Konecny vs Forsberg

[StillOn24]

With my current team and settings (below in my signature), which player are you keeping? Forsberg or Konecny?

Forsberg has ran into injury problems the last few years, unable to surpass 70 games played. Konecny on the other hand broke out big time last year as we all know (61 points in 66 games), and carried Philly offensively.

However, Forsberg is much superior in accruing counting stats (SOG, HITS), while Konecny's shot rate is relatively low in comparison to Forsberg (2.12 per game vs 3.14 per game). This tilts my belief that if one is going to have a bad season, it's more likely to be Konecny (as Forsberg has a relatively safe floor even despite his injury problems, and Konecny's shot rate stood at a high rate of 17% last season). Although Konecny was also menace on the powerplay with 23 PPP in only 66 games, his IPP was 80.3 at 5 on 5 and 82.3 on the PP--which needless to say is not sustainable (for comparison's sake those are Connor McDavid type numbers). Konecny's postseason (0G, 7A, 16 GP) is also a cause for concern, though I'm not overly panicking about it.

Both players are playing for coaches (Vigneault and Haynes) who tend to balance out ice-time throughout the entire lineup, rather than riding their top guns--indicating that their near 17 minute TOI thresholds from last season are unlikely to increase by much, if at all. Points are worth the most in my league (as shown below), but the counting stats do tend to add up, especially if the totals are lofty.

I can keep both of them as it stand, but I want to move one of them for a D-man (as I'm only currently keeping Pulock & Chabot and want to keep 7F, 3D, 2G).

The question is, which one?

[Axeman33]

My preference is Konecny. I think his game is still growing where Forsberg is maxed out.

[GinFizz]

Im keeping Konecny here as well

[SeaDawg]

Konecny for me too.

[theIceWookie]

With my current team and settings (below in my signature), which player are you keeping? Forsberg or Konecny?

Forsberg has ran into injury problems the last few years, unable to surpass 70 games played. Konecny on the other hand broke out big time last year as we all know (61 points in 66 games), and carried Philly offensively.

However, Forsberg is much superior in accruing counting stats (SOG, HITS), while Konecny's shot rate is relatively low in comparison to Forsberg (2.12 per game vs 3.14 per game). This tilts my belief that if one is going to have a bad season, it's more likely to be Konecny (as Forsberg has a relatively safe floor even despite his injury problems, and Konecny's shot rate stood at a high rate of 17% last season). Although Konecny was also menace on the powerplay with 23 PPP in only 66 games, his IPP was 80.3 at 5 on 5 and 82.3 on the PP--which needless to say is not sustainable (for comparison's sake those are Connor McDavid type numbers). Konecny's postseason (0G, 7A, 16 GP) is also a cause for concern, though I'm not overly panicking about it.

Both players are playing for coaches (Vigneault and Haynes) who tend to balance out ice-time throughout the entire lineup, rather than riding their top guns--indicating that their near 17 minute TOI thresholds from last season are unlikely to increase by much, if at all. Points are worth the most in my league (as shown below), but the counting stats do tend to add up, especially if the totals are lofty.

I can keep both of them as it stand, but I want to move one of them for a D-man (as I'm only currently keeping Pulock & Chabot and want to keep 7F, 3D, 2G).

The question is, which one?

Just a note, Forsberg has run into injury troubles the last three seasons, but this season he only missed 6 games. So it's possible that it's not band aid status yet.

I'm going to go against the grain of the other responses, and say that Forsberg is your option to keep, and Konecny is the option to trade. Here's why.

I think you've laid out the particulars pretty well. Both are going to be played relatively similarly, and will likely be played around the 17 minute mark.

I think Travis Konecny got a fair bit of puck luck last year, and likely will have that regress slightly. Now this didn't come out on the ice in terms of team on-ice shooting percentage when he was on the ice, but it did bear out in his shooting percentage and his high mark in powerplay points. Prior to this season Konecny shot 8%, 13%, and 13% percent. 8 percent was his first season, so is likely a product of him adjusting to the NHL. 13 percent seems to be a much more likely normal number. Meaning that I would not count on him shooting 17 percent again. That four percent difference would actually have put him right back on track for the 24 goal in 82 game pace that he had put up in his second and third season.

He also didn't shoot anymore than normal. He took 141 shots last season, which paced him for 175 shots over 82 games. His total shot attempts didn't grow either. He had about 240 shots attempted last season, which again paces him for 298 over 82 games. Both of those numbers, shots taken, and shots attempted, we're the exact same pace he had in the two seasons prior. Which confirms my feeling that the only thing that really changed for Konecny in that part of his game was luck.

You also mentioned his IPP, and I think that's an important thing to look at. He's not likely to replicate 23 PPP. Even if we assume he's taken that fourth year step, it's likely that those numbers will fall. The concerning part, is that's the only part of his scoring game that changed. in 2017-2018, he put up 44 even strength points. Last season he put up 41. This season he was on pace for 46. That's not enough of a change for me to warrant thinking he's broken out. It's far more likely that he got a bit of puck luck on the powerplay, and since we know that powerplay points can vary wildly, it concerns me.

Forsberg on the other hand, takes more shots (about 40 more on the low end), and attempts far more (about 420 on the low end). Considering last year he shot 10.6 percent, which was the lowest number since his rookie season and about 2 percent lower than his career average, his total's last year were likely depressed a bit by that. And Forsberg's injury shortened season's over the last two years, were better than Konecny's normal 82 game season's (slightly, but still).

Now I don't think Konecny is bad, but I think Forsberg is the safer option, and the more likely player to score more points. I don't think Konecny has shown us the ability to be a consistent 70 point player, and will probably settle in between 55-60 points with the occasional season like we saw last year. I think Forsberg will be the more likely lock for 60-65 points consistently, and the shots and other peripheral stat advantage he has on Konecny make him the better choice for you. While blocks, hits, and shots are only worth 0.1, that will add up and those totals put Forsberg above Konecny.

But these stats aren't the only reason I'm choosing to keep Forsberg over Konecny here. You talked about wanting to use whoever you don't pick to trade for a dmen. I think Konecny is the better trade piece as well, because of his season and the perceived "potential" that he has. I think you can capitalize on that for a better dmen than Forsberg would get you (given his down season, and injury issues).

So that's why I'm choosing Forsberg here, and trading Konecny.

[SeaDawg]

I feel shame. Wookie is right and I admit to being wrong.

Maybe "wrong" isn't the right word...I admit to being convinced that Wookie assessed the situation far better than I did. I agree with his suggestion and should have considered this myself. Excellent advise.

[theIceWookie]

I feel shame. Wookie is right and I admit to being wrong.

Maybe "wrong" isn't the right word...I admit to being convinced that Wookie assessed the situation far better than I did. I agree with his suggestion and should have considered this myself. Excellent advise.

Thank you so much for the kind words!

I made the same assumption at first honestly, but because I was bored in class, I decided to look at it a bit deeper haha.

[Axeman33]

Just a note, Forsberg has run into injury troubles the last three seasons, but this season he only missed 6 games. So it's possible that it's not band aid status yet.

I'm going to go against the grain of the other responses, and say that Forsberg is your option to keep, and Konecny is the option to trade. Here's why.

I think you've laid out the particulars pretty well. Both are going to be played relatively similarly, and will likely be played around the 17 minute mark.

I think Travis Konecny got a fair bit of puck luck last year, and likely will have that regress slightly. Now this didn't come out on the ice in terms of team on-ice shooting percentage when he was on the ice, but it did bear out in his shooting percentage and his high mark in powerplay points. Prior to this season Konecny shot 8%, 13%, and 13% percent. 8 percent was his first season, so is likely a product of him adjusting to the NHL. 13 percent seems to be a much more likely normal number. Meaning that I would not count on him shooting 17 percent again. That four percent difference would actually have put him right back on track for the 24 goal in 82 game pace that he had put up in his second and third season.

He also didn't shoot anymore than normal. He took 141 shots last season, which paced him for 175 shots over 82 games. His total shot attempts didn't grow either. He had about 240 shots attempted last season, which again paces him for 298 over 82 games. Both of those numbers, shots taken, and shots attempted, we're the exact same pace he had in the two seasons prior. Which confirms my feeling that the only thing that really changed for Konecny in that part of his game was luck.

You also mentioned his IPP, and I think that's an important thing to look at. He's not likely to replicate 23 PPP. Even if we assume he's taken that fourth year step, it's likely that those numbers will fall. The concerning part, is that's the only part of his scoring game that changed. in 2017-2018, he put up 44 even strength points. Last season he put up 41. This season he was on pace for 46. That's not enough of a change for me to warrant thinking he's broken out. It's far more likely that he got a bit of puck luck on the powerplay, and since we know that powerplay points can vary wildly, it concerns me.

Forsberg on the other hand, takes more shots (about 40 more on the low end), and attempts far more (about 420 on the low end). Considering last year he shot 10.6 percent, which was the lowest number since his rookie season and about 2 percent lower than his career average, his total's last year were likely depressed a bit by that. And Forsberg's injury shortened season's over the last two years, were better than Konecny's normal 82 game season's (slightly, but still).

Now I don't think Konecny is bad, but I think Forsberg is the safer option, and the more likely player to score more points. I don't think Konecny has shown us the ability to be a consistent 70 point player, and will probably settle in between 55-60 points with the occasional season like we saw last year. I think Forsberg will be the more likely lock for 60-65 points consistently, and the shots and other peripheral stat advantage he has on Konecny make him the better choice for you. While blocks, hits, and shots are only worth 0.1, that will add up and those totals put Forsberg above Konecny.

But these stats aren't the only reason I'm choosing to keep Forsberg over Konecny here. You talked about wanting to use whoever you don't pick to trade for a dmen. I think Konecny is the better trade piece as well, because of his season and the perceived "potential" that he has. I think you can capitalize on that for a better dmen than Forsberg would get you (given his down season, and injury issues).

So that's why I'm choosing Forsberg here, and trading Konecny.

Great post. I still want Konecny though. I just see more in the future for him. It's easy to look in the past but it's hard to predict the future. I just like the way Konecny's projecting.

[Belexus75]

Konecny for me too but its very close...i dont think either of those will definitely better than the other for next 5 years...they probably rotate year to year as to who produces more.

[SeaDawg]

Great post. I still want Konecny though. I just see more in the future for him. It's easy to look in the past but it's hard to predict the future. I just like the way Konecny's projecting.

That was certainly my initial thinking as well, not to mention Forsberg's injury concerns. However, what sold me (and what I had not really considered until Wookie mentioned it) is Konecny vs Forsberg's trade value. I believe the two are close in terms of potential/production, but strongly feel (as this thread is showing) that Konecny has more trade value. I'd rather have Forsberg, and whatever Konecny will fetch via trade, vs the other way around.

[Axeman33]

That was certainly my initial thinking as well, not to mention Forsberg's injury concerns. However, what sold me (and what I had not really considered until Wookie mentioned it) is Konecny vs Forsberg's trade value. I believe the two are close in terms of potential/production, but strongly feel (as this thread is showing) that Konecny has more trade value. I'd rather have Forsberg, and whatever Konecny will fetch via trade, vs the other way around.

True, but I'd rather keep the guy who's better and trade the guy who isn't, especially if it's for a D. You're never going to win a fwd vs a D trade so you might as well keep the better guy and get as good a D as you can.

[zambronies]

Agree with Wookie. Forsberg had a down year with a below than average shooting percentage, whereas Konecny had a higher than average shooting percentage (17%). There were also injuries to key players in Nashville that hurt their overall offense. In my opinion, I see Forsberg’s value increasing next year, while Konecny’s may drop assuming his shooting percentage stabilizes.

At the end of the day, both players have similar value. I would dangle both and see which gets you a better return.

[lucafen4]

give me the guy that steadily improved each year.

Konecny

[SeaDawg]

True, but I'd rather keep the guy who's better and trade the guy who isn't, especially if it's for a D. You're never going to win a fwd vs a D trade so you might as well keep the better guy and get as good a D as you can.

hard to say...the best thing the OP could do is test the market and see what each forward will fetch and then determine which "package" to keep:

Forsberg + whatever Konecny fetches via trade
or
Konecny + whatever Forsberg fetches via trade

[Axeman33]

hard to say...the best thing the OP could do is test the market and see what each forward will fetch and then determine which "package" to keep:

Forsberg + whatever Konecny fetches via trade
or
Konecny + whatever Forsberg fetches via trade

True.