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Thread: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

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    Default Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    My strategy is always focusing on winning the current season until you realize that won't be possible. That's when you start building for next year. Never plan to tank a season as it's just not worth it in most fantasy leagues. The ability to make so many trades makes a long rebuilding strategy pointless.
    This really got me thinking...

    There have been times, I admit, that I did not take this approach in the draft. Believing I had already lost before the season started. This forced me, strong words as it was my conscious choice, to draft for primarily youth and unmet upside. The forum gave some great thoughts/feedback about how I should keep this season and now I focus on my draft approach.

    I believe I have a decent core and will add Lafreniere with the 1st overall pick. Where would you go from there? I only get to add 9 players to my roster, so not easy to maximize points through the draft.

    Players like Eberle, Kreider, Buchnevich, Vatanen, Girard, Francouz, and Lehner are available in FA.
    Similar players with slightly better stats will be dropped.
    Prospect options like Kaprizov, Gusev, Batherson, Iafallo, Bouchard, Byrom, Brannstrom, Sorokin, and Nedeljkovic are all available.

    How would you approach the upcoming draft? I finished last. First place was 500 pts better which would be a 20% point increase for me to reach the top.
    9 Team Points Only Dynasty - 27 Player Roster (17 Keepers) - 12 F, 6 D, 2 UTL, 2 G, 5 Bench - 2.5G, 2A, 1PP, 2SHG, 1SHA, 3W, 2SO, 1OTL, 0.05SV

    F: J Robertson, Huberdeau, Rantanen, Aho, Kaprizov, Scheifele, Connor, DeBrincat, Cozens, Ehlers, Toffoli, Kopitar, Trocheck, Schmaltz, W Johnston, Teravainen, J Quinn
    D: Dahlin, Werenski, M Rielly, S Jones, McCavoy, Gustafsson
    G: Shesterkin, Bobrovsky

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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    1st of all, looking at your planned keepers and drops, I'd swap B. Tkachuk in for Kakko or Dach (probably Dach) and I'd swap Dumba in for Boqvist.

    After that I'd look into drafting a 3rd goalie. Depending on when your draft is, I'd wait to see where Lehner ends up or grab Sorokin (if both go early I'd look to grab Francouz later on). And then with the exception of Gusev and Kaprizob I'd pass over the other prospects you listed and grab established players such as Kreider, Buch, etc.
    32 Team Dynasty With Cap (83.5M) - H2H Pts
    Skaters: G: 4, A: 2, PPP: 1, SHP: 2, SOG: 0.5, HIT: 0.5, BLK: 0.5, FOW: 0.1, +/-: 0.5
    Goalies: W: 6, SHO: 6, SV 0.25, GA: -2
    Positions: 3C, 6W, 3F, 6D, 2G, 3BN, 20 Prospects

    C: McTavish, Newhook, Dellandrea, Parssinen, Sillinger, Jost
    W: Svechnikov, Guenther, Berggren, Krebs, Palat, Foudy
    D: Weresnki, Chabot, Ekholm, Krug, Pelech, Jensen, Forbort
    G: Blackwood, Ersson

    Top Prospects: Smith (SJS), Savoie (BUF), Bourgault (EDM), Bourque (DAL), Perron (CAR), Korchinski (CHI), Nikishin (CAR), Jones (NYR), Cossa (DET), UPL (BUF), Daws (NJD)

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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    1. Dropping Brady Tkachuk is a horrible idea. I'd keep him over Boqvist or Kakko or Samsonov.

    2. Gusev/Iafallo aren't prospects, they are mid 20's players who may grow, but aren't prospects. Don't confuse years in the league with age, especially for forwards.

    3. I'd lean towards taking best player with the rest of the draft, but get a 3rd goalie.
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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    Quote Originally Posted by jshed2 View Post
    1st of all, looking at your planned keepers and drops, I'd swap B. Tkachuk in for Kakko or Dach (probably Dach) and I'd swap Dumba in for Boqvist.

    After that I'd look into drafting a 3rd goalie. Depending on when your draft is, I'd wait to see where Lehner ends up or grab Sorokin (if both go early I'd look to grab Francouz later on). And then with the exception of Gusev and Kaprizob I'd pass over the other prospects you listed and grab established players such as Kreider, Buch, etc.
    I can see where you're coming from. With 5 spots for the bench I'm comfortable holding onto some youth that have higher upsides. Reducing that number (i.e. swapping out Kakko, Dach, and/or Boqvist) of blue chip prospects certainly gives me greater opportunity at the bottom of my lineup.

    Drafting a goalie is important, one hundred percent agree. I like Lehner as well and am curious to see where he ends up. History shows that my draft pool picks goalies in the 4th round or later because the top flight G are already keepers. Last year I drafted Markstrom in the 3rd and that wrangled the other GMs but they flipped him halfway through the season when I knew I wouldn't win. I got Boeser and a 4th rounder.

    I have shopped Dumba and no one is interested. I suspect I'll be able to grab him in the 2nd or 3rd round and if not, grab someone like Girard. But that's all circumspect.

    Definitely see grabbing more established players with more predictable scoring because of the histories feels right but I do like the appeal of a young prospect. They are my kryptonite. Maybe why I am bottom dwelling presently LOL
    9 Team Points Only Dynasty - 27 Player Roster (17 Keepers) - 12 F, 6 D, 2 UTL, 2 G, 5 Bench - 2.5G, 2A, 1PP, 2SHG, 1SHA, 3W, 2SO, 1OTL, 0.05SV

    F: J Robertson, Huberdeau, Rantanen, Aho, Kaprizov, Scheifele, Connor, DeBrincat, Cozens, Ehlers, Toffoli, Kopitar, Trocheck, Schmaltz, W Johnston, Teravainen, J Quinn
    D: Dahlin, Werenski, M Rielly, S Jones, McCavoy, Gustafsson
    G: Shesterkin, Bobrovsky

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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    Quote Originally Posted by JSquared View Post
    I have shopped Dumba and no one is interested. I suspect I'll be able to grab him in the 2nd or 3rd round and if not, grab someone like Girard. But that's all circumspect.
    I'll agree that Dumba isn't exactly in the upper tier of D keepers after this past season. However, if you can grab Dumba in the 3rd then you should be able to grab Boqvist in the 5th or 6th. He'll be a good fantasy own eventually, but in the short-term he hasn't done anything to prove he has value. In a limited keeper, he's the type of guy I'll go for in the last few rounds because he has the opportunity to hit big, but I'll plan on dropping him early on if he doesn't produce.
    32 Team Dynasty With Cap (83.5M) - H2H Pts
    Skaters: G: 4, A: 2, PPP: 1, SHP: 2, SOG: 0.5, HIT: 0.5, BLK: 0.5, FOW: 0.1, +/-: 0.5
    Goalies: W: 6, SHO: 6, SV 0.25, GA: -2
    Positions: 3C, 6W, 3F, 6D, 2G, 3BN, 20 Prospects

    C: McTavish, Newhook, Dellandrea, Parssinen, Sillinger, Jost
    W: Svechnikov, Guenther, Berggren, Krebs, Palat, Foudy
    D: Weresnki, Chabot, Ekholm, Krug, Pelech, Jensen, Forbort
    G: Blackwood, Ersson

    Top Prospects: Smith (SJS), Savoie (BUF), Bourgault (EDM), Bourque (DAL), Perron (CAR), Korchinski (CHI), Nikishin (CAR), Jones (NYR), Cossa (DET), UPL (BUF), Daws (NJD)

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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    1. Dropping Brady Tkachuk is a horrible idea. I'd keep him over Boqvist or Kakko or Samsonov.

    2. Gusev/Iafallo aren't prospects, they are mid 20's players who may grow, but aren't prospects. Don't confuse years in the league with age, especially for forwards.

    3. I'd lean towards taking best player with the rest of the draft, but get a 3rd goalie.

    Really love the straight-forward and honest feedback and thoughts. I recognize that I asked for advice for the quickest route to win. @Stevegamer, would your response change if I was looking at a 2-3 year window to win and not make such a large leap (wishful large leap) in one season?
    9 Team Points Only Dynasty - 27 Player Roster (17 Keepers) - 12 F, 6 D, 2 UTL, 2 G, 5 Bench - 2.5G, 2A, 1PP, 2SHG, 1SHA, 3W, 2SO, 1OTL, 0.05SV

    F: J Robertson, Huberdeau, Rantanen, Aho, Kaprizov, Scheifele, Connor, DeBrincat, Cozens, Ehlers, Toffoli, Kopitar, Trocheck, Schmaltz, W Johnston, Teravainen, J Quinn
    D: Dahlin, Werenski, M Rielly, S Jones, McCavoy, Gustafsson
    G: Shesterkin, Bobrovsky

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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    Quote Originally Posted by jshed2 View Post
    I'll agree that Dumba isn't exactly in the upper tier of D keepers after this past season. However, if you can grab Dumba in the 3rd then you should be able to grab Boqvist in the 5th or 6th. He'll be a good fantasy own eventually, but in the short-term he hasn't done anything to prove he has value. In a limited keeper, he's the type of guy I'll go for in the last few rounds because he has the opportunity to hit big, but I'll plan on dropping him early on if he doesn't produce.
    Good point about potential later availability for Boqvist. I'll continue to mull that over. This league is funny, GMs draft high prospects and on average hold 3 as a keeper. Typically, the whole first round (save one or two guys) pick rookies. Imaginably, Boqvist would be picked up in the 1st round because he has upside and more games than a Ty Smith, for example. Smith would go in the final round.

    If Boqvist is passed up in the first, I'd happily pick him up again - he does have the opportunity to hit big as you said.
    9 Team Points Only Dynasty - 27 Player Roster (17 Keepers) - 12 F, 6 D, 2 UTL, 2 G, 5 Bench - 2.5G, 2A, 1PP, 2SHG, 1SHA, 3W, 2SO, 1OTL, 0.05SV

    F: J Robertson, Huberdeau, Rantanen, Aho, Kaprizov, Scheifele, Connor, DeBrincat, Cozens, Ehlers, Toffoli, Kopitar, Trocheck, Schmaltz, W Johnston, Teravainen, J Quinn
    D: Dahlin, Werenski, M Rielly, S Jones, McCavoy, Gustafsson
    G: Shesterkin, Bobrovsky

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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    Quote Originally Posted by JSquared View Post
    Really love the straight-forward and honest feedback and thoughts. I recognize that I asked for advice for the quickest route to win. @Stevegamer, would your response change if I was looking at a 2-3 year window to win and not make such a large leap (wishful large leap) in one season?
    Not regarding BTkachuk. Check out the various ramblings covering him in-depth. I think he's got high end upside, even in points only; admittedly in multi-cat he has top 5 player overall upside. I think if you drop him, he may go far earlier than you think - I'd be willing to take him before everyone not named LaFreniere of the rookies, and if I had the 1st pick, I'd move down to 2 for a nice plus.

    Nor would it change regarding the older guys who aren't far into their careers.

    Might change regarding BPA, and move towards BPA with solid trade value. Based on your goalie comment, I definitely toss Samsonov back over Kakko, or Boqvist for BTkachuk. BTkachuk is a 1st round pick almost certainly. Samsonov almost certainly isn't.

    So the points next to categories are how much much each category is worth?
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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    Tkachuk over the cat, Dumba over Boqvist


    Kreider
    Palmieri
    Gusev
    Francouz
    DeBrincat
    Necas
    Buchnevich
    Pulock
    Beauvillier

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    Default Re: Draft Game Plan - Rebuild

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    Not regarding BTkachuk. Check out the various ramblings covering him in-depth. I think he's got high end upside, even in points only; admittedly in multi-cat he has top 5 player overall upside. I think if you drop him, he may go far earlier than you think - I'd be willing to take him before everyone not named LaFreniere of the rookies, and if I had the 1st pick, I'd move down to 2 for a nice plus.

    Nor would it change regarding the older guys who aren't far into their careers.

    Might change regarding BPA, and move towards BPA with solid trade value. Based on your goalie comment, I definitely toss Samsonov back over Kakko, or Boqvist for BTkachuk. BTkachuk is a 1st round pick almost certainly. Samsonov almost certainly isn't.

    So the points next to categories are how much much each category is worth?
    Yes, the points next to the category are the scoring value.

    I see your line of thinking and have me leaning towards keeping one G. Samsonov would be available later so I could still grab him and someone like Lehner in early-mid rounds.

    This year I have 2 first round picks out of 8, 3 picks in the top 15, and 6 of the first 30 picks. I'll pick 3 more from the last 42 players. Most selections (considering 144 keepers) are FWDs who get 50-65 points and DEFs who get 25-35 points. A player like Beauvillier, based on his play-in round, would be selected earlier than Killorn or Gusev despite their stronger regular season play. Killorn and Gusev would be selected in middle rounds rather than the first 3.
    9 Team Points Only Dynasty - 27 Player Roster (17 Keepers) - 12 F, 6 D, 2 UTL, 2 G, 5 Bench - 2.5G, 2A, 1PP, 2SHG, 1SHA, 3W, 2SO, 1OTL, 0.05SV

    F: J Robertson, Huberdeau, Rantanen, Aho, Kaprizov, Scheifele, Connor, DeBrincat, Cozens, Ehlers, Toffoli, Kopitar, Trocheck, Schmaltz, W Johnston, Teravainen, J Quinn
    D: Dahlin, Werenski, M Rielly, S Jones, McCavoy, Gustafsson
    G: Shesterkin, Bobrovsky

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