Re: Tavares vs Karlsson (HB21 vs EB)
I think that Karlsson is the boom/bust pick here. Could hit a 60+ point pace or could be closer to 45 points. However you more or less know that you have a 75-90 point center with Tavares. I think you're paying a price that assumes that Karlsson hits that 60+ point pace and doesn't compensate you for taking on that risk.
Also I think that there is a large discrepancy in name value between the two at this point. Tavares is the leafs center playing with guys like Marner. Karlsson on the other hand is coming off of one of his worst seasons, directly after signing a massive contract and is perceived to still be dealing with long-term effects of his ankle surgery. I think you should be able to find a leaf fan who'd be willing to pay more (or at least give you a defenceman on a better contract).
Also not a fan of the firsts involved. In order for you to net gain on the swap of firsts you'd need to win the league next year, which has no certainty even if you are the favourite. More likely you lose out on the swap.
I think Karlsson could be a decent piece for you still, but I wouldn't do this deal as it is here. I'd be looking to add on another swap that helps reduce that risk for you. For example if you could include Tuch or Palat for a comparable player with less risk I think this would be ok for you, but more so a lateral move.
32 Team Dynasty With Cap (83.5M) - H2H Pts
Skaters: G: 4, A: 2, PPP: 1, SHP: 2, SOG: 0.5, HIT: 0.5, BLK: 0.5, FOW: 0.1, +/-: 0.5
Goalies: W: 6, SHO: 6, SV 0.25, GA: -2
Positions: 3C, 6W, 3F, 6D, 2G, 3BN, 20 Prospects
C: McTavish, Newhook, Dellandrea, Parssinen, Sillinger, Jost
W: Svechnikov, Guenther, Berggren, Krebs, Palat, Foudy
D: Weresnki, Chabot, Ekholm, Krug, Pelech, Jensen, Forbort
G: Blackwood, Ersson
Top Prospects: Smith (SJS), Savoie (BUF), Bourgault (EDM), Bourque (DAL), Perron (CAR), Korchinski (CHI), Nikishin (CAR), Jones (NYR), Cossa (DET), UPL (BUF), Daws (NJD)