Nolan Patrick

[Patty93]

Hey hey everybody!

Would you keep him in my league in sig or drop him? Not expensive if he comes back healthy.

If he's not back, I could put him on bench and I could flip him with a pick for a replacement later on.

[Axeman33]

In a full keeper, if say hold and hope. In a limited keeper, he's droppable.

[stevegamer]

You keep him at the cap number he signed for.

[butch]

feel bad for gm's that drafted him stuck in limbo . obviously if you were picking that high in a dynasty league back then you really needed that asset to pay off .

[Smurf54]

I hate to say it, but I don't have high hopes for Nolan Patrick. He wasn't my favourite player the time of the draft, and unfortunately his career has been derailed by injuries with no real scope or timeline for recovery. I hope I am wrong, and I wish him the best of luck, but in a keep 15, I'm sure you have another asset that will be more productive now, and in the future.

[VanDan]

So is it keep 15 veterans and if a player has played less than 82 games you can keep them without them counting as one of your 15? I wasn't sure about that. If that's the case you can keep Patrick as one of your last keepers. If it's 15 total, drop Patrick.

I've never been high on Patrick, even before the draft his injury history was a concern. I wish him well, but I don't think he'll come close to justifying his draft position. I'd drop him and concentrate on your other rookies.

[butch]

I hate to say it, but I don't have high hopes for Nolan Patrick. He wasn't my favourite player the time of the draft, and unfortunately his career has been derailed by injuries with no real scope or timeline for recovery. I hope I am wrong, and I wish him the best of luck, but in a keep 15, I'm sure you have another asset that will be more productive now, and in the future.

I think he can become a guy like Turris who took a little longer to develop

[Pengwin7]

Too much poo-pooing on Nolan Patrick... as if everybody knew.
Patrick & Hischier were clear #1/#2 during the lead up to their draft.
Everybody knows this wasn't a Hall/Seguin or Matthews/Eichel duo as well.

Patrick's NHL numbers have been fine.
In season 1, he put up 22esp (even-strength points) in 73gp... playing 13:43 toi/gp.
In season 2, he put up 29esp (even-strength points) in 72gp... playing 15:05 toi/gp.
And those are straight-to-the-NHL season1 numbers.
He's a 10% shooter, he has great hockey sense, and very good passing ability.

Personally (disclaimer, I'm a Flyers fan, but also a realist who hates Ghost)... I think Patrick still has 70pt upside... if he gets his head right.
He might be one of those guys who ends up splitting face-offs down the road with Morgan Frost, playing on a line with Konecny or Farabee.

People get lost in expectations based on the players drafted around them.
Cale Makar (4th oa) and Elias Pettersson (5th oa) are really dynamic players... and the better they are... the more we are apt to label negatively on Patrick.

In contract, Nico Hischier's 2nd season wasn't that different from Patrick.
In his season 2, he put up 36esa in 69gp... but he got 18:06 of playing time.
(Hischier had a GREAT rookie season... and we are all clinging to that as reason that he's solid... but if Hischier puts up 30pts in his rookie year... is he, too, a possible "I didn't think he had it.")


Fantasy-wise, I'd buy low on Patrick if one can.
If the Flyers put him in games, I think they'll move him to the wing, where there'll be less grinding and less responsibility.
Let him skate, let him get back to making plays, shooting - with faceoffs/marking/corner-work removed a bit.

He's got skating, hockey IQ and skills... and those don't dwindle with time off.

Some highlights from year #2 - worth watching as reminder:



(Tell me this guy won't be a player... again, if he gets his head straight)



Anyways - attending to the OP, I echo Axe.
If it is a partial keeper... drop him, he's redraftable.
If it is a full keeper... hold him, still lots of potential.

[Axeman33]

Too much poo-pooing on Nolan Patrick... as if everybody knew.
Patrick & Hischier were clear #1/#2 during the lead up to their draft.
Everybody knows this wasn't a Hall/Seguin or Matthews/Eichel duo as well.

Patrick's NHL numbers have been fine.
In season 1, he put up 22esp (even-strength points) in 73gp... playing 13:43 toi/gp.
In season 2, he put up 29esp (even-strength points) in 72gp... playing 15:05 toi/gp.
And those are straight-to-the-NHL season1 numbers.
He's a 10% shooter, he has great hockey sense, and very good passing ability.

Personally (disclaimer, I'm a Flyers fan, but also a realist who hates Ghost)... I think Patrick still has 70pt upside... if he gets his head right.
He might be one of those guys who ends up splitting face-offs down the road with Morgan Frost, playing on a line with Konecny or Farabee.

People get lost in expectations based on the players drafted around them.
Cale Makar (4th oa) and Elias Pettersson (5th oa) are really dynamic players... and the better they are... the more we are apt to label negatively on Patrick.

In contract, Nico Hischier's 2nd season wasn't that different from Patrick.
In his season 2, he put up 36esa in 69gp... but he got 18:06 of playing time.
(Hischier had a GREAT rookie season... and we are all clinging to that as reason that he's solid... but if Hischier puts up 30pts in his rookie year... is he, too, a possible "I didn't think he had it.")


Fantasy-wise, I'd buy low on Patrick if one can.
If the Flyers put him in games, I think they'll move him to the wing, where there'll be less grinding and less responsibility.
Let him skate, let him get back to making plays, shooting - with faceoffs/marking/corner-work removed a bit.

He's got skating, hockey IQ and skills... and those don't dwindle with time off.

Some highlights from year #2 - worth watching as reminder:



(Tell me this guy won't be a player... again, if he gets his head straight)



Anyways - attending to the OP, I echo Axe.
If it is a partial keeper... drop him, he's redraftable.
If it is a full keeper... hold him, still lots of potential.

To be fair, injuries were a concern with Patrick leading into the draft. If you go back and read any scouting report on him prior to the draft many pundits considered him the top pick in the 2017 draft. At least, he was neck and neck with Nico depending on who you were reading. None the less, every scouting report I remember reading had the little disclaimer *staying healthy will be the key*, or something to that effect. Unfortunately, he has not been able to stay healthy. It's a damn shame too.

Personally, the injuries were a concern for me and there was no way in a fantasy draft I was taking him over Nico Hischier. Like Butch, I feel for the GMs who took him 1st or 2nd overall (which is where he probably went in most fantasy drafts that year) and had high hopes for him. I am not saying he will never live up to the expectations that were placed on him pre-draft. I am just saying the expectations are now faced on how many games he will actually play, not how he will play in the games he does play.

[Belexus75]

i picked him up in my rebuild league just few days ago...you can get him relatively cheap and if he does play, there is upside.

[Pengwin7]

I am not saying he will never live up to the expectations that were placed on him pre-draft. I am just saying the expectations are now faced on how many games he will actually play, not how he will play in the games he does play.

For clarity - your own first post didn't hint towards what your thoughts on him (health-wise or production-wise were).
So... (obviously!)... I was attending to, with my comments, the 3-4 posters (not you!) that basically knocked his upside.

Patrick is a bit like a poor-mans-Crosby.
[If we go back in time, 7-8 years ago... a LOT of people were doubting on owning Crosby because of injuries... willing to sell him for 80c on the dollar. In one of my own keepers, the commish traded inj.Crosby for Kovalchuk... then bailed on his OWN league two seasons later when Crosby came back in full force! #EmbarrasedByTrade]
Crosby has had a lot of injuries over his entire hockey career.
Similarly, Patrick has also had many injuries over his hockey years (incl. jrs). And he has bounced back at his same quality to play more... though... he does (yes) get injured again.

So yeah... -as you say- people can agree that he may be injury prone.
But he does bounce back and he does play at a high level.
In most fantasy pools, fantasy GMs are looking for high-risk, high-reward players... added at a bargain-trade or bargain-draft point.
If those guys pan out... their team is better than its acquired-value.

That's Patrick.
(Personally, I think people should treat him and his injuries like Crosby... where Crosby is an ELITE player and Patrick is a GOOD player... and that they've gone through similar injuries from being competitors with bodies that might be "normal" and not super-human.)


[Again - these expanded thoughts provided for OP/others... not for you, Axe!!! Love ya!]

[Smurf54]

The original question was whether or not it makes sense to keep Patrick in a limited keeper league. And in my mind, I don't think it does. I'd rather keep someone with less risk, and then take a flyer on Patrick later in the draft when the field of available players starts to thin. I'm guessing he will be easy to redraft, and in some leagues, may not be drafted at all and can be claimed off waivers. So why give him a keeper slot? He could be a good candidate to buy low with potential upside. But hard to justify making him a keeper unless you have no other options.

[Pengwin7]

^That (above) is good expansion.
But your original post basically was back-patting that you don't think he has upside.

To be fair (in Letterkenny voice)...
We know that the OP's league is a "Keep 15"...
But we don't know the overall league SIZE.
We don't know if teams are strapped for cash.
The actual CAP ceiling is important... and we don't know that.
If Patrick plays... and plays at 50-60pt pace... for $900k... somebody will want to add him down the stretch in a cap league to compete.

It's not clear, but maybe the OP is asking for his protect 15... in which case, from the "PRO" squad... I AM keeping Patrick.

F(12): Crosby, MacKinnon, Laine, Larkin, Debrincat, Vilardi, Zadina, Glass, Hughes, Granlund, Patrick, free
D(6): McAvoy, Werenski, Dahlin, free, free, free
G(2): Hart, Vasilevsky

Those are my first 14.
Patrick at $900k is a bargain, worth the risk.

Btw Vilardi & Granlund... will depend on Granlund's contract number.
But based on his last year of play... if he gets over $3m... I'm dumping him.

[Smurf54]

And with regards to "feeling" for GM's who took him with an early draft, our league was no exception. A GM in our league is a Flyers fan and traded for Patrick. It was a multi-player/pick deal, but the key piece he gave up for Patrick was Draisaitl (after the 2017/18 season, before Draisaitl really broke out). That is a franchise changing deal if there ever was one...

[Axeman33]

^That (above) is good expansion.
But your original post basically was back-patting that you don't think he has upside.

To be fair (in Letterkenny voice)...
We know that the OP's league is a "Keep 15"...
But we don't know the overall league SIZE.
We don't know if teams are strapped for cash.
If Patrick plays... and plays at 50-60pt pace... for $900k... somebody will want to add him down the stretch in a cap league to compete.


It's not clear, but maybe the OP is asking for his protect 15... in which case, from the "PRO" squad... I AM keeping Patrick.

F(12): Crosby, MacKinnon, Laine, Larkin, Debrincat, Vilardi, Zadina, Glass, Hughes, Granlund, Patrick, free
D(6): McAvoy, Werenski, Dahlin, free, free, free
G(2): Hart, Vasilevsky

Those are my 15.
I'd try to redraft Vilardi... and Granlund is not a keeper once he gets whatever dollars he gets.
Patrick at $900k is a bargain, worth the risk.

LOL! I do the same thing every time I type it out too.