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Thread: Trade down from 3rd?

  1. #1
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    Default Trade down from 3rd?

    I received the following offer....

    My 3rd overall pick

    for

    8th overall pick, 24th overall pick, and a 1st next year

    No guarantee on that 2021 pick, but I expect them to finish somewhere around the 8th-12th overall pick. Potentially higher. So in a vacuum, the value on this is pretty good I would say.

    However, I acquired the 3rd overall this summer in a deal involving Ryan O'Reilly. I was banking on Stuztle or Byfield taking that roster spot. If I were to move that 3rd overall, I'm scrambling to fill my depth with no cap space since it's pretty unlikely whoever goes at 8th skates in the NHL next season. Flip side being after 4 wins in 5 years, my prospect pool is dry and I have some large contracts coming up in the next year or two (Andersen, Barkov, Huberdeau, Laine, etc...) so gaining multiple 1st round picks would be nice.

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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    I don't know if Byfield or Stutzle step into the NHL next year anyways, so you may be scrambling either way. If you want a better bet for someone to fill a roster spot trade down to 5th and take Rossi.

    In a vacuum the value looks good assuming Byfield goes second.
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fast Tony DeNiro View Post
    I received the following offer....

    My 3rd overall pick

    for

    8th overall pick, 24th overall pick, and a 1st next year

    No guarantee on that 2021 pick, but I expect them to finish somewhere around the 8th-12th overall pick. Potentially higher. So in a vacuum, the value on this is pretty good I would say.

    However, I acquired the 3rd overall this summer in a deal involving Ryan O'Reilly. I was banking on Stuztle or Byfield taking that roster spot. If I were to move that 3rd overall, I'm scrambling to fill my depth with no cap space since it's pretty unlikely whoever goes at 8th skates in the NHL next season. Flip side being after 4 wins in 5 years, my prospect pool is dry and I have some large contracts coming up in the next year or two (Andersen, Barkov, Huberdeau, Laine, etc...) so gaining multiple 1st round picks would be nice.

    Thoughts? Help? League scoring and my current roster is in my signature.
    i would keep what you got, assuming its 2020 class only there is drop off for fantasy after #7....#24 is complete crap shoot and 1st next year who knows...from what we know its much weaker class and with covid they loose year of development potentially...

    im assuming Sutzle will be the guy at 3rd...and he will be a stud in my opinion ...
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    I'd say what you traded to acquire the 3rd overall is irrelevant; that deal is done.

    In terms of what you have, I'd use the pick. I agree there is a drop off at pick 8.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    I'd keep the 3rd overall as he'll most likely be better than anything you'd get with the other picks. You'll have to look at moving some of your higher priced talent out in the next year or two, but those trades are doable at that time and you should ride the talent while you have it. I'm assuming you're competing.
    I'd look at moving OEL, Marchand, and Yandle in the next year or two to recoup picks/prospects rather than trading the 3rd overall or trading a star in advance of a large payday.
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    To say I wouldnt want anything outside the top seven is a bit naive of me, but in my eyes, the real candy in this years draft is between 1-7. After that, the drop off starts.

    Im keeping the 3rd overall here.
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  7. #7
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    Picking 3rd actually in one of my dynasty league and I target Shesterkin.....It would be a good pick if not already picked up
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    F: McDavid (12.5M), Kucherov (9.5M), Boldy (7M), Kyrou (8.13M), J. Norris (7.95M), Zegras (5.95M), Kuzmenko (5.5M), Reichel (0.925M), P. Kane (2.75M), Lundell (0.925M), Rasmussen (1.46M), Rossi (0.86M).

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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    as i said above no way i do this trade..however if a D or Askarov amybe even Lundell go top 7, then you get one of the top guys at 8 and maybe its worth considering...still personally would not do it...

    Here is how i see top four tires in this draft

    1

    2,3

    4,5,6,7




    8,9,10,11,12

    Top 3 tire are all forwards
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I don't know if Byfield or Stutzle step into the NHL next year anyways, so you may be scrambling either way. If you want a better bet for someone to fill a roster spot trade down to 5th and take Rossi.

    In a vacuum the value looks good assuming Byfield goes second.
    Agree that if Byfield goes second, I like the deal. If Byfield is available at #3, then I wouldn't do the deal. I put each of Stutzle, Raymond, Rossi, Perfetti, Holtz, and Drysdale in the same general tier, so for me, 3 and 8 aren't much different.

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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    I'd also pass. You might tell them that you'd be willing to do it if there's somebody you really like at 8, in case one of the top 7 forwards falls to that spot.
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  11. #11
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    To me this is a draft day deal; I'd see who goes 2nd (if you have a preference between Byfield and Stutzle) and if the guy you want goes 2nd, you can make the deal.

    I wouldn't be making this deal at all personally, as the quantity you are getting doesn't match the quality you are losing....

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    Thanks everybody for the advice. After talking to a couple other GMs in the league, the guy picking 5th is looking at Drysdale. Which means one of Raymond, Perfetti, Holtz, or Rossi should be available at 8th.

    Does this make a difference? The 24th pick by itself isn't very exciting, but could be ammo to move up for a guy like Jarvis to add to whichever of those other 4 I could pick up. Thoughts?
    20 Team Dynasty (points per) - G (25, 50 for defense) A (25) PIM (3) PPP (15) SHP (25) OTG (15) GWG (25) HTr (50) SOW (75) HIT (1) BLK (2) W (50) SHO (100) OTL (10) GA (-15) SV (2) Use actual NHL salary

    Start 12 F, 6 D, 1G weekly

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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    He's "looking at Drysdale" at pick #5, he hasn't taken him.

    I'd ask the other guy which player(s) he wants at #3 because you are willing to pick one of those players, and then trade down if the draft breaks a certain way, but not if it breaks a different way. Do this at the draft.
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  14. #14
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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    Hold the #3.
    First of all... think about the trade. Is somebody bringing that to you?
    Often - that alone, should be a tell that the #3 is valued considerably over the #8.

    I agree with Belexus comment above... Stutzle is not that far off Byfield.
    I think a lot of people are taking their North American love (Laf, then Byfield) and the sexy talk of "Who will go #1?? - which usually includes whoever is at #2.

    But Stutzle is going to be a really fantastic player.
    You look at the last few Germans drafted highly... Seider, Draisaitl*. [*Yes, Draisaitl played jr in WHL... but greater point is that Germany starting to develop some high-level talent.]
    The NHL scouts haven't missed their marks with these guys.

    And Stutzle played for Mannheim of the DEL... which is where Seider was for two years.
    The DEL is a fairly formable hockey league these days.
    I'd say it has a better tell on hockey players futures than, say, the USHL.


    Long story short - draft whoever of Stutzle/Byfield is there... and relax and enjoy!

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    Default Re: Trade down from 3rd?

    I've already seen Stutzle go ahead of Byfield in multiple drafts. If he is the guy you want then wait to see how it shakes out.

    If you can do trades during the draft, then this is the best time to make the deal. Don't get sucked into the belief of what people tell you before a draft; things quickly change when the floor opens up.

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