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Thread: Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

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    Default Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

    So I've had Giroux in one of my keeper leagues for a few years now, and held him through his so called downward trajectory (the 58 point season) all the way until now--as I'm debating of moving on from him.

    He's coming off a fairly bad season by his standards (53 points in 69 games, or a 63 point pace). The prior seasons he posted point totals of 85 in 2018-19, and 102 in 2017-18.

    Giroux is going to turn 33 come January, and it's fairly reasonable to assume at his age that his best years are likely behind him. However, he has shown in the past his ability to come back from the "dead" after many had written him off following his porous 2016-17 season (58 points in 82 games) to post 102 points and finish second in league scoring in 2017-18. He's obviously a few years older now, so a duplicated bounce back season much like 2017-18 year is highly unlikely. Despite his soon to be 33 year old body, is there still a possibility he bounces back to a near point per game like the good old days?

    Last season Giroux shot an overall 10.7%, with 21 goals on 197 shots in 69 games. This is in line with his career shooting percentage of 11.1%, so nothing was overly unlucky about that (after all, he's only scored above 30 goals once in his career when he sported an unsustainable 17.6 shooting percentage). His 5 on 5 shooting percentage was 8.1%, quite lower than it had been the past two seasons, but nothing completely out of line with his career norm.

    His shot rate the past two seasons have actually been much higher than his uncanny 102 point season, with 2.85 shots per game last season, 2.79 the year before, and it was only 2.35 when he had his career year. If he maintains the shot rate from the past two seasons, he's a safe bet for 20-25 goals, and would likely need a lot of luck (as he had in the 17/18 year) to surpass 30.

    Giroux's offensive zone starts also fell massively last year from the year prior. He started only 43.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone, down over 8% from the year prior (52.35%). Even though he was able to put up 102 points while starting only 44% of his starts in the offensive zone back in 2017-18, it's still a far from ideal situation for a 33 year old Center to be thrusted into a more defensive role (though he'll see a lot of time on the wing--where he's better suited for production).

    Along with the diminishing O-zone starts also came the diminishing ice time, as he only averaged 18:59 TOI last year, down over a full two minutes from the year prior (21:27 TOI). This is what we call the Alain Vigneault effect. Needless to say, this is concerning for his fantasy production moving forward (along with the rising age of course). These two coaching changes clearly hampered Giroux's offensive production last season. Of more concern is the fact that his Points per 60 dropped by 0.5 (2.9 to 2.4 last year), so the drop in ice time wasn't the only reason for his drop in production--he simply wasn't as effective. In fact, he's PTS/60 have regressed in consecutive years now (unsurprisingly, as his 102 point season resulted in a 3.7 PTS/60).

    Nolan Patrick's health might also be a factor for Giroux. If he's healthy, Giroux likely moves to the wing on a line with Couturier and Konecny, as Philly can run Couturier/Hayes/Patrick down the middle. Overall, Giroux's been much more productive on the wing, even though he's best classified as a C/W hybrid for the past few seasons.

    Giroux's IPP, zone entries, and assist rates also all took a big hit last season. His overall IPP was down to 63.9 from 69.7 the year prior, indicating that regression might have already started to take its' course. The only time he had a lower IPP was his miserable 2016-17 season, when it was 60.4. Konecny actually lead the team in IPP, with an 80.3 rate--suggesting that Philly's offensive torch might be passed on sooner than later (if it hasn't already)

    Moreover, Giroux only ranked in the 79th percentile when it came to shot assists, which is still quite good in comparison to the average player, but a far cry from the typically elite Giroux. He's been in the 95th percentile or better in the previous 3 seasons (including his bad 2016-17 season). This stat in particular is reason enough to think that a bounce back might not be in the cards. It's only one season, but nonetheless it is enough evidence to leave some of us unsettled with his future trajectory, largely based on the merit that his best asset is his playmaking.

    Finally, Giroux's zone entries came crashing down like Atlanta's 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. He ranked in the 43rd percentile in zone entries per 60, and in the 41st percentile in percentage efficiency--a far cry from his previous 3 year average of 77th and 70th percentile, respectively. Clearly, he drove play much less last season than he did prior seasons, which once again is another negative sign for his outlook next season.

    He was still an effective player at 5 on 5 (especially relative to his team), although being on the ice often with Couturier and Konecny definitely helped him a lot. What's most impressive is likely how strong his teams shot share was with him on the ice, considering he started nearly 56% of his starts in the defensive zone. A quick note: Giroux's individual expected goals for was still 9.7 (it was 9.9 in each of the previous seasons), and his expected goals for percentage when he was on the ice was 54.22%, though again his line-mates who were elite analytical players helped (Konecny and Couturier). Regardless, there's still something there. Even though most of his stats and production declined, we can't possibly write him off until we see another bad year back to back.

    I do think Giroux is better than what we saw last year, but I don't think he's the same player he was in the previous two seasons. There's a lot of mixed results from this past season (and I didn't even include his porous playoffs, although most of Philly's top guns were unable to get the job done). I would never count him out, given what he's shown in the past, but there is definitely reason to be wary of him going forward. It's probably safest to assume a 65 point pace, with potential for more, simply because he is Claude Giroux after all--a proven and elite scorer for a decade now. However, expectations of a massive bounce back are unlikely and should be tempered. Sadly, every player has an expiration date, and his days are numbered at this point.

    How do you guys feel about Giroux for this upcoming season and beyond?
    C: MacKinnon, Eriksson Ek, Schmaltz, Bennett, Vilardi
    W: Forsberg, Buchnevich, Kucherov, Keller, M Tkachuk, Tippett, Vatrano, Tolvanen, Drouin,
    D: Carlson, Theodore, Pietrangelo, Chychrun, Hanifin, Durzi, Ekholm, Martinez
    G: Skinner, Talbot, Kochetkov, Rittich

    Minors: Geekie, Mateychuk, Knight, Portillo

    Categories:
    Goals & Assists = 1 point each
    SOG, Hits, Blks = 0.1 each
    PPP = 0.5
    +/- = 0.25

    Goalie Categories: SV = 0.1, W = 2, SO = 3, L = -2, GA = -0.5

    Start 4C, 8W, 6D, 2G
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    Default Re: Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

    I really don't know what to think. I do like Philly as a whole and Giroux isn't washed up yet....last season was bad but I could see a ppg pace this year

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    Default Re: Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

    Quote Originally Posted by HonkyTonkMan View Post
    I really don't know what to think. I do like Philly as a whole and Giroux isn't washed up yet....last season was bad but I could see a ppg pace this year
    I'm in the same boat as you. Even after looking through him thoroughly, I still struggle to see what Giroux we get next season.
    C: MacKinnon, Eriksson Ek, Schmaltz, Bennett, Vilardi
    W: Forsberg, Buchnevich, Kucherov, Keller, M Tkachuk, Tippett, Vatrano, Tolvanen, Drouin,
    D: Carlson, Theodore, Pietrangelo, Chychrun, Hanifin, Durzi, Ekholm, Martinez
    G: Skinner, Talbot, Kochetkov, Rittich

    Minors: Geekie, Mateychuk, Knight, Portillo

    Categories:
    Goals & Assists = 1 point each
    SOG, Hits, Blks = 0.1 each
    PPP = 0.5
    +/- = 0.25

    Goalie Categories: SV = 0.1, W = 2, SO = 3, L = -2, GA = -0.5

    Start 4C, 8W, 6D, 2G
    12 Player Keeper - 15 Teams

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    Default Re: Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

    Seeing that title felt like some kind of de'ja'vu! Charlie O'Connor did a solid article on Giroux's past season(s) on The Athletic recently https://theathletic.com/2197843/2020...h_query=giroux

    Some of the key points were;

    -Prior to the 58 point season he had hip and hernia surgery. Likely explains the drop in production.
    -The following season was his first recent season on the wing, with a very responsible C, and he set a career high.
    -This past season he spent a large amount of time at C to cover for Patrick. He isn't as effective in that role anymore and that hurt the stats.
    -He was experimented with as the RW option on the PP and he's also not nearly as effective there as he is on the LW. I personally believe a bigger issue with the PP chemistry/production, was due to losing Simmonds and using Provorov over Ghost. Now, Ghost hasn't proven to be deserving of that spot the past 2 years but it has altered the strategies and chemistry quite a bit.
    -Despite having 5v5 time with Coots in the playoffs and the LW spot on the PP he still struggled. Too be fair, the team as a whole struggled aside from Hart and some stretches from Vorachek and Hayes to name a few.
    -The most effective way to utilize him in the coming season is with Coots and on the LW side of the PP

    The effects of age are definitely starting to creep in. He can no longer be the primary driver on a productive line but he certainly does have the smarts and skill to be more than just a complementary player. If Patrick, or Frost, is able to play 3C this year I wouldn't be surprised to see Giroux score 75ish points. If there's a fair amount of juggling due to those two not being deemed ready and no FA help brought in to compensate I would expect a repeat of last years production, namely adequate but not impressive.
    10 team full keeper roto 4C/LW/RW,6D,2G

    G,A,P,+/-,PIM,SOG,GWG,PPP,SHP,Hit,Blk,FOW
    W,GAA,SV,SV%,SHO

    C-Aho,Couturier,Matthews,O'Reilly
    LW-Ehlers,Giroux,Panarin,Rust
    RW-Kucherov,Palmieri,Pastrnak,Wilson
    D-Burns,Carlson,Gudas,Josi,Nurse,Pietrangelo
    G-Fleury,F.Andersen,Markstrom
    BN-Zacha

    Under 250 gp farm
    Beaucage,Berggren,Bokk,Brisson,Chytil,Dugan,Foerst er,Foote,Frost,Grewe,K.Johnson,Lindblom,Mikheyev,N ybeck,Peterka,Pospisil,Protas,Ranta,Raty,Stankoven ,Suzuki,Tuomaala
    Alexeyev,Brook,Foote,Graves,Poirier,Sanderson,Seid er,Wilde,Woo,Zamula
    Berdin,Brossoit,Commesso,Ersson,Husso,Knight,Koche tkov,Lafontaine,Oettinger,Primeau,Sandstrom,Stolar z,Ustimenko,Vladar

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    Default Re: Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

    not concerning his stats but I do think the days of elite production are over and for me it revolves heavily around the deterioration of his skating abilities. You look at goals from his youth and the way he could back skate in the zone to now, he has really fallen off. I am not going to say he cannot reach the 70-point threshold again but the fact that he has tailed off this often on what to me is a very potent offense does not give me supreme confidence he can be elite anymore. Nonetheless he is still a very valuable piece especially if faceoffs are a scoring cat.

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    Default Re: Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

    A major issue for the fantasy relevance of Giroux (and Couturier) is Alain Vigneault. Giroux had 2:28 less ice time this year, and it got worst as the year went on. Any player having their ice time diminished like this will see a decrease in production. Vigneault is famous for distributing ice time fairly evenly among his four lines, so I do not expect this to change next year.
    12 Teams H2H Dynasty, 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, 12 bench
    G: 4.5 A: 2.5 STP: 1 SOG/Hits/Blocks: 0.5 W: 3 SV: 0.25 GA: -1 SHO: 2

    C: Zibanejad, Couturier, Couture, Kadri, Nelson, Pageau
    LW: Miller, E. Kane, Schenn, Crouse, Vatrano, Henrique
    RW: Kucherov, Wilson, Giroux, Toffoli, Tippett, Wheeler, Eberle, Brown
    D: Chabot, S. Jones, DeAngelo, Krug, Spurgeon, Orlov, Gudas, Fehervary, Fowler
    G: Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck, Thompson, Montembeault
    IR: Landeskog

    21 minors (< 80GP):
    F : Miroshnichenko, Brink, Kovalenko, Beckman, Phillips, Sokolov, Farrell, Poitras, Dufour, Whitelaw
    D : Spence, Svozil, Pickering, Lacombe, Kaiser
    G: Silovs, Fowler, Bussi, Ersson, Zherenko, Kolosov

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    Default Re: Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

    I believe lesgoelands hit the nail on the head. Vigneaults deployment is a key factor in Giroux's decreased output. Philly now splits their PP and runs lines evenly. I wouldn't expect any Philly forward to have superstar point totals.

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    Default Re: Bounce back: A Deep Dive on Giroux

    Quote Originally Posted by StillOn24 View Post
    So I've had Giroux in one of my keeper leagues for a few years now, and held him through his so called downward trajectory (the 58 point season) all the way until now--as I'm debating of moving on from him.

    He's coming off a fairly bad season by his standards (53 points in 69 games, or a 63 point pace). The prior seasons he posted point totals of 85 in 2018-19, and 102 in 2017-18.

    Giroux is going to turn 33 come January, and it's fairly reasonable to assume at his age that his best years are likely behind him. However, he has shown in the past his ability to come back from the "dead" after many had written him off following his porous 2016-17 season (58 points in 82 games) to post 102 points and finish second in league scoring in 2017-18. He's obviously a few years older now, so a duplicated bounce back season much like 2017-18 year is highly unlikely. Despite his soon to be 33 year old body, is there still a possibility he bounces back to a near point per game like the good old days?

    Last season Giroux shot an overall 10.7%, with 21 goals on 197 shots in 69 games. This is in line with his career shooting percentage of 11.1%, so nothing was overly unlucky about that (after all, he's only scored above 30 goals once in his career when he sported an unsustainable 17.6 shooting percentage). His 5 on 5 shooting percentage was 8.1%, quite lower than it had been the past two seasons, but nothing completely out of line with his career norm.

    His shot rate the past two seasons have actually been much higher than his uncanny 102 point season, with 2.85 shots per game last season, 2.79 the year before, and it was only 2.35 when he had his career year. If he maintains the shot rate from the past two seasons, he's a safe bet for 20-25 goals, and would likely need a lot of luck (as he had in the 17/18 year) to surpass 30.

    Giroux's offensive zone starts also fell massively last year from the year prior. He started only 43.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone, down over 8% from the year prior (52.35%). Even though he was able to put up 102 points while starting only 44% of his starts in the offensive zone back in 2017-18, it's still a far from ideal situation for a 33 year old Center to be thrusted into a more defensive role (though he'll see a lot of time on the wing--where he's better suited for production).

    Along with the diminishing O-zone starts also came the diminishing ice time, as he only averaged 18:59 TOI last year, down over a full two minutes from the year prior (21:27 TOI). This is what we call the Alain Vigneault effect. Needless to say, this is concerning for his fantasy production moving forward (along with the rising age of course). These two coaching changes clearly hampered Giroux's offensive production last season. Of more concern is the fact that his Points per 60 dropped by 0.5 (2.9 to 2.4 last year), so the drop in ice time wasn't the only reason for his drop in production--he simply wasn't as effective. In fact, he's PTS/60 have regressed in consecutive years now (unsurprisingly, as his 102 point season resulted in a 3.7 PTS/60).

    Nolan Patrick's health might also be a factor for Giroux. If he's healthy, Giroux likely moves to the wing on a line with Couturier and Konecny, as Philly can run Couturier/Hayes/Patrick down the middle. Overall, Giroux's been much more productive on the wing, even though he's best classified as a C/W hybrid for the past few seasons.

    Giroux's IPP, zone entries, and assist rates also all took a big hit last season. His overall IPP was down to 63.9 from 69.7 the year prior, indicating that regression might have already started to take its' course. The only time he had a lower IPP was his miserable 2016-17 season, when it was 60.4. Konecny actually lead the team in IPP, with an 80.3 rate--suggesting that Philly's offensive torch might be passed on sooner than later (if it hasn't already)

    Moreover, Giroux only ranked in the 79th percentile when it came to shot assists, which is still quite good in comparison to the average player, but a far cry from the typically elite Giroux. He's been in the 95th percentile or better in the previous 3 seasons (including his bad 2016-17 season). This stat in particular is reason enough to think that a bounce back might not be in the cards. It's only one season, but nonetheless it is enough evidence to leave some of us unsettled with his future trajectory, largely based on the merit that his best asset is his playmaking.

    Finally, Giroux's zone entries came crashing down like Atlanta's 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51. He ranked in the 43rd percentile in zone entries per 60, and in the 41st percentile in percentage efficiency--a far cry from his previous 3 year average of 77th and 70th percentile, respectively. Clearly, he drove play much less last season than he did prior seasons, which once again is another negative sign for his outlook next season.

    He was still an effective player at 5 on 5 (especially relative to his team), although being on the ice often with Couturier and Konecny definitely helped him a lot. What's most impressive is likely how strong his teams shot share was with him on the ice, considering he started nearly 56% of his starts in the defensive zone. A quick note: Giroux's individual expected goals for was still 9.7 (it was 9.9 in each of the previous seasons), and his expected goals for percentage when he was on the ice was 54.22%, though again his line-mates who were elite analytical players helped (Konecny and Couturier). Regardless, there's still something there. Even though most of his stats and production declined, we can't possibly write him off until we see another bad year back to back.

    I do think Giroux is better than what we saw last year, but I don't think he's the same player he was in the previous two seasons. There's a lot of mixed results from this past season (and I didn't even include his porous playoffs, although most of Philly's top guns were unable to get the job done). I would never count him out, given what he's shown in the past, but there is definitely reason to be wary of him going forward. It's probably safest to assume a 65 point pace, with potential for more, simply because he is Claude Giroux after all--a proven and elite scorer for a decade now. However, expectations of a massive bounce back are unlikely and should be tempered. Sadly, every player has an expiration date, and his days are numbered at this point.

    How do you guys feel about Giroux for this upcoming season and beyond?
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