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Thread: Value of 2020 first overall

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    Default Value of 2020 first overall

    Hey all,
    Hoping to get input on potential return for the 2020 1st overall prospect pick in a deep multi-cat dynasty league.

    I'm exploring trades for existing players that can provide immediate help but was wondering what kind of return should I look for if a trade was made involving only 2020 draft picks. I need long term help on D as I'm well stocked with young high end forwards but low on prospect D.

    If I can't secure a deal for existing help, I'm looking at getting multiple picks so as to allow me to pick at least one of the top D in this year's draft. I think I can get a top forward/top D or two top D if I can get an extra pick in the 4 to 10 range.

    On a trade based purely on draft picks, would you trade 1st overall for:
    #2 & #5
    #2 & #10
    #5 & #10
    #4 & #6

    I know there's a bunch of other variables to consider but at face value, are any of these a fair return?

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    The only ones I would consider would be the first two, the ones where you get #2 over all.

    I might be convinced to consider the last option as well where you get #4 and #6. But if you are able to get #2 and #5 that is obviously the better option.

    I think if it was me, I would strongly consider the #2 and #5 and would be doing lots of research on LAfrenier to determine if he is the real deal or not. And trying to figure out how much more valuable he could be than Byfield (who I would be considering at #2)

    After doing this research if I felt I liked Byfield (or other prospect at #2 overall) enough then I would make the deal.

    If you really want that defenseman, then you would likely get one of the top 2 at #5. It might be risky to get one of them at #10 overall.
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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    I might be willing to take 2 and 5 for it, but none of the others are enough.
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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I might be willing to take 2 and 5 for it, but none of the others are enough.
    Agreed.

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    I would probably even pass on 2 + 5 but it's definitely the only one that would get me to stop and evaluate it closely.

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    If you're thinking about trading down because you want to draft an 18-year-old defenseman, don't.
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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    I would look at 2 and 5. Byfield and say, Rossi or Perfetti is pretty enticing.

    I'm sure you can get him to add more though...if you are trading 1st overall, you can pretty much demand the world. And 2nd overall absolutely has to be in the deal.

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    The only ones I'd entertain is 2+5 for 1. Anything else isn't worth your time.
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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    If you're thinking about trading down because you want to draft an 18-year-old defenseman, don't.
    This

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    i posted in another post,

    I recieved the 3,4,5 overall picks for number 1, and to me that is like getting 2,4,5 as byfield and stutzl could go any order, ..... hold out for more imo

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    Two questions to really understand here.

    1. Does your league differentiate between forward positions a la C/LW/RW or is it just F?
    2. When is your draft?

    I would only consider trading down if you are guaranteed to get Byfield. As others have said #2 and #5 seems pretty compelling... I'd probably do that, but I'd wait until the eve of your draft when FOMO is the highest.

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    Forwards are broken down by C and W.
    We draft after the NHL draft so lots of time to ponder and see what teams pick what players.

    Thanks all for the feedback. Gives me a little more clarity on where to go.

    #2 & #5 seems to be the minimum price if no other major sweetener involved.

    Would #2, #5 and #10 be sufficient?

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Toepick View Post
    Forwards are broken down by C and W.
    We draft after the NHL draft so lots of time to ponder and see what teams pick what players.

    Thanks all for the feedback. Gives me a little more clarity on where to go.

    #2 & #5 seems to be the minimum price if no other major sweetener involved.

    Would #2, #5 and #10 be sufficient?
    I think IF you are intent on trading Laf, that is an acceptable offer.

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    What does the rest of your team look like? I personally think the gap between Byfield and Lafreniere is rather small in a points-only format so getting the #5 and #10 picks would be really nice compensation. Positional scarcity definitely gives Lafreniere a value bump though, and that's not to be underestimated.

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    Default Re: Value of 2020 first overall

    Any unbalanced trade should be "balanced" and then you can do apples-to-apples.

    So, let's call this a 2-for-2.
    And you do it that way for all players.

    Ex.
    Lafreniere (90pt player) + WaiverWireRiser (xxpt player)
    vs
    Byfield (75pt player) + Rossi/Perfetti (65pt player)


    *The key here is that these are all about the WaiverWireRiser.
    Part i) What is that point value that you can find (as a sneaky gem) over the years AND
    Part ii) What is the relative WaiverWire Player value.

    In some "deep leagues", 30pt forwards are waiver-wire-value... and with skill, you might snag a guy with 40pt potential.
    In other "deep leagues", 40pt forwards are waiver-wire-value... and with skill, you might snag a guy with 55pt potential.


    If we use "40pts" as a "Benchmark", then the trade is as follows:
    Laf (+50) + WWR (0 to +10, if you are keen)
    vs.
    Byfield (+35) + Rossi/Perfetti (+25)


    So... people's GUT that the #1 pick for #2 & #5... is pretty spot-on.
    Anything else, is too little... (but if the league is SOOO DEEEP that a waiver wire forward is 20pts... then you can see how 2+10 or 4+6 might also be a consideration).

    It's all math... and only the OP can do it knowing the league's waiver-wire-player-value (and what might be "keenly snagged").

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