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Thread: Last second faceoff strategy

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Last second faceoff strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by 2014olympicgold View Post
    I'm sure there's stats on how it's like 15% chance to win the draw after your C1 has been kicked out.
    I think 15% is pretty low estimate.
    On an average shift, I'd say the better of the two wingers will still win about 30% of draws against an average centerman on the other side.
    There isn't this massive, massive drop-off in face-off prowess among professional forwards.

    All of these guys have spent so much time involved on face-offs that they all know the technique timing.
    I played pretty much 90% defense growing up.
    When I got to beer-leagues (upper-tier beer leagues, mind you! LOL), I occasionally played center - and just from years of watching others (Yzerman being my fave NHL-er with his backhanded grip and wide-stance - that's the one I saw SOOOOO much in my youth that I intrinsically copy it when I end up on the dot)... I could win 40% of draws against other beer-league centers... and still win 20% against guys that I could tell were high-level full Cs for their entire lives. If you get that stick in and rake quickly... you'll get it 2/10 times clean.




    If we are using that "last 10sec" situation, defensive zone draw, then IF a coach with 1-goal lead can change, he's definitely got his two best FO Cs out there.
    And even if the first gets kicked, the 2nd center (being a team's C2) is going to still be 45%+ on that draw.



    As statistical example, one can sort by LWs than have played 100gp in NHL within last 5 years.
    Go to NHL.com.

    Of those taking a good amount of draws: 50+
    Lowest would be Ondrej Palat... who wins about 25%
    Highest would be Gabe Landeskog... who wins about 53%

    So there's nobody at 15% that has taken at least 20 draws.
    http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?rep...0&pageSize=100

    (Matt Moulson, Artemi Panarin, and Rick Nash take the LW prize for worst combination of FOW-taken & FOW-won!!!)

    (Among RW: Thorburn, Versteeg, Richardson - who plays a lot of C, and Iginla are/were among the best, over 53%... the worst: Svech (1for9) 11%, Khunackl 19%... and Pat Kane: 20%... remember when the Hawks were considering him at C... haha, nope!)

  2. #17
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    Default Re: Last second faceoff strategy

    Flyers still do that with Couturier/Giroux as well.
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    Default Re: Last second faceoff strategy

    Yeah, most teams now have a dedicated LH & RH face-off man for defensive zone draws.
    Usually/hopefully, both are good defensively so that their team can just ice a puck when protecting a lead.
    Then they'll have the LH take the left-of-goalie draws, usually winning back&left... ditto on the RH side.
    Obv - icing team can't change players... so this has to be planned for by the team once the lead is in place and the game is winding down.

    I enjoyed watching Pavelski take all the key draws for Dallas in tight-games this past playoffs.
    (People point to his lack of regular-season scoring this year... but Pavelski was a key player add for Dallas this past year.)

    Additional Note: I hadn't tracked how good Seguin has become on the dot... most NHL Cs get a bit better on the dot with each year of experience.
    Seguin won 58% last year. Damn, that's good!!! (He's been 51%-54% for the previous 5 seasons... quite the *pop*)

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    Default Re: Last second faceoff strategy

    This was exactly my point. If you can send out (Guentzel) first then have Crosby as your second, you know the first guy will try to take whatever advantage they can - either to win or at least to prevent the clean win from the offensive side - muddle up 4 of the 10 seconds at worst, maybe send it to a game-ending puck battle on the boards. If he’s waved out, you have Crosby in reserve, who will win his 45%+ and most likely jam it to the side boards as well. Same with Giroux/Couturier, Schenn/O’Reilly, or countless other pairs. You guys (or E.B.) made up this riddle, I’m just trying to play the rules for all they’re worth.

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    Default Re: Last second faceoff strategy

    Yeah... we're all taking it beyond the bounds of the original question though (myself included).

    The original OP:
    If you're up by one goal and there's 10 seconds remaining in the third, who do you want out as your centre for the defensive zone faceoff?

    So... it should really just be one pick.
    Last year, no player taking 100+ draws won over 60%.
    The top:

    59.6% Couturier (PHI)
    59.2% Miller (VAN)
    59.1% Beagle (VAN)
    59.0% Giroux (PHI)
    58.2% Seguin (DAL)
    57.9% Bergeron (BOS)
    57.3% Horvat (VAN)
    57.3% Toews (CHI)
    (next group is under 57%)

    A fun statistical measure... would be to see how all of these guys did against... each other!
    There's something I'd love to see.

    (Link to the NHL's career FOW totals... though FOW wasn't tracked always & forever... so Thornton, Bergeron, Crosby, and Rod "the bod" Brind'Amour... lead the way.)

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    Default Re: Last second faceoff strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Yeah... we're all taking it beyond the bounds of the original question though (myself included).

    The original OP:
    If you're up by one goal and there's 10 seconds remaining in the third, who do you want out as your centre for the defensive zone faceoff?

    So... it should really just be one pick.
    Last year, no player taking 100+ draws won over 60%.
    The top:

    59.6% Couturier (PHI)
    59.2% Miller (VAN)
    59.1% Beagle (VAN)
    59.0% Giroux (PHI)
    58.2% Seguin (DAL)
    57.9% Bergeron (BOS)
    57.3% Horvat (VAN)
    57.3% Toews (CHI)
    (next group is under 57%)

    A fun statistical measure... would be to see how all of these guys did against... each other!
    There's something I'd love to see.

    (Link to the NHL's career FOW totals... though FOW wasn't tracked always & forever... so Thornton, Bergeron, Crosby, and Rod "the bod" Brind'Amour... lead the way.)
    Im surprised to see JT Miller up there so high. I know he won a lot of draws last year but he's like a secondary FO guy in Vancouver and plays the wing as much, if not more, than when he takes draws.
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    Default Re: Last second faceoff strategy

    Pettersson sucks pretty bad on draws, IIRC.
    They are linemates, right?

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    Default Re: Last second faceoff strategy

    I just used 15% as a random number in all honesty lol. I should have known better to do that when P7 is involved in the thread lol.

    But the premise in my mind still is the same. Is how much a team is willing to gamble if they don't have players who can play wing defensively if the draw is lost.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Pettersson sucks pretty bad on draws, IIRC.
    They are linemates, right?
    He gets out muscled on draws from what I watched early last yr. So I don't even think he takes draws anymore.
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