He drafted Kucherov when he had just signed his ELC and was still a Grade-A prospect who hadn't proven anything. He drafted Vasilievsky in the same way. He's got Point after his rookie season. And the last time he finished at the bottom, he got first overall pick and picked MacKinnon. Someone gave up Hart for his established vet to 'win now'. Oh, and he was stuck with DeAngelo's salary problems last year until... he resigned for under 1K. Right there, these have been his core on incredibly team-friendly contract. He has them all.

I can bring it back up next year.

Here's last year's threat, by the way : https://forums.dobbersports.com/show...pert-questions
I ended up picking Kakko (5th), Ovechkin (19th), Voracek (3rd), Rosen (4th), Petersen (5th), Montembeault (6th), Primeau (7th).
At that moment, Rosen hadn't been cut by the Avs and was making a strong impression at the camp... As I said, I missed on Merzlikins in the third round and on Korpisalo in the fifth round, so I went with multiple players.


Byram, Seider AND Harley have been drafted last year.
And it's points only.
From the 2019 draft, the best options are Lasse Thomson (OTT) and Victor Soderstrom (ARI).

Another name who has signed his ELC this Spring/Summer/Fall : K'André Miller. He's a bit lower on my list as it looks like a logjam of D prospects with upside in NYR.


I guess after reading your comments, I'll go 6th overall : Lafrenière/Kaprizov/Byfield/Rossi/Zegras in that order. If none make it to me, I'll go with Sorokin and see if I can sell high on Markstrom or Ullstrom. But I know my league, somebody will trade up for Sorokin in the top-5, it happend with Binnington (went 4th overall) last year and Shesterkin went 6th.

I'll go with a D in the 2nd round, hoping Marino makes it (he probably won't) or Perunovich (he probably won't) or Soderstrom.
If not, I'll just skip D, assume I'm tanking, and pick another solid 18-y-old. I see a guy like Perfetti making it to the 2nd round, or even Robertson. And I'll pick a hail mary or three like I did with goalies and pray one of them turns out good.

[lusshouse]

So here's an update.

Draft night is next Friday night.


Just shipped Wheeler for Tarasenko to a contending team who can't afford to keep Tarasenko on the bench for half a season.

Just shipped Voracek for a third in September 2021.

There's 0 interest for Burns or Ovechkin for the moment.


The first place team -- the only one with cap issues this year -- wanted to move Josi for prospects, but then Kucherov's news hit and he finally had to make a call. So he moved Kucherov, Kadri and his own 1st pick for Farabee, Dvorak and 2 2nd round picks. He didn't even contact me after I told him I was not helping him out of his hole


With Stuetzle signing, here's my ranking for my 6th overall pick : Lafrenière (LW), Stuetzle (C-LW), Kaprizov (RW-LW), Byfield (C), Rossi (C), Zegras (C).
I think all these guys are worth more than Sorokin in my position.


I'll then have 20th overall and 34th and here are 16 under-25 names I have identified and hope will make it back to me :
D - Drysdale, Perunovich, Soderstrom, K'A Miller, Romanov, Marino, Addison, Walker (LA)
F - Kaliyev (RW-LW), Krebs (C-LW), Perfetti (C-LW), Kubalik (RW-LW), Denisenko (LW), Robertson (LW), McMichael (C), Turcotte (C)
At least one will for sure, but some people will jump on G (Lehner is available + Sorokin) and more proven D and F.


If there are vets (like previously mentionned, such as Tatar, Zucker, Toffoli, etc.) I'll see if some make it to the third round, otherwise I'll snag some average vets just to fill out my roster.


Thanks for those who keep reading!

[stevegamer]

So you'd go Marino or Perunovich 6th overall? It's a path I'm considering due to positional need. But it feels like I shouldn't pass over some of these talented prospect forwards.

Perfetti is a A-grade to you, then?

He's taken, yes.

I wouldn't take either of those guys in round 1, I'd go forward. I think Perfetti is a B+/A- tweener kind of guy, if I had to grade him.

[lusshouse]

So after swapping Wheeler for Tarasenko
And Voracek for a 3rd in 2021.

I dealt Ovechkin + 5th this year for Niku + 2nd next year.

And I dealt Sanheim + 4th this year for Nurse, Arvidsson, DeBrusk + 3rd to the first place team who had salary cap issues. He mostly got Sanheim for Nurse, saved 2M and gave me the two guys he couldn't afford and others refused to pay up for.


Also let Trocheck go -- I won't win next year, and I won't keep him next year at 7.5M unless he plays like a 1C which is unlikely to happen.

Set up myself to have enough to get a Doughty or a Subban that others will likely drop due to salary cap issues.