Keeper Conundrum with Lafreniere and Kaprizov

[bcw1983]

As the title states I have the 1st, 3rd and 9th overall picks in my draft this season. Stats counted are below. I am taking Lafreniere 1st overall, however with the 3rd pick I'm debating whether to take an established NHLer or gamble on a 2nd rookie this season. These two seem about as can't miss as they can get and I feel like it would really cement my keepers for a very long time, my team is currently as follows (8 man unlimited keeper). I will likely be trying to move Wheeler in the offseason due to his age and possibly another player depending on performance this season.

Blake Wheeler
Steven Stamkos
Auston Mattews
Elias Lindholm
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Adam Fox
Rasmus Dahlin
Igor Shesterkin

The top players available are (guys with stars are others I'm really considering should the #2 pick be Kaprizov)
Giroux*
Dubois*
Perron*
Schenn*
Pageau
Marchesseault
Coleman
Schwartz
R. Smith
Weber
Seth Jones*
Werenski
Oshie
Forsberg
Fiala*
Provorov
Monahan*
Mantha*

STATS:
3 points per goal
2 points per assist
5 points hat trick
1 point GWG
1 point per PPG/PPA
3 points for Shorthanded goals
.25 per shot
.5 for plus/minus

.33 per block and hit

5 points for W
3 points for Shutout
0.17 per save
-.75 per Goal Against

[Axeman33]

So are you asking for draft help or keeper help?

[bcw1983]

Just curious what the majority would do. Draft a different established player this year or if the consensus feel like me that Kaprizov is the pick if he's still there and I think he will be.

[Axeman33]

In this league setup, I like Mantha a lot but his inability to stay healthy so far has me a tad unnerved.

[bcw1983]

In this league setup, I like Mantha a lot but his inability to stay healthy so far has me a tad unnerved.

I'm right there with you, that's a guy I'm really high on but like you said he can't seem to stay healthy and it kind of scares me off.

[Axeman33]

I'm right there with you, that's a guy I'm really high on but like you said he can't seem to stay healthy and it kind of scares me off.

Not taking proven over potential usually scares me too. It's one thing to take Lafreniere but to take two unprovens makes me nervous.

FWIW, if you're looking at a D, I'd be looking at Werenski and his 20G from last season before I'd be looking at Seth Jones. How many of the forwards listed in your list had 20Gs last season?

[Belexus75]

from that List i definitely take Fiala over Kaprizov...chances are they play together and Fiala already has NHL exp on his side and can be very explosive himself.

there is bunch of also bunch of guys on your list that are multi cat guys that would add value...i think i take Dubois, Johns maybe even forsberg ahead of Kaprizov for next year. But if he adopts well and plays with fiala, rossi ..in few years all 3 could be putting ppg numbers.

[jdreed3184]

I'd tend to take a more established producer over a rookie, even if it meant sacrificing 10 points in upside. With that said, my top five:
Fiala
Monahan
Mantha
Werenski
Jones

[bcw1983]

from that List i definitely take Fiala over Kaprizov...chances are they play together and Fiala already has NHL exp on his side and can be very explosive himself.

there is bunch of also bunch of guys on your list that are multi cat guys that would add value...i think i take Dubois, Johns maybe even forsberg ahead of Kaprizov for next year. But if he adopts well and plays with fiala, rossi ..in few years all 3 could be putting ppg numbers.

That's my train of thought. You have three young talented players and Kaprizov has the highest ceiling of them all and is most likely to be the best of the three. I like Dubois for the peripherals too.

[bcw1983]

Well I ended up going Fiala and with the 9th pick I took Forsberg and my next picks I took Jones. I feel I lucked out pretty good. Kaprizov went right after I took Fiala