Question - Injuries

[LeafsFan1967]

Any idea why it would be so quiet on the Seguin front?

The Stars last game was Sept 28th, given the new season is expected to start in Jan or Feb (hopefully), and we're Oct 19, why would there be no updates on Seguin, no surgery, etc?

The Bruins finished their season on Aug 31st and Pasta had surgery on Sept 16th, so within 16 days.

Been 21 days since Dallas finished, just starting to think going to get less and less games out of Seguin next season, since 4 months was the estimated recovery if he does get surgery.

I'd assume should have more info soon, and then can better assess from there but just been wondering what's up as all is quiet on the Dallas front since the injury news came out.

I think now he'd be a sell low guy, I don't believe he's all of a sudden a 60 pt guy that can't score goals.

I just picked him up this past season, not looking to move him but more just trying to establish what his current value is and plan for next season and my keeper/rookie set up.

From discussions on here, sounds like most think I should buy out or move Meier for the purposes of a buy out, and have Shesterkin as my rookie and Q Hughes as a regular keeper, in which case I'd go into the draft with: Hughes (4 yr keeper), Draisaitl (3 yr keeper), Seguin/Hall (2 yr keepers), Shesterkin (rookie carry-over).

If I do move on from Meier and try to re-draft him (less a contract), but miss out and he has a good year next year I'll definitely kick myself but my hope is I could get him in the draft because I don't think guys are hot and heavy for him based on last year, he's not a marquee name at this point, just a young guy with good upside that has shown flashes, but on here people seem to be higher on Shesterkin anyways so sounds like don't let Shesterkin go and take my chances with Meier, even though my league is forward dominant for keepers so if I held onto Meier would be 1 less forward to draft.

[Moses]

I don’t anticipate Seguin being back up to game shape (like not just playing, but playing close to 90%) until at least June.

[LeafsFan1967]

I don’t anticipate Seguin being back up to game shape (like not just playing, but playing close to 90%) until at least June.

You don’t sound like a Seguin guy, lol. I’d just like an injury update, nothing since Dallas came out with their injury list. Pasta had a hip procedure himself, are you basing the Seguin take on him being a bit older, or are you iffy on anyone coming back from these type of injuries?

[Moses]

I don’t have the facts and numbers in front of me (nor am I prepared to go dig the analytics out right now) but I know from the eye test that NHL players who have hip surgery are not a 100% for a longtime after the procedure. Let’s say Seguin has surgery next week. We add 4-6 months from, say November 1, which bring his return sometime in Spring. Add a couple months to get back towards ‘real’ actual game shape has us looking at somewhere around June (+/- 1 month) before he resembles anything of his normal self. I’m no doctor, nor do I know details of Seguins injury other that what the Dallas Stars have said. In fantasy hockey you need to be honest with injury projection timelines for player assessments. Seguin is not dead. He is injured. He should heal. He is a great player. He will be again. Statistically, I would hazard a guess he won’t return to form for at least 6-12 months after hip surgery.

https://academic.oup.com/jhps/article/6/3/234/5536657

ABSTRACT
Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) syndrome is a common cause of hip pain in National Hockey League (NHL) players that may lead to decreased performance. The purpose of this study was to determine the (i) return to sport (RTS) rate in NHL players following hip arthroscopy for FAI, (ii) post-operative career length and games per season, (iii) pre- and post-operative performance and (iv) post-operative performance compared with control players. NHL athletes who underwent hip arthroscopy for FAI and matched controls were identified based on position, age (±1 year), years of experience (±1 year) and performance data prior to the surgery date. Demographic and performance data were collected. RTS was defined as playing in at least one NHL game after surgery. A Bonferroni correction was used to control for multiple comparisons with statistical significance defined by a P-value ≤ 0.007. Seventy players (77 surgeries) were analysed (mean age 29.4 ± 4.5 years; mean 8.8 ± 4.7 years NHL experience at the time of surgery). Sixty-three players (70 surgeries, 90.9%) RTS at an average of 6.8 ± 4.1 months. The 1-year NHL career survival rate for players undergoing surgery was 84.4%. Players in the control group (4.4 ± 2.7 years) had longer careers (P = 0.00002) than players that underwent surgery (3.3 ± 2.5 years). There was no significant (P > 0.007) decrease in post-operative performance compared with pre-operatively and with matched controls. The RTS rate for NHL athletes after hip arthroscopy for FAI is above 90% at less than 1 year. Following surgery, if a player returns to the NHL, then their post-operative performance is similar to pre-operatively and controls, but their careers are approximately one season less than controls.

[LeafsFan1967]

I don’t have the facts and numbers in front of me (nor am I prepared to go dig the analytics out right now) but I know from the eye test that NHL players who have hip surgery are not a 100% for a longtime after the procedure. Let’s say Seguin has surgery next week. We add 4-6 months from, say November 1, which bring his return sometime in Spring. Add a couple months to get back towards ‘real’ actual game shape has us looking at somewhere around June (+/- 1 month) before he resembles anything of his normal self. I’m no doctor, nor do I know details of Seguins injury other that what the Dallas Stars have said. In fantasy hockey you need to be honest with injury projection timelines for player assessments. Seguin is not dead. He is injured. He should heal. He is a great player. He will be again. Statistically, I would hazard a guess he won’t return to form for at least 6-12 months after hip surgery.

https://academic.oup.com/jhps/article/6/3/234/5536657

ABSTRACT
Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) syndrome is a common cause of hip pain in National Hockey League (NHL) players that may lead to decreased performance. The purpose of this study was to determine the (i) return to sport (RTS) rate in NHL players following hip arthroscopy for FAI, (ii) post-operative career length and games per season, (iii) pre- and post-operative performance and (iv) post-operative performance compared with control players. NHL athletes who underwent hip arthroscopy for FAI and matched controls were identified based on position, age (±1 year), years of experience (±1 year) and performance data prior to the surgery date. Demographic and performance data were collected. RTS was defined as playing in at least one NHL game after surgery. A Bonferroni correction was used to control for multiple comparisons with statistical significance defined by a P-value ≤ 0.007. Seventy players (77 surgeries) were analysed (mean age 29.4 ± 4.5 years; mean 8.8 ± 4.7 years NHL experience at the time of surgery). Sixty-three players (70 surgeries, 90.9%) RTS at an average of 6.8 ± 4.1 months. The 1-year NHL career survival rate for players undergoing surgery was 84.4%. Players in the control group (4.4 ± 2.7 years) had longer careers (P = 0.00002) than players that underwent surgery (3.3 ± 2.5 years). There was no significant (P > 0.007) decrease in post-operative performance compared with pre-operatively and with matched controls. The RTS rate for NHL athletes after hip arthroscopy for FAI is above 90% at less than 1 year. Following surgery, if a player returns to the NHL, then their post-operative performance is similar to pre-operatively and controls, but their careers are approximately one season less than controls.

Thanks for the detailed reply, I appreciate the thoughts/info. I’m in a position where he’s a 2 year keeper for me, I acquired him last year and he had that term remaining beyond last season. What would you do with him if you were me? We have 2 IR spots, just sucks to have a key guy injured to start next season, and who knows how he’ll do coming back initially. I had thoughts of signing him as a 4 year guy, but that was thinking he’d be a ppg type guy, and I thought 4 years for a guy turning 29 isn’t crazy, but since then I’ve realized doing 2 years makes more sense (like Hall who already had contract when I acquired him). I’ve already got Meier’s contract I’ll likely buy out of, so not looking to buy out Seguin and try and get him at a discount in draft, but isn’t he a guy to hold, even though he’ll be hurt to start next year? Also not sure if you chimed in on any of my Meier threads, I see that you voted for him over Bjorkstrand, do you think you would buy him out in order to hang onto Shest, and take chances on him in draft if he is available and since he would have no contract?

[Locke]

Is buying out seguin and keeping Meier and Shestorkin a possibility?

[LeafsFan1967]

Is buying out seguin and keeping Meier and Shestorkin a possibility?

I mean yeah, and would cost less but we have 2 IR spots, and Seguin still a much better keeper than Meier even though older, so I’d rather take my chances with Segs and try to redraft Meier, I think If I could get him start of Rd 4 or with one of my 5ths that would be ideal/good value, but will have to see. I just like the idea of clean slate if I’m able to get him again and can see how he looks before deciding on potential contract, vs being locked in and not sure what I’m going to get. I like the player though, just seems people on here think hanging onto Shest is a no brainer so need to make room if I go that route.

[jhonny]

Is this the same thing Pasta has going on with his hip? I remember Jaime Benn, Claude Giroux and Ghost having a hip surgery and they have all fallen off the map... Giroux came back a bit, but not like he played before the surgery. Now I can very concerned.

[LeafsFan1967]

Is this the same thing Pasta has going on with his hip? I remember Jaime Benn, Claude Giroux and Ghost having a hip surgery and they have all fallen off the map... Giroux came back a bit, but not like he played before the surgery. Now I can very concerned.

Not 100% sure, just know both have hip injuries. I did find an interesting article from 2011 though, would have been nice to know this! Mind you Tyler has been very durable, so would rather not read into it too much at this point.

https://www.espn.com/boston/nhl/stor...sed-hip-injury

He is on a big money contract long term, so obviously whatever hip condition referenced in that article was not a big concern, but still interesting.

I was reading about Hemsky and how he suffered a torn labrum in 2016, so he only got into 15 games in 16-17.

https://www.nhl.com/news/ales-hemsky...hs/c-283275958
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020...etirement.html

He was older (32-33) at the time, he only got into 7 games in 17-18 due to a concussion (with Mtl) and that was his last season.

Hopefully this is just a blip in the radar for Seguin, just hoping to hear more soon!