That makes sense though as to why he is so high. How do your formulas account for value this year versus value in upcoming years?
Keller raised my eyebrows, too. I think that it has to do with his age + contract term. According to EW's research on player progression with age, Keller is probably predicted to become a steady 70 point player, with a high SOG volume and good PP numbers.
Over the next seven years, if he follows the norm progression model from EW, he'll become a great value player in my setup. At least, I think that's how the numbers are pumping it out so high. Personally, I wouldn't touch him at his current level, so obviously, the formula isn't the final answer on how valuable these guys are. Lots of variables at play.
That makes sense though as to why he is so high. How do your formulas account for value this year versus value in upcoming years?
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I wonder if that doesn't make him a smart bet. If GM's are frustrated by the lack of growth and burdened by the large cap number, I wonder if you don't get a relative bargain if willing to absorb some risk. You pay through the nose for the obvious pieces, it's the not-so obvious ones that you can make hay on. I remember MacKinnon going for a song after his fourth year, new contract and no break out - and now he's the best option in a cap league.
This is very true. It's almost like Draisaitl, too. He had a couple of 50 point seasons, and DID have that 77 point season before signing. But I remember that his 8.5 price tag was a considered a bit too much of a risk for many of the owners in my league at the time - and then reinforced when his first big money season was for 70 points. I'm not putting Keller in that category, but if I am a non-playoff team in a multi-cat cap league, he is probably a buy low who I am aggressively pursuing.
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https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23...katers-part-1/