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Thread: US election thread?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by StuntMan12 View Post
    A big red wave is coming like we've never seen before. The fake news media likes to tell us this election is close but in reality the American people want Trump to win. I bet Trump gets close or even eclipses 400 electoral votes. Trump's rallies have so much energy an entusiasm. Biden's rallies feel more like a funeral. I think more people would come out and publicly show their support in Trump but look at all the negative attention Orr has been getting. Such a shame people's character are being judged in such a way over political views. I support Trump. That is my take from this.

    380 is my prediction.
    Somehow I deleted my first reply to this. Oops!

    Anyways I was just saying that this was an interesting perspective and it would completely dismantle the idea of polls being something useful. As an example if the polls were off this year by as much as they were in 2016, it is projected that Joe Biden would still become President. Thats how large his advantage is in nearly every poll in key states etc.

    It actually would be fascinating (though personally horrifying) if this were the case. Not sure what would explain that kind of colossal polling error.

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    Quote Originally Posted by doulos View Post
    Not sure what would explain that kind of colossal polling error.
    Four years ago the polls were off a fair margin, but within the statistical polling error allotted for.

    If Trump wins this year, the polls will be off more than their self proclaimed statistical polling error and nobody will ever look at polls the same again. Why would they?

    I guess we will find out in a couple of days.
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    Quote Originally Posted by StuntMan12 View Post
    A big red wave is coming like we've never seen before. The fake news media likes to tell us this election is close but in reality the American people want Trump to win. I bet Trump gets close or even eclipses 400 electoral votes. Trump's rallies have so much energy an entusiasm. Biden's rallies feel more like a funeral. I think more people would come out and publicly show their support in Trump but look at all the negative attention Orr has been getting. Such a shame people's character are being judged in such a way over political views. I support Trump. That is my take from this.

    380 is my prediction.
    Well said , I think he breaks 400... 60,000 ppl at last nights rally!... Joe cant fill a class room , even Obama looks aged … They know whats coming. #Truth #Justice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wonko View Post
    Four years ago the polls were off a fair margin, but within the statistical polling error allotted for.

    If Trump wins this year, the polls will be off more than their self proclaimed statistical polling error and nobody will ever look at polls the same again. Why would they?

    I guess we will find out in a couple of days.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wonko View Post
    Four years ago the polls were off a fair margin, but within the statistical polling error allotted for.

    If Trump wins this year, the polls will be off more than their self proclaimed statistical polling error and nobody will ever look at polls the same again. Why would they?

    I guess we will find out in a couple of days.
    Yeah exactly. I am uncertain what factor would have been missed to be off by such a degree but it would certainly be history making.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PrairieDog View Post
    Are you feeling good about Trump's chances on Tuesday?

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    I simply hope there’s some limit to the “protests” either way. Fires, smashing storefronts, robbery, and murder didn’t use to be the norm.

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    Well there certainly are some bat shi@ crazy responses on this thread. Hehe. Wow.

    2020 has been a pretty horrible year. Maybe it has just been too hard for too long. Starting to take a toll on all of our psyche's.

    I have to point out that I think the craziest responses seem to be coming from the same side of the partisan divide though.....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Brad View Post
    I simply hope there’s some limit to the “protests” either way. Fires, smashing storefronts, robbery, and murder didn’t use to be the norm.
    You are right there. Who's administration has been in charge these last 4 years....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Brad View Post
    I simply hope there’s some limit to the “protests” either way. Fires, smashing storefronts, robbery, and murder didn’t use to be the norm.
    I really think most people would want this. Its not looking good though.

    - - - Updated - - -

    So no thoughts on how you think it will go down on Tuesday?

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    Quote Originally Posted by GinFizz View Post
    Is this not the "Get Political" Forum? Its your website, delete it.
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    Default Re: US election thread?

    Last week, I watched a webinar on Presidential Elections by historian Kenneth C Davis, who specifically said that he wasn't going to discuss this current election, except to point out that this is quite likely NOT going to be the most contentious election we've ever seen in the US.

    1800 & 1820 were decided by the house of representatives.
    1860 and 1968 were elections where their was major social upheaval going on.
    1876 was an absolute mess, with a tie until some backroom deals were struck.

    His message regarding worried people was to try to let people know that we've had some awfully contentious elections before, and while we're going to have yet another one, we've gotten through this as a nation.

    For people calling for a landslide like we've never seen before, that's not happening. The odds on either major party candidate getting 90% of the electoral vote is really low. The odds on one of them getting 98.5% of the electoral vote or more is essentially zero - and 98.49% is the record for a contested election.

    For me personally, this is the second election in a row where I feel that both major parties are running someone I dislike as a candidate, so it comes down to whom I think will do a less bad job if I choose to vote for one of them. Last time, I chose not to vote for a major party candidate.

    My state has a couple contested races where I already know where I'm not voting for certain people, due their lack of qualifications, so it will be my usual voting for multiple parties kind of election.
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    Tracking numbers and demographics of elections has been a favourite item of mine for almost 12 years now.
    In 2008 & 2012, Nate Silver (who now runs my 2nd fave website, to this one, fivethirtyeight.com) predicted 49 and then 50 states correctly towards the EC.
    Many statisticians will point to 2016 as an "outlier" of election numbers due to many improper polling methods and motivated non-college educated whites switching to Trump. (btw. That's not opinion or tone, it's fact).

    Anyways, Nate & crew have Biden as a big leader, especially with recent polling showing Biden trending in the midwest - where Dems lost key states in 2016.
    Trump barely won swing states in 2016... the EC win total isn't indicative of the tightness.
    Biden will land 320+ of the EC. Pengwin7 Bookmark.
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