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Thread: Prospect Question

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    Default Prospect Question

    I'm picking 4th overall in our keeper league, we're a keep 4 + rookie carry-over.

    Pretty well Lafreniere will go 1st overall, I expect based on talking to another gm who picks @ 2 that he'd likely take Stutzle over Byfield, but @ 4 I'll basically have a pick of Stutzle, Byfield or Rossi whoever happens to be available, even Raymond. I'm skeptical with Detroit prospects given Zadina in past and I drafted him in 1st round mistakenly then he didn't make the team, LA similarly takes their time with prospects.

    I am also picking 11th in the first round, then my next pick is in the 3rd round.

    Given my scoring, is there a pecking order after Lafreniere in terms of who you'd potentially target as a rookie if available?

    Rossi was drafted @ 9, and usually a couple high picks always go in Top 5, but If say he has similar upside to Byfield/Stutzle, and I could get him later in the draft just due to him not being a Top 5 pick, would he be worth grabbing, or is there a guy @ 4 that if available I shouldn't pass on?

    I'm just trying to weigh grabbing a proven guy vs a rookie type early as this past draft was super strong and I could get a building block forward out of it that would be awesome, as in there could be a lot more franchise type players from this draft.

    I just wouldn't want to spend a 4th overall on say a Byfield or Stutzle if Rossi projects similar and I could get much later as a hidden gem.

    Thoughts?

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    I finished 4th this past season, so last money spot just lucked out acquiring a first that ended up being high, and ideally I'd rather grab a proven guy @ 4 but if rookie stud falls into my lap would be hard to pass up, as it is a keeper league.

    Our rookie spot works like IR, you can activate rookie whenever, just have to have room.

    And you can carry a rookie over as long as they're still rookie status, so for instance a rookie that burns rookie status first year, only have option to carry over once, Shesterkin for instance if I made him my rookie I could potentially carry him over 2x. After you carry them over, after that next season you can sign them to max 2 years as long as you are @ 4 contracts still. You can also add/drop a rookie whenever you want while the season is going on, you aren't stuck with a rookie if you don't end up wanting to hang onto them. You can also decide not to carry a rookie over, it's just a nice option to have.
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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    So you're afraid to draft someone like Raymond because Zadina didn't make the roster his first year? I hate to tell you this but MOST rookies dont make the roster their first year and even if they do, they rarely perform up to expectations. Either way, it's really hard to tell you who to draft if we don't know who's going to be available outside of this years drafted players. With no FOW, I dont think I'd go with Rossi with your first pick, if you are looking at prospects from this years draft. The only guy I am certain that is going to play this year in the NHL is Lafreniere. Others have a good shot, but I dont buy into it until I see them past nine games still playing. Not saying I dont like Rossi, but I do like others more.

    If it's me, and Byfield is still there at 4, he's my guy and worth holding as your rookie holdover next year even if he doesn't make LA this year. I think, outside of Lafreniere, he's the best player in this draft easily.
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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    to me Rossi was always #4 but as Axe said if you like Raymond more, fact that Zadina is not on Detroit full time yet shoudl not change anything.

    But if you are looking for player with best chance to play in NHL outside of Laf and maybe Stutzle, i think thats Rossi.

    Raymond has not even signed the deal yet. Same for Holtz, which leads me to believe both Swedes are staying in Sweden this year.

    Some also think Perfetti has a chance to crack Winnipeg roster but im not so sure about that.
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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    If playing this year is important to you, go with Rossi assuming that Laffy, Byfield, and Stutzle are gone.

    Long term, I go Raymond over Rossi without hesitation.
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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    I just meant would Stutzle or Byfield be worth targeting @4 or is there not enough difference with the Raymond/Rossi types where you’d maybe grab one of them late in the draft instead? I know one of you mentioned Byfield is my guy if he’s there, but I didn’t hear any Stutzle talk. The gm that said he’d lean Stutzle could easily go Byfield and just be swerving, but when I just think Stutzle, Rossi and Byfield all have good chances to be in the nhl this year: Ottawa and Minnesota based on team need, and with La I’m basing it more on Byfield being physically ready, I know he might take a bit longer to develop due to his size, but he’s still a rare type talent. Also meant to ask about where Kaprisov falls into that mix should he go back into the draft? No guarantees he’ll go back into the draft but the team that stashed him doesn’t have room for him at the moment.

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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    So you're afraid to draft someone like Raymond because Zadina didn't make the roster his first year? I hate to tell you this but MOST rookies dont make the roster their first year and even if they do, they rarely perform up to expectations. Either way, it's really hard to tell you who to draft if we don't know who's going to be available outside of this years drafted players. With no FOW, I dont think I'd go with Rossi with your first pick, if you are looking at prospects from this years draft. The only guy I am certain that is going to play this year in the NHL is Lafreniere. Others have a good shot, but I dont buy into it until I see them past nine games still playing. Not saying I dont like Rossi, but I do like others more.

    If it's me, and Byfield is still there at 4, he's my guy and worth holding as your rookie holdover next year even if he doesn't make LA this year. I think, outside of Lafreniere, he's the best player in this draft easily.
    I think this is a very good point. Very often in the offseason, and near the draft, "NHL ready" are super common. However, it's pretty much a lottery who makes the NHL full time outside of the 1st overall being guaranteed to make it. Every year there's a surprise, but usually it's not on anyone's radars.

    I will say, 2nd overall is almost always a lock as well. In the last ten drafts, only Ryan Murray and Sam Reinhart didn't stick in the NHL. So I would bet pretty heavily that Byfield is in the NHL next season. It's not guaranteed, but I'd say history shows us its nearly guaranteed.
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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    Quote Originally Posted by theIceWookie View Post
    I think this is a very good point. Very often in the offseason, and near the draft, "NHL ready" are super common. However, it's pretty much a lottery who makes the NHL full time outside of the 1st overall being guaranteed to make it. Every year there's a surprise, but usually it's not on anyone's radars.

    I will say, 2nd overall is almost always a lock as well. In the last ten drafts, only Ryan Murray and Sam Reinhart didn't stick in the NHL. So I would bet pretty heavily that Byfield is in the NHL next season. It's not guaranteed, but I'd say history shows us its nearly guaranteed.
    I just mean if I could get one of Byfield, Stutzle or Kaprisov at 4 would that be worth it? I know depends what is available, but it is a keeper league plus I rarely pick Top 5 and this was a stronger than usual draft. If there is a gap from the top few guys to the next guy, then I’d happily wait till later in the draft if someone like Byfield, Stutzle or Kaprisov isn’t available at 4, but I suspect based on a couple convos I’ve had that most likely one of Byfield or Stutzle will be there.

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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    Quote Originally Posted by LeafsFan1967 View Post
    I just mean if I could get one of Byfield, Stutzle or Kaprisov at 4 would that be worth it? I know depends what is available, but it is a keeper league plus I rarely pick Top 5 and this was a stronger than usual draft. If there is a gap from the top few guys to the next guy, then I’d happily wait till later in the draft if someone like Byfield, Stutzle or Kaprisov isn’t available at 4, but I suspect based on a couple convos I’ve had that most likely one of Byfield or Stutzle will be there.
    This is a brand new name to throw into the mix.

    Out of Byfield, Laf, Stutzle, Kaprisov - you take the one that falls to you. It will only be one of the 4. It should be a pretty clear top 4.

    I know you don't like to wait on prospects.
    Raymond (imo) has a higher ceiling than Kaprisov, but he won't give KK a run for 3-4 years.
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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    This is a brand new name to throw into the mix.

    Out of Byfield, Laf, Stutzle, Kaprisov - you take the one that falls to you. It will only be one of the 4. It should be a pretty clear top 4.

    I know you don't like to wait on prospects.
    Raymond (imo) has a higher ceiling than Kaprisov, but he won't give KK a run for 3-4 years.
    I don’t mind waiting, I just wouldn’t draft a higher ceiling Raymond over Kaprisov if Kaprisov happened to be available because my team is competitive now, I want a blue chipper but I’d only consider a Raymond/Rossi type if the other options were gone, and I’d wait till later. How do you compare Raymond vs Rossi, and are they the next 2 best guys after the other 4 I mentioned? My hope is 1 of Stutzle, Byfield or Kaprisov will be available when I pick. I just have to see first what my brother is doing with Kaprisov, because he has no room atm.

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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    Raymond > Rossi IMO. The guy has some real chops. Rossi is going to be good, but pass first & you weigh G's pretty heavily.
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    Default Re: Prospect Question

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    Raymond > Rossi IMO. The guy has some real chops. Rossi is going to be good, but pass first & you weigh G's pretty heavily.
    And thoughts on Stutzle vs Byfield in my format?

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