All I’m saying is that there’s more to it. Depends how many d you draft versus forwards. To just throw out a 20 point differential seems like groping in the dark.
I also think I'd take Dahlin here in a points only format but once Brady gets a quality center that we expect he'll get in this years draft, he could really take another step.
10 Team, Points Only, Cash League
25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt
Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink
G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger
"Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."
All I’m saying is that there’s more to it. Depends how many d you draft versus forwards. To just throw out a 20 point differential seems like groping in the dark.
Honestly, it's close, but yeah.
Makar at a 74 point pace is doubling the replacement players at the draft (33rd dman in the last full season scored 37 -- I didn't prorate all for this season).
Matthews and Eichel at C are less valuable, considering the 33rd C that should be available at the draft should be good for 70ish points (looking at 18-19 season totals).
So keeping Makar and drafting the best C available gets you 74+70 for 144 points.
Keeping Matthews and drafting best D available gets you 94+37 for 131 points.
So yeah, if you want to take their paces from this season as your assumption for future totals, I'd prefer Makar in this set-up.
Add in the fact that Makar is a rookie (and one would hope he's got better years ahead), and I think it's even better.
BTkachuk being a winger changes things. 55th winger (keep 5 for this poster) was around 45. So I'd need to feel like BTkachuk is good for 80+ to make him worth Makar. I don't think BTkachuk is gonna get there, but....
Points-only, Full Keeper Dynasty League
Active roster (no starts, just total points): 12 FW, 6 D, 1 Goalie
Forwards: Kucherov, Barkov, Teravainen, Seguin, Hoffman, Lindholm, Gusev, Horvat, Meier, Perron, Schwartz, Johansen, Pavelski, Buchnevich, Hischier, Granlund, Bracco
Defense: Josi, Dahlin, Letang, Gostisbehere, Ekman-Larsson, Petry, Slavin, Keith, Matheson
Goal: Lehner, Holtby, Varlamov
Farm: Soderstrom, York, Woo, Tracey, Dorofeyev
Let's compare apples to apples here. If pro-rated for one then pro-rated for all.
33rd best centre from last season on pace for 61 points.
33rd best dman from last season on pace for 43 points.
So Matthews at 94 plus replacement dman at 43 for a total of 137 vs
Makar at 72 plus replacement centre at 61 for a total of 133
Agreed it is quite close, but I think a bit of a stretch to say the 33rd best centre is good for 70ish points, even from 2018-19 it was 65 points.
17th season keeper league with salary cap,16 teams ,max 38 players per team,UFA/RFA system,contracts.
Cats:fwd(1pt=1pt)top 6 count -Bratt/Hischier/Kakko/Hintz/Meier/W.Johnston/Mercer/Lafrénière/Perfetti/Zibanejad//Mercer/Holtz/Panarin/Kreider/
D(G=2,A=1.5)top 4 count- A.Fox/Heiskanen/K.Miller/Hutson
Goalies(save%,W,SO)top 2 count-Shesterkin/Oettinger
plus 4 other cats: top powerfwd(Trocheck)
setupman(J.Hughes),sniper(J.Robertson)rookie(M.Bou rque/G.Perreault/Stankoven)
Playoffs Champion 2009, 2010, 2018
Reg.season Champion 2011-12,2012-13,2016-17,2017-18,2018-19,2022-23
Points only Dahlin for sure
Dahlin in this format.
20tm multicat salary keeper
19 Active/6 Reserve/ 33 Minors
3C/3LW/3RW/3SKT/6D/1G
Skaters: G/A/PlusMinus/PIM/SOG/PPP/SHP/Hit/Blk/FOW/FO%
Goalies: W/GAA/SV/SV%/SHO
I'll admit, I counted quickly to illustrate the point. I saw Pettersson as the 33rd best C in 18-19 (but in 72 games) and rounded to 70. Above him on the list I was glancing at was RNH at 69.
If I was doing this for my league, I may have taken more time.
I'll also add that I think it depends a lot on your league and leaguemates' tendencies. Most leagues I play in undervalue Dmen. So although I could justify taking Makar over Matthews or Eichel, I would probably choose not to--simply because I don't think I'd need to. I am guessing that if I made the offer of Matthews for Makar it would be nabbed in a second. I'd rather ask for Makar + pick/prospect and take advantage of the tendencies.
And lastly, D are often a bit more fickle IMO. OEL hit 55 and seemed primed to be the next bit star, but...
Gustaffsson went really early in my newest dynasty draft.
I'm really wishing I sold Ghost a season ago.
I think Makar is the real deal and could be elite for years, but Matthews feels safer to invest that price in.
Getting back to the OP however: I don't think BTkachuk is (for points-only) in the same ballpark as Matthews, but I think Dahlin (younger than Makar) is definitely in the elite dman conversation.
Points-only, Full Keeper Dynasty League
Active roster (no starts, just total points): 12 FW, 6 D, 1 Goalie
Forwards: Kucherov, Barkov, Teravainen, Seguin, Hoffman, Lindholm, Gusev, Horvat, Meier, Perron, Schwartz, Johansen, Pavelski, Buchnevich, Hischier, Granlund, Bracco
Defense: Josi, Dahlin, Letang, Gostisbehere, Ekman-Larsson, Petry, Slavin, Keith, Matheson
Goal: Lehner, Holtby, Varlamov
Farm: Soderstrom, York, Woo, Tracey, Dorofeyev