Kucherov vs Point

[quantaloup]

In an auction league (see sig), I've been offered Point (15$) for my Kucherov (43$). Kucherov is still an unbelievable deal at this price, considering McDavis was auctionned for 71$ (!) last year over a 225$ cap. Point is one of the best overall deals in our league, obviously. Some other elite young players (Petterson, Aho, Connor) have low salaries because of how our farm system work. Basically the difference between the two is 28$. 28$ is probably good enough to buy a solid D-man, or a Monahan-type player. But, it's also 28$ that can be used to buy another star, say Kane for 50+$.

I know it's probably hard for you guys to counsel me on this without knowing the ins and outs of the league but... Any opinion?

[Axeman33]

How long do the contracts at that rate last?

[quantaloup]

We can keep them for as many years as we want, but every year, their salary goes up by 7$. In Kuch's case, I expect he won't be kept when he reaches 55$+. In Point's case, he'll be a keeper for maaaany years I expect.

However, I want to win NOW.

[Axeman33]

If you want to win now, I'd keep Kucherov. No doubt that Point is an excellent player but he's not at the same level as Kucherov for scoring. It's hard to justify telling you to trade for the cheaper asset so you can spend the savings somewhere else without really knowing the "somewhere else" part and that's not an easy thing to gauge.

[quantaloup]

It's hard to justify telling you to trade for the cheaper asset so you can spend the savings somewhere else without really knowing the "somewhere else" part and that's not an easy thing to gauge.

It is. The key would be to invest those 28$ wisely on a proven, solid producer. In an auction, though, nothing is certain. The value of players vary as the auction goes and one has to react quickly. Last year, I remember Seguin was being auctioned and he went for... 62$, following a ridiculous bidding war. He was the last of the players projected for 75pts+. However... the next guy auctioned was Kopitar. He went for 20$.

So the value of this extra 28$ depends on my performance at the auction, whereas putting these 28 $ into keeping Kucherov simply eliminates this risk. You can't really invest in a better player. That was my thinking from the start.

I just wanted to make sure that I was not being ridiculous for passing on the opportunity to grab Point, cause from a longer term perspective, Point is clearly the better asset.

Anyway, thanks Axe.

[Axeman33]

Long term, Point may be the better option, but you said you want to win now.

[Kofax]

Win now, ultimately it comes down to what you can do with that extra $29 in cap.

Kuch ($43) / $0

Point ($15) / $29

I mean, that $0 is probably not a $0, but that's how you have to look at it. What can you do with the extra $29 to make Point + more valuable than Kuch +?

In a vacuum without knowing what else you might be able to do, I keep Kucherov. But if I can get Point and then upgrade, I don't know, a Duchene to a Tavares or something, then it makes a lot of sense to make that move (league value may vary).

[stevegamer]

If it's me, I'm making that move every day, but I'm pretty confident in my ability to do well in player auctions.

If you're really good at auctions, take it. The difference between a $1 player and a $29 player is huge, or even two $1 players and 2 $15 players.

[Skeeps]

Agree with Stevegamer. Point's production difference compared to Kuch's does not justify the COST of the player.

[Pengwin7]

This is a 2-for-2 trade, or 3-for-3 trade... you think of it that way.

First key part is: How many players?
I'll guess at 15.
So your $225 cap / 15 = $15 per player.

You have to make a "bundle" multiplier of 15 that exceeds Kucherov's $43 plus $1 scrubs.
Here... let's start with 3.

$45 = Kucherov ($43) + Scrub ($1) + Scrub ($1)
$45 = Point ($15) + StarJones ($29) + Scrub ($1)

The 3rd scrubs cancel out.
So this comes down to adding up Kucherov+Scrub vs. Points+StarJones.
You have to know what you can get for $29... and add those stats to Point... and see if they are better or worse than Kucherov+Scrub.

The "Scrub" (or WaiverWire) player is the key here.
None of us know that value.
Auction leagues are weird... sometimes you have to pay $25 for a 60pt player... and yet you can find a 50pt player on the wire and have them for $1.

Impossible math for us outside your league.
But the theory is good: 3-for-3... of, 2-for-2 once you do cancel out the scrubs.
Always 2Fv2F or 1F1Dv1F1D... but apples-to-apples... and you'll find your answer.

[quantaloup]

As an example of what 28$ can land you at the auction, last year, I got Hertl for 17$ and Kopitar for 20$. I bought Svechnikov for 8$. Tavares cost 59$. For 1$ I got Kreider and Toffoli.

So yes, auctions are weird. I guess that if I perform well at the auction, that 28$ could buy me at least one very good 65pts player. And perhaps even two...

I think I might pull the trigger. It's just not easy to trade Kucherov, no matter what his price tag.

[stevegamer]

As an example of what 28$ can land you at the auction, last year, I got Hertl for 17$ and Kopitar for 20$. I bought Svechnikov for 8$. Tavares cost 59$. For 1$ I got Kreider and Toffoli.

So yes, auctions are weird. I guess that if I perform well at the auction, that 28$ could buy me at least one very good 65pts player. And perhaps even two...

I think I might pull the trigger. It's just not easy to trade Kucherov, no matter what his price tag.

I will tell you that if you do this, and it works, you will feel more confident the next time. I will caution you to make sure that if you do this, to track the auction well, and make sure to note guys you thought about bidding on but ultimately didn't get.

I find that going into an auction with a roster sheet for all teams with retained players, salaries, cap room, and dollars available per player makes things nice. I'm not one to use a constantly updating spreadsheet and looking for players to copy, because I find I can do it faster on paper. I've been laughed at as the only guy not using a computer to draft/auction a couple times. It's somewhat amusing.