Tarasenk or Kubalik

[Riboflavele]

Hi all!

In my keeper league, I have to choose between Kubalik or Tarasenko, bcause i might keep an extra goalie - Markstrom.

How much do you think Kubalik will sign?
Long therm, do you think it would be better keeping Kubalik?

Keeper league, real salary, 10 GM

Thanks!

[Axeman33]

So for clarity purposes, this is a limited keeper you're in?

[Smurf54]

And stats categories?

[Riboflavele]

Yes limited keeper
Points only

[jdreed3184]

I like Kubalik.

But I'm taking Tarasenko here. I prefer to bet on his floor being much higher at this point, even if it means spending more.

Are you crazy tight on salary cap? Or do you have some room?

[Pengwin7]

Kubalik signed for 2yr @ $3.7m per year (Oct 9th).

He'll get 50-60pts... which is great for his price. My benchmark for players is always "Can they get more than 10pts per $1m of salary?"
For Kubalik, lock-YES.

Tarasenko at $7.5m... I just don't see his 75+pt days continuing.... so his value has dwindled.
Especially because he's at that number for next 3 years.

[tweetdrivr]

And we still even know his status following yet another surgery. I’d steer well clear of Tarasenko.

[havanablast21]

I’m in P7 and Tweetdrivers camp here. I just don’t trust Tank with those injuries and Kubalik is trending up substantially. I like him now and down the road. Much better value.

[JSquared]

Tough question:
Kubalik had a solid first season, calder nominee. But, I have so many questions about him as a one hit wonder. Just not confident. Although, I've been wrong before as many of us have.
Tarasenko is a bit of a gamble with injuries but when he plays he's so dang solid.

I suppose what would tip the scale for me is to know how deep you are. Then it's a matter of preference - gamble for a sophomore or gamble on a players health.

[stevegamer]

I'd take Kubalik, because he doesn't need to do much to be a net positive in a cap league.

Also, we should expect Tarasenko to miss time this coming year, which means he's not going to be worth anything while he's not playing. I'd bet you can redraft him pretty easily if you want him, since you are a Blues fan.

[GavinC]

Firmly on the Kubalik side. As Steve et al pointed out there's not much he needs to do to be valuable, and Tarasenko has a lot to prove in a cap league right meow.

I would peg Kubalik right around 50 points floor. I'm hoping for more, but I think that's a super safe bet. There's nothing about his stats that screams regression, he was under 50% OZ starts, played against above average competition, had a positive corsi, still managed a 55 point pace in regular season, and a ~70 point pace in the playoffs (with almost identical OZ starts and corsi, TONS more ice time and PP time). I think that's an incredibly sustainable number, which at his salary works out to ~$75k/point.

Tarasenko on the other hand has to score 100 points to have the same point/$ value... I know it doesn't scale directly like that, a 100 point performance for $7.5m would be crazy and you would be insane not to take that if it was a safe bet. But if Tarasenko ONLY scores 70 points he's costing over $100k/point.

Kubalik:
Worst case: 40 points ~$100k/point
Average: 55 points ~$75k/point
Best: 70+ ~$52k/point

Tarasenko:
Worst case: 60 points ~$125k/point
Best: 75 points ~$100k
Injury (41gp/70p pace?): 35points ~$215k/point

I don't really see a reason to keep Tank. Even at his healthiest I don't see the upside. Kubalik has earned his chance and shown he can play.

(Full disclosure, I took Kubalik in my dynasty inagural draft immediately after Tarasenko was picked, so I may be incredibly biased :P)