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Thread: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

  1. #16
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    Default Re: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

    I also think I'd take Dahlin here in a points only format but once Brady gets a quality center that we expect he'll get in this years draft, he could really take another step.
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  2. #17
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    Default Re: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

    All I’m saying is that there’s more to it. Depends how many d you draft versus forwards. To just throw out a 20 point differential seems like groping in the dark.

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    Default Re: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

    Quote Originally Posted by sweetcelly View Post
    So based on your logic you would prefer Makar at a 74 point pace than Matthews, Eichel or Marner at a 94 point pace?
    Honestly, it's close, but yeah.
    Makar at a 74 point pace is doubling the replacement players at the draft (33rd dman in the last full season scored 37 -- I didn't prorate all for this season).
    Matthews and Eichel at C are less valuable, considering the 33rd C that should be available at the draft should be good for 70ish points (looking at 18-19 season totals).

    So keeping Makar and drafting the best C available gets you 74+70 for 144 points.
    Keeping Matthews and drafting best D available gets you 94+37 for 131 points.

    So yeah, if you want to take their paces from this season as your assumption for future totals, I'd prefer Makar in this set-up.
    Add in the fact that Makar is a rookie (and one would hope he's got better years ahead), and I think it's even better.

    BTkachuk being a winger changes things. 55th winger (keep 5 for this poster) was around 45. So I'd need to feel like BTkachuk is good for 80+ to make him worth Makar. I don't think BTkachuk is gonna get there, but....
    Points-only, Full Keeper Dynasty League
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    Forwards: Kucherov, Barkov, Teravainen, Seguin, Hoffman, Lindholm, Gusev, Horvat, Meier, Perron, Schwartz, Johansen, Pavelski, Buchnevich, Hischier, Granlund, Bracco

    Defense: Josi, Dahlin, Letang, Gostisbehere, Ekman-Larsson, Petry, Slavin, Keith, Matheson

    Goal: Lehner, Holtby, Varlamov

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  4. #19
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    Default Re: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

    Quote Originally Posted by STONE. View Post
    Honestly, it's close, but yeah.
    Makar at a 74 point pace is doubling the replacement players at the draft (33rd dman in the last full season scored 37 -- I didn't prorate all for this season).
    Matthews and Eichel at C are less valuable, considering the 33rd C that should be available at the draft should be good for 70ish points (looking at 18-19 season totals).

    So keeping Makar and drafting the best C available gets you 74+70 for 144 points.
    Keeping Matthews and drafting best D available gets you 94+37 for 131 points.

    So yeah, if you want to take their paces from this season as your assumption for future totals, I'd prefer Makar in this set-up.
    Add in the fact that Makar is a rookie (and one would hope he's got better years ahead), and I think it's even better.

    BTkachuk being a winger changes things. 55th winger (keep 5 for this poster) was around 45. So I'd need to feel like BTkachuk is good for 80+ to make him worth Makar. I don't think BTkachuk is gonna get there, but....
    Let's compare apples to apples here. If pro-rated for one then pro-rated for all.

    33rd best centre from last season on pace for 61 points.

    33rd best dman from last season on pace for 43 points.

    So Matthews at 94 plus replacement dman at 43 for a total of 137 vs
    Makar at 72 plus replacement centre at 61 for a total of 133

    Agreed it is quite close, but I think a bit of a stretch to say the 33rd best centre is good for 70ish points, even from 2018-19 it was 65 points.

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    Default Re: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Brad View Post
    Wow. You’re a Sabres optimist?? I’d have taken Brady every day. Ottawa first line and power play are being tailored for him. Dahlin seems Ekblad-like to me. I can see Brandon Montour, Colin Miller, Jokiharju, and even Ristolainen taking some of Dahlin’s offense away from him. No one challenging BTkachuk.
    I have to totally disagree
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    Default Re: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

    Points only Dahlin for sure

  7. #22
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    Default Re: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

    Dahlin in this format.
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    Default Re: B Tkachuk vs Dahlin

    Quote Originally Posted by sweetcelly View Post
    Let's compare apples to apples here. If pro-rated for one then pro-rated for all.

    33rd best centre from last season on pace for 61 points.

    33rd best dman from last season on pace for 43 points.

    So Matthews at 94 plus replacement dman at 43 for a total of 137 vs
    Makar at 72 plus replacement centre at 61 for a total of 133

    Agreed it is quite close, but I think a bit of a stretch to say the 33rd best centre is good for 70ish points, even from 2018-19 it was 65 points.
    I'll admit, I counted quickly to illustrate the point. I saw Pettersson as the 33rd best C in 18-19 (but in 72 games) and rounded to 70. Above him on the list I was glancing at was RNH at 69.
    If I was doing this for my league, I may have taken more time.

    I'll also add that I think it depends a lot on your league and leaguemates' tendencies. Most leagues I play in undervalue Dmen. So although I could justify taking Makar over Matthews or Eichel, I would probably choose not to--simply because I don't think I'd need to. I am guessing that if I made the offer of Matthews for Makar it would be nabbed in a second. I'd rather ask for Makar + pick/prospect and take advantage of the tendencies.

    And lastly, D are often a bit more fickle IMO. OEL hit 55 and seemed primed to be the next bit star, but...
    Gustaffsson went really early in my newest dynasty draft.
    I'm really wishing I sold Ghost a season ago.

    I think Makar is the real deal and could be elite for years, but Matthews feels safer to invest that price in.

    Getting back to the OP however: I don't think BTkachuk is (for points-only) in the same ballpark as Matthews, but I think Dahlin (younger than Makar) is definitely in the elite dman conversation.
    Points-only, Full Keeper Dynasty League
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    Defense: Josi, Dahlin, Letang, Gostisbehere, Ekman-Larsson, Petry, Slavin, Keith, Matheson

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