Value of 2020 first overall

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Pengwin kills it, as usual.

Though he's wrong about Byfield... I'd do the math as Laf and Byfield being close to a wash on points. Maybe give a 5 pt edge to Laffy, but I'd set Byfield comfortably above 80.

[Toepick]

I lucked into #1 overall this year but I still have lots of holes in my main lineup though my farm is decent.

I have lots of shinny toys like J. Hughes, Kakko, Podkolzin, Zegras, etc. from last year's draft. My ideal situation is to trade the #1 pick for immediate help (e.g. established players) as that pick will likely give me maximum trade value.

Failing that, I'm ok to keep the pick as I'll get a good player but I wouldn't mind trading down for multiple assets so I can fill holes I have on D while still getting an impact forward. If I can trade the pick to someone who loves Laff, I might be able to get a really good forward and two good D which would be ideal.

Again, I'm just testing the waters to see if my value perception of the pick is in line with the general consensus. We'll see if I get some bites.

[Axeman33]

I lucked into #1 overall this year but I still have lots of holes in my main lineup though my farm is decent.

I have lots of shinny toys like J. Hughes, Kakko, Podkolzin, Zegras, etc. from last year's draft. My ideal situation is to trade the #1 pick for immediate help (e.g. established players) as that pick will likely give me maximum trade value.

Failing that, I'm ok to keep the pick as I'll get a good player but I wouldn't mind trading down for multiple assets so I can fill holes I have on D while still getting an impact forward. If I can trade the pick to someone who loves Laff, I might be able to get a really good forward and two good D which would be ideal.

Again, I'm just testing the waters to see if my value perception of the pick is in line with the general consensus. We'll see if I get some bites.

I think Lafreniere will give you immediate help but it will be less than you'd hope out if the gate. The benefit for your patience should be better than what you acquire in a trade (hopefully).

[Toepick]

It's all math... and only the OP can do it knowing the league's waiver-wire-player-value .

I would agree with the math approach but it assumes you value the extra roster spot with a waiver wire level replacement player. Technically you're right but that waiver wire player will likely never become more than a space filler and won't be in your starting lineup. Would it not make sense to look at it from a "next man up" perspective? Meaning instead of using a waiver wire player as the fill-in which in my league (25 main/25 minor, 15 teams) would be player #51 on my roster, I use the projection of next best player available on my roster able to fill that main roster spot?

In addition, to see the net effect on your roster, you would have to subtract the pts of the players that would be dropped so you can see the net effect.
For example, using your point projections and switching the return to be Byfield at #2, Drysdale at #5 and Sanderson at #10 since I would only do this trade to get D depth.

Draft Lafreniere
Lafreniere @90 pts + best player on minor roster moving to main roster (e.g. Kakko, J. Hughes) @75 pts = 165 pts
subtract worst two forwards averaging 40 pts x 2 = 80 pts.
Net impact of drafting Lafreniere is +85 pts
vs
If draft 1F and 2D
Byfield (75 pts) + Drysdale (60 pts) + Sanderson (45 pts) = 180 pts
subtract worst forward avg 40 pts and worst two D avg 22 pts each = 84 pts
Net impact of trading Lafreniere for #2, #5, #10 is +96 pts
or
If draft 2F and 1D
Byfield (75 pts) + Perfetti/Rossi (65 pts) + Sanderson (45 pts) = 185 pts
subtract worst two forwards avg 40 pts and worst D avg 20 = 100 pts
Net impact of trading Lafreniere for #2, #5, #10 is +85pts

I think this logic would work in pts only league. For multi-cat, you'd have to do the same calculations for all the scoring cats (way too much work!!) to see if that type of trade would work. Anyway, long story short, I think the minimum I would need to get to trade Lafreniere would be picks #2, #5 and #10. Anything else would not be worth it.

Now need to take advil as this much math in the summer time is not healthy.

[stevegamer]

I would agree with the math approach but it assumes you value the extra roster spot with a waiver wire level replacement player. Technically you're right but that waiver wire player will likely never become more than a space filler and won't be in your starting lineup. Would it not make sense to look at it from a "next man up" perspective? Meaning instead of using a waiver wire player as the fill-in which in my league (25 main/25 minor, 15 teams) would be player #51 on my roster, I use the projection of next best player available on my roster able to fill that main roster spot?

In addition, to see the net effect on your roster, you would have to subtract the pts of the players that would be dropped so you can see the net effect.
For example, using your point projections and switching the return to be Byfield at #2, Drysdale at #5 and Sanderson at #10 since I would only do this trade to get D depth.

Draft Lafreniere
Lafreniere @90 pts + best player on minor roster moving to main roster (e.g. Kakko, J. Hughes) @75 pts = 165 pts
subtract worst two forwards averaging 40 pts x 2 = 80 pts.
Net impact of drafting Lafreniere is +85 pts
vs
If draft 1F and 2D
Byfield (75 pts) + Drysdale (60 pts) + Sanderson (45 pts) = 180 pts
subtract worst forward avg 40 pts and worst two D avg 22 pts each = 84 pts
Net impact of trading Lafreniere for #2, #5, #10 is +96 pts
or
If draft 2F and 1D
Byfield (75 pts) + Perfetti/Rossi (65 pts) + Sanderson (45 pts) = 185 pts
subtract worst two forwards avg 40 pts and worst D avg 20 = 100 pts
Net impact of trading Lafreniere for #2, #5, #10 is +85pts

I think this logic would work in pts only league. For multi-cat, you'd have to do the same calculations for all the scoring cats (way too much work!!) to see if that type of trade would work. Anyway, long story short, I think the minimum I would need to get to trade Lafreniere would be picks #2, #5 and #10. Anything else would not be worth it.

Now need to take advil as this much math in the summer time is not healthy.

A couple things.

1. Projecting any D prospect to 60 points seems crazy to me.

2. The players that leave your roster may not be dropped when you promote one of those other players, you may make an unbalanced main roster trade, opening a roster spot. You might deal prospects.

3. How often you make start decisions is also important. If it's a daily start league, that waiver add may play a decent amount. If the league allows lots of movement from reserve roster to main roster, you may get a bunch

[Toepick]

1) Good point but I think the pts forecasting was not for their rookie year but more what they project to provide on avg at their peak. At least that's how I took it. If it was for next year's projections, I think all of the pts total are greatly inflated. I think Laff may get 50 and everyone else would be 0 or in the 30-35 range.

2) Unbalanced trades happen but as everyone's rosters are full, someone always has to be eventually dropped to stay compliant. My roster is full so any unbalanced trade will mean a drop.

3) league is daily starts and you can move players from main to minor as much as you want until players reach their minimum GP limit. Once they do, they need to be promoted on a full time basis or dropped/traded. You can't stream players as you have a max played limit for each slot.

[FutureChamp]

Slightly off topic from OP, but projecting any prospect D man to score 60 points is a dangerous game to play.

In 2019, 6 dmen out of over 300 that played games actually hit the 60 point mark, with maybe 10-15 (I didn’t do math on all of them) scoring at that pace.

I wouldn’t touch a Dman with a top 5-10 pick unless he’s truly special. A Makar or Dahlin. most often take long to develop and Have an impact. Just cause Drysdale is the Best D available In draft doesn’t mean he’s a 60 point dman. In my opinion he’s not at a Makar or Hughes level

If you need long term help on D I’d personally try to acquire a Current younger talent That may be on his way there via a trade. If you trade down for 2nd 5th you’ll regret taking a D over the forwards that are available. If you get a 3rd pick in top ten, I’d pick a D with that if you really need to. My 2 cents

[Pengwin7]

Yeah... to expand on others - pegging the point-projections for players is subject to how the OP wants to do it.
And pegging a value for the waiver-player (which... also means... "last rostered forward" - since GMs tend to stream that position out with hot players) is also subject to how the OP sees it.

The post is more about the method:
Compare 2F-to-2F... and you'll go about it the right way.

Same if somebody offers 3"anythings" for 1"superstar"... that's a 3-for-3 trade, and the two "plugs" have to be given some value - which depends on league depth.
That's why knowing league size, rosters, and waiver-wire-availability is key - and the OP is really the only person that really truly knows that part.

[Pengwin7]

Pengwin kills it, as usual.

Though he's wrong about Byfield... I'd do the math as Laf and Byfield being close to a wash on points. Maybe give a 5 pt edge to Laffy, but I'd set Byfield comfortably above 80.

Please, please be right!
I have the #2 overall pick in my main league (WHL).
And I'm (obviously) taking... whoever's there!!!

(I speculate NYR takes Laf... and LA takes Byfield... and I just prefer that NYR PP1 unit for Laf. Panarin/Ziba/Kakko/TonyD > Top4 LA.)

[fantasyhockeygeek]

I hear you... and while LA is a little further away their cupboard is enviable.... Top end upside everywhere.

I really think Byfield is Malkin-like. He's huge, has the ability to manhandle when he wants, and can do it all.

[stevegamer]

1) Good point but I think the pts forecasting was not for their rookie year but more what they project to provide on avg at their peak. At least that's how I took it. If it was for next year's projections, I think all of the pts total are greatly inflated. I think Laff may get 50 and everyone else would be 0 or in the 30-35 range.

2) Unbalanced trades happen but as everyone's rosters are full, someone always has to be eventually dropped to stay compliant. My roster is full so any unbalanced trade will mean a drop.

3) league is daily starts and you can move players from main to minor as much as you want until players reach their minimum GP limit. Once they do, they need to be promoted on a full time basis or dropped/traded. You can't stream players as you have a max played limit for each slot.

I guess i needed to be more clear.

1. Projecting any prospect D for 60 points average at their peak is crazy to me. However, you need to project what you think. I know that prospect D are a weakness of mine. Somebody else pointed out the rarity of 60 point D. Basically take all the D, see how many scored at 0.73 PPG or better for enough of the season and that's your list.

2. Not necessarily. If the extra comes as a pick which gets dealt before being made, no drop. Also you don't have a drop if not if you are the one sending out the extra player to free up the promotion space.

3. So you can stream players, but it's limited to max games played. That's something, at least. You can likely get your top backup at a spot to cover for most of the injury man-games missed by your expected starters.

That last part tells me you may want to look at the waiver add differently, and look for prospect players who may have a longshot chance of hitting, and use the move to stash them.

Good luck in whatever you decide.