Barack Obama Speech

[Auston'sWilly]

fivethirtyeight (screenshot is from their own website) admits to giving Hillary an 81.5% chance of winning on October 28, 2016.
It dropped to 71% on election day.
Still, pretty confident imho.

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[doulos]

I know its a sensitive topic for some but its pretty sad that a womans right to choose is still being politicized all these years later .

You have to realize that they view it as murdering a child. Clearly it's a complicated issue that ISN'T as clear cut as that, but for most folks it is as simple as that. They equate it to murdering babies and it needs to stop.

[rataylor22]

It's amazing how many people don't understand probability.

[Auston'sWilly]

re: "needs to stop"

The reason it hasn't stopped, and won't, is because "they" are correct in protecting those who are unable to protect themselves.

[Auston'sWilly]

It's amazing how many people are easily manipulated by flawed data.

[rataylor22]

You mean the polls you're desperately clinging to?

[Wonko]

fivethirtyeight (screenshot is from their own website) admits to giving Hillary an 81.5% chance of winning on October 28, 2016.
It dropped to 71% on election day.
Still, pretty confident imho.

Unt222itled.jpg

Good post Auston. Incredible how the race changed on this day (October 28th) in 2016. What happened? This is the exact day Comey announced that the FBI had reason to look further into Hillary Clinton's emails due to information found on Anthony Weiner's laptop. Hehe. Crazy how one late October scandal can topple a campaign. Why the Clinton uptick on November 6th? Comey announced that after reviewing the e-mails they found nothing criminal. And boom. It is that easy to manipulate the polls.

That is why it is not over until its over. That said, it was 11 days until the election last year on this date, not 6 days like this year, and this year half of America has already voted.

So, I admit things could still change, but they are much less likely to move enough for Trump in the next 6 days barring some absolutely massive scandal.

In the 538 model Trump was only down 2.8% points nationally 2 days before the 2016 election and 3.9% down on election day. This is within 538's claimed margin of polling error.

[STONE.]

In the 538 model Trump was only down 2.8% points nationally 2 days before the 2016 election and 3.9% down on election day. This is within 538's claimed margin of polling error.

This is what I was referencing. And as I said, I'm still not counting on anything until votes are counted and concessions are made.

[STONE.]

re: "needs to stop"

The reason it hasn't stopped, and won't, is because "they" are correct in protecting those who are unable to protect themselves.

The question that needs to be made then is whether or not you're interested in protecting the unborn, or simply creating laws against women in horrible situations.
Spend some time doing the research--more unborn lives are saved with funding for education, healthcare, and social services (largely seen as handouts by Conservatives) and the stats show that nations/administrations that focus on legislating against abortion generally have higher abortion rates.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...report-n858476

Care about the unborn? Vote blue.

[doulos]

re: "needs to stop"

The reason it hasn't stopped, and won't, is because "they" are correct in protecting those who are unable to protect themselves.

In my lifetime I have been on both sides of this issue. It's heated and impossible to negotiate over the internet. It's also not nearly as black and white as either side would have you believe.

[Wonko]

The question that needs to be made then is whether or not you're interested in protecting the unborn, or simply creating laws against women in horrible situations.
Spend some time doing the research--more unborn lives are saved with funding for education, healthcare, and social services (largely seen as handouts by Conservatives) and the stats show that nations/administrations that focus on legislating against abortion generally have higher abortion rates.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...report-n858476

Care about the unborn? Vote blue.

100% Stone. Fantastic post.

[doulos]

The question that needs to be made then is whether or not you're interested in protecting the unborn, or simply creating laws against women in horrible situations.
Spend some time doing the research--more unborn lives are saved with funding for education, healthcare, and social services (largely seen as handouts by Conservatives) and the stats show that nations/administrations that focus on legislating against abortion generally have higher abortion rates.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...report-n858476

Care about the unborn? Vote blue.

These are nuances that can be discussed in face to face conversations with people. They are basically impossible to have online. Too much talking past one another.

[rataylor22]

In my lifetime I have been on both sides of this issue. It's heated and impossible to negotiate over the internet. It's also not nearly as black and white as either side would have you believe.

It could be relatively black and white. If the true concern is reducing abortions and "protecting the unborn", mandate vasectomies for every male. They're reversible and extremely low risk. Far fewer males will die from vasectomy complications than women who die from unwanted pregnancy complications.

[Wonko]

In my lifetime I have been on both sides of this issue. It's heated and impossible to negotiate over the internet. It's also not nearly as black and white as either side would have you believe.

I don't think any serious minds think this issue is black and white. It is an incredibly nuanced topic. That said, I do agree most people don't take the time and effort to study it in depth, thus the hostility on the fringe of both sides.

Studies pretty much across the board show that proper education, healthcare, access to birth control and social services like planned parenthood, do much more to reduce abortion than draconian laws against it.

[doulos]

It could be relatively black and white. If the true concern is reducing abortions and "protecting the unborn", mandate vasectomies for every male. They're reversible and extremely low risk. Far fewer males will die from vasectomy complications than women who die from unwanted pregnancy complications.

You're right. But not my point. Discussions with real people, face to face, is the only way to move forward on convincing anyone of big and important issues in my experience.