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Thread: Capped: Top 200...

  1. #1
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    Default Capped: Top 200...

    First : Love seeing the capped: top-200 cap league skater rankings. Great work EB!!!

    Wondering how much the rankings would change using AAV instead of cap hit!? Is it a ''simple'' (that is probably a huge understatement) formula where you can just change the salary to readjust rankings? Could you list the 20-25 first positions using AAV instead of cap hit? Curious to see how different the list would look.
    8 Teams - Season long points only limited keeper (7F, 4D, 1G) cap league using cap hit
    Active lineup : 20 (12F, 6D, 2G)
    Bench: 6 (3F, 2D, 1G)
    10 trades for FAs + 10 moves between lineup and bench
    G (1 pt), A (1), W (2), SO (2), OTL (1)

    F: McDavid, Stutzle, Hischier, Hyman, Konecny, Raymond, Perfetti, Guentzel, Bratt, Drouin, JT Miller, Peterka, Guenther, L. Carlsson, Zary
    D: Makar, Q. Hughes, Malinski, Durzi, Harley, Sanderson, Clarke, Lundkvist
    G:Sorokin, Demko, Georgiev
    NHL cap : $83.5 cap (bench doesn't count against cap)

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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Hey, thanks for the kind words.
    The way I have it set up, it would take a fair bit of adjusting to check in on that, but I could look into it at some point over the offseason. You're right it would be interesting to see how things change with the higher upside ELC guys having their value brought down due to using the salary number and not the cap hit one.
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  3. #3
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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Yeah I think it changes things quite a bit, or at least somewhat.

    I have Q. Hughes in my pool and have been talking with the Makar owner. We both picked them up before they signed their contracts and, while they are very close in value, and I might agree with ranking Makar higher than Hughes, using AAV gives Hughes (me) the edge (imo).

    We use AAV in part because often times the first few draft picks are a good notch above the rest. McDavid at cap hit first few years would have given an ''unfair'' advantage compared to AAV. As with all things it's not an exact science but I think it helps keep a leveled playing field.
    8 Teams - Season long points only limited keeper (7F, 4D, 1G) cap league using cap hit
    Active lineup : 20 (12F, 6D, 2G)
    Bench: 6 (3F, 2D, 1G)
    10 trades for FAs + 10 moves between lineup and bench
    G (1 pt), A (1), W (2), SO (2), OTL (1)

    F: McDavid, Stutzle, Hischier, Hyman, Konecny, Raymond, Perfetti, Guentzel, Bratt, Drouin, JT Miller, Peterka, Guenther, L. Carlsson, Zary
    D: Makar, Q. Hughes, Malinski, Durzi, Harley, Sanderson, Clarke, Lundkvist
    G:Sorokin, Demko, Georgiev
    NHL cap : $83.5 cap (bench doesn't count against cap)

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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    I love the work you put into this EB but I still think it greatly undervalues the true superstars of the league. Based on your list, no one in a new 12 team league should be thinking about drafting Connor McDavid until the very end of the 2nd round. That's not right at all. You are not going to win many pools if you don't draft the best player available in the first couple of rounds. If someone was basing their draft on this list, which is the entire point of these types of player rankings, they would get destroyed in their league.

    Your formulas also greatly over-value defensemen. You have 7 dmen in the top 16 names. Las year there were 2 dmen in the top 50 in the league in points, there were 12 in the top 100. In points only leagues, you don't need to waste early draft picks on dmen. The difference between the #8 dman and the number 50 dman was 20 points last year. The difference between the #8 dman and the #100 dman was 31 points. The difference between the #8 forward and the #100 forward was 40 points. The previous year the difference between the #8 forward and the #100 forward was 50 points. The difference between the #8 dman and the #100 dman was only 36 points. The 100th dman in the leagues your describing is definitely going to be on waivers. In points only leagues, outside of the top 7 or 8 dmen, the difference between the dman is not big enough to warrant wasting early round picks on. This is true in both cap and non-cap leagues. This was just a long way of saying that you need to adjust your formulas as it is greatly over-valuing dmen.

    Your formulas also greatly over-value potential but that is a likely because it over-values cheap contracts and under-values actual points.

    I understand that there is no perfect formula for this and I truly appreciate the amount of work this must have been for you, I am trying to help you make it even better.

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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    I still disagree on both counts and I'll try to quickly explain why.
    For the defencemen you're comparing apples to oranges with the same spots on the pointslists from the forwards, but less defencemen are rostered, so getting those right, and getting some of the top guys is crucial to keeping up. Throughout the rankings there is about a 2:1 ratio of forwards to defence, which is often the amount rostered in fantasy leagues (12:6, 10:5, 8:4, etc). If I dropped the value of Dmen, there would be way too many forwards ranked highly, and you would end up with skews that if the rankings were followed of rosters with 15 forwards and 3-5 Dmen. That's the math behind why they're valued as they are.

    For the actual values and over committing to the cheap contracts, have you ever tried in a cap league to shed a ton of cap in the offseason and get the most efficient contracts possibl? When you do that, then you can underpay for the bigger contracts no one else can take, and it's an easy path to victory. I get that McDavid is viewed as the guy that should be taken first, and I'm not going to dissuade you of that - that's fine. But the math checks out that the value that the cheaper players provide on their tiny cap hits outweighs the higher points production from a McDavid.

    I would be happy to see a comparative formula or something put together that valued points more than mine, and then we could compared the total points vs cap hit for the top 150 or so players in order to see which one gets valued more.

    It is possible that some of the rookies that aren't going to play in the NHL this year are valued a little high in my rankings, but it's a tough balance to not leave them out completely. They do end up having tremendous trade value in cap leagues because of what they end up producing on their rookie deals.
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  6. #6
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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I love the work you put into this EB but I still think it greatly undervalues the true superstars of the league. Based on your list, no one in a new 12 team league should be thinking about drafting Connor McDavid until the very end of the 2nd round. That's not right at all. You are not going to win many pools if you don't draft the best player available in the first couple of rounds. If someone was basing their draft on this list, which is the entire point of these types of player rankings, they would get destroyed in their league.

    Your formulas also greatly over-value defensemen. You have 7 dmen in the top 16 names. Las year there were 2 dmen in the top 50 in the league in points, there were 12 in the top 100. In points only leagues, you don't need to waste early draft picks on dmen. The difference between the #8 dman and the number 50 dman was 20 points last year. The difference between the #8 dman and the #100 dman was 31 points. The difference between the #8 forward and the #100 forward was 40 points. The previous year the difference between the #8 forward and the #100 forward was 50 points. The difference between the #8 dman and the #100 dman was only 36 points. The 100th dman in the leagues your describing is definitely going to be on waivers. In points only leagues, outside of the top 7 or 8 dmen, the difference between the dman is not big enough to warrant wasting early round picks on. This is true in both cap and non-cap leagues. This was just a long way of saying that you need to adjust your formulas as it is greatly over-valuing dmen.

    Your formulas also greatly over-value potential but that is a likely because it over-values cheap contracts and under-values actual points.

    I understand that there is no perfect formula for this and I truly appreciate the amount of work this must have been for you, I am trying to help you make it even better.
    Nah- you know the top ELCs will be on big money deals though- you dont use it as a draft list or youll be hooped when they sign. Look at Suzuki I love the kid and hes just stupidly good on an ELC but in my heart of hearts I dont expect him to be say at Seguins offensive level. By the time he signs for big money he'll be slotting behind Seguin (assuming age isnt a factor by then). Suzuki, Hronek, and 3/4 decent deals would waaaay outscore McDavid, AP and 3/4 bottom feeders in most situations. Ranking them in any other order would be disengenuous. Its your job as a GM to acknowledge that cotract situations are fluid and apply your predictive skills in reading the list to that end.

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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that the formula is strictly counting the one-year value of the player, is this correct?
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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that the formula is strictly counting the one-year value of the player, is this correct?
    Yes thats my assumption...

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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that the formula is strictly counting the one-year value of the player, is this correct?
    It takes into account the next three years, but the first year is the most heavily weighted (with year two more heavily weighted than year three as well). That's why a two year deal like Fox appears in the top 10, and why some of the top 2020 class are in there at all. If it was only one-year then it would be even more heavily weighted towards the ELCs.
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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    I for one like the rankings. Are they perfect? No. Are there good points brought up by chuckcouples? Yes. Am I happy I own McDavid? Of course I am, but I truly believe the main reason he is that useful in my lineup is because I also have great contracts in Q. Hughes, Hart, Pastrnak, Huberdeau etc. I would probably pick any of those 4 before McDavid (maybe not Hart because goalies are a crapshoot). Would you rather own McDavid and Thomas or Pastrnak and Huberdeau? I'll take option 2 any day in a cap league.

    For me these rankings are pretty close to how player values are seen in my keeper pool (they differ because we use AAV but the overall evaluation is the same). McDavid was chosen #1 overall in the first year of our 4 year keeper pool, but back then he was still on his ELC. After his elc he was traded, then dropped because the GMs who owned him had a hard time fitting him in their lineup and balancing out with good low $$ salaries. I picked him up because I had great contracts on my team that allowed me to fit him in. I think picking guys like Makar, Hughes, Svechnikov, Pettersson etc. early on in drafts help in adjusting your strategy the rest of the way depending on how the draft goes. Picking just the best superstars leaves you limited in your draft options afterwards to fit under the cap.

    All that being said, I also understand you cannot build a winning team with only great ELCs. You need to have those superstars as well. It's all about balancing things out and figuring how depending on your league. I think knowing your league is the most important thing if you want to win.
    8 Teams - Season long points only limited keeper (7F, 4D, 1G) cap league using cap hit
    Active lineup : 20 (12F, 6D, 2G)
    Bench: 6 (3F, 2D, 1G)
    10 trades for FAs + 10 moves between lineup and bench
    G (1 pt), A (1), W (2), SO (2), OTL (1)

    F: McDavid, Stutzle, Hischier, Hyman, Konecny, Raymond, Perfetti, Guentzel, Bratt, Drouin, JT Miller, Peterka, Guenther, L. Carlsson, Zary
    D: Makar, Q. Hughes, Malinski, Durzi, Harley, Sanderson, Clarke, Lundkvist
    G:Sorokin, Demko, Georgiev
    NHL cap : $83.5 cap (bench doesn't count against cap)

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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Looks good although I have a hard time justifying putting guys like Byfield or Lafreniere on the list, let alone that high, considering they have to even he drafted.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    It takes into account the next three years, but the first year is the most heavily weighted (with year two more heavily weighted than year three as well). That's why a two year deal like Fox appears in the top 10, and why some of the top 2020 class are in there at all. If it was only one-year then it would be even more heavily weighted towards the ELCs.
    Interesting. My sense, there maybe needs to be more weighting on the years beyond because we've had the MacKinnon/Pasta/Draisaitl as the top-3 in cap leagues conversation before. If you know those are the guys you'd want first and foremost, I'd have a hard time with a ranking that spits something else out. While those guys are sitting well at 8, 9 and 11, I'm not sure that jives with the +/- 5 rule. But maybe there's something ineffable about having a superstar on a below market deal. Anyhow, something I'd consider.

    I suspect you are using contract projections to forecast for years beyond ELCs for those who have their ELCs expiring midstream or is this something that could be added?
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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    Interesting. My sense, there maybe needs to be more weighting on the years beyond because we've had the MacKinnon/Pasta/Draisaitl as the top-3 in cap leagues conversation before. If you know those are the guys you'd want first and foremost, I'd have a hard time with a ranking that spits something else out. While those guys are sitting well at 8, 9 and 11, I'm not sure that jives with the +/- 5 rule. But maybe there's something ineffable about having a superstar on a below market deal. Anyhow, something I'd consider.

    I suspect you are using contract projections to forecast for years beyond ELCs for those who have their ELCs expiring midstream or is this something that could be added?
    It's something to look into, but I have tried to get those ELC guys knocked down a few pegs and to have the Pastrnaks and Draisaitl's of the game boosted up into the top five, but anything I try just throws all the other numbers so far out of wack that you can't even get close.

    I am using the projections for future year values, so Pettersson is shown for his value next year on his ELC plus his value in years after at his projected $8M or so.
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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    I tried my hand at a ranking system for the multi-cat league that I am in. I was inspired by EB's tremendous work here, and was also curious to see how my personal views on player values compared with an objective, stats-driven view.

    My work considers multi-cat (G,A,PTS,PPP,SOG,PIM negative, BLKS), cap hit, term, and age - based on the statistical work done by EvolvingWild. It's obviously not perfect, but fun to create and look at.

    I ran into similar situations with ELC players being ranked significantly higher than non-ELC players; although, those of us in a cap league know this to be true. My actual problem was with guys like Vilardi, Zadina, Farabee, Steel, Terry, Bellows - guys with SOME NHL production, causing them to fly way up in the rankings based on per-game stats.

    Here are my top 50 forwards and defensemen, with cap hits greater than $2 million, and based on the last two years' stats (FA players are not listed):

    Rank Name Score Rank Name Score
    1 Nathan MacKinnon 107.12 1 Jakob Chychrun 79.47
    2 Clayton Keller 102.74 2 Samuel Girard 79.41
    3 David Pastrnak 102.58 3 Shea Theodore 78.78
    4 Leon Draisaitl 102.08 4 Oscar Klefbom 74.62
    5 Elias Lindholm 100.35 5 Thomas Chabot 72.63
    6 Kyle Connor 99.32 6 John Carlson 68.87
    7 Nico Hischier 97.30 7 Josh Morrissey 61.08
    8 Travis Konecny 92.55 8 John Klingberg 60.93
    9 Teuvo Teravainen 91.52 9 Morgan Rielly 60.91
    10 Connor McDavid 91.50 10 Zach Werenski 60.53
    11 Jack Eichel 90.02 11 Neal Pionk 60.39
    12 Pavel Zacha 86.28 12 Ryan Ellis 57.07
    13 Mikko Rantanen 83.72 13 Victor Hedman 55.63
    14 Jake Guentzel 82.87 14 Roman Josi 54.96
    15 Adrian Kempe 82.67 15 Jaccob Slavin 53.66
    16 Alex Tuch 82.50 16 Brent Burns 53.33
    17 Nikita Kucherov 78.80 17 Damon Severson 53.20
    18 Alex DeBrincat 78.55 18 Ivan Provorov 52.07
    19 Sebastian Aho 78.46 19 Nate Schmidt 47.29
    20 Jonathan Huberdeau 76.12 20 Shayne Gostisbehere 46.89
    21 Mika Zibanejad 74.73 21 Jared Spurgeon 46.59
    22 Brad Marchand 74.11 22 Seth Jones 45.38
    23 Christian Dvorak 73.78 23 Keith Yandle 45.26
    24 Mark Scheifele 72.94 24 Matt Dumba 44.84
    25 Dylan Larkin 72.51 25 Esa Lindell 44.56
    26 Frank Vatrano 72.07 26 Aaron Ekblad 44.20
    27 Aleksander Barkov 71.81 27 Jacob Trouba 43.44
    28 Auston Matthews 70.81 28 Marcus Pettersson 42.81
    29 Sean Couturier 69.97 29 Will Butcher 42.55
    30 Viktor Arvidsson 69.74 30 Erik Karlsson 42.27
    31 Mitchell Marner 69.73 31 Mattias Ekholm 41.91
    32 Nikolaj Ehlers 69.56 32 Shea Weber 41.49
    33 Andreas Johnsson 68.82 33 Justin Holl 40.47
    34 Bo Horvat 67.71 34 Cam Fowler 39.12
    35 Anthony Beauvillier 66.79 35 Rasmus Ristolainen 39.03
    36 Calle Jarnkrok 66.09 36 Ryan Suter 38.82
    37 Nick Schmaltz 65.71 37 Charlie McAvoy 38.47
    38 William Karlsson 64.43 38 Travis Sanheim 36.76
    39 Timo Meier 64.31 39 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 35.82
    40 Sean Monahan 64.30 40 Jake Gardiner 35.77
    41 Kevin Fiala 63.86 41 Kris Letang 34.43
    42 J.T. Compher 63.83 42 Darnell Nurse 33.77
    43 Kasperi Kapanen 63.38 43 Colton Parayko 32.55
    44 Bryan Rust 63.03 44 Drew Doughty 32.50
    45 Rickard Rakell 62.81 45 Ryan McDonagh 31.66
    46 J.T. Miller 62.72 46 Duncan Keith 31.05
    47 Brock Boeser 62.22 47 Mark Giordano 30.41
    48 Oliver Bjorkstrand 61.95 48 Hampus Lindholm 29.92
    49 Brayden Point 61.82 49 Dougie Hamilton 29.77
    50 William Nylander 58.84 50 Tyler Myers 27.73

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    Default Re: Capped: Top 200...

    Yeah it's fun to dive into but the longer you go the more problems you run into. Guys like Vilardi can really throw things off if you don't have every eventuality accounted for.

    It's interesting that Keller jumps so high. Is that based on potential, or something else in his underlying metrics?
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