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Thread: Draft Strategy

  1. #1
    Locke's Avatar
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    Default Draft Strategy

    It's a H2H league counting G, A, P, +/-, PPP, PIM, Hits, Sog, Fow, Blocks, W, Sv%, Gaa, Saves
    Starting 3/3/3/5/2G, and keeping 10 players where at least three of them are prospects (Prospect = skater < 201 gp; goalie < 101 gp)

    I retooled a bit last year and have a young team.

    Likely keeping: Larkin, Meier, Svechnikov, Rantanen, Rielly, Shesterkin, Bjorkstrand, Tarasenko, One of: Merzlikins/Jarry, One of: Fox/Mantha/Cirelli

    I've got the 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 13th overall picks. Despite pretty good odds at a top two pick it wasn't to be.

    Draft is for dropped players and new draftees. Obviously without knowing who is going to be available it's hard to weigh in on who to select with each pick.

    However, I've got three questions that might be answerable:

    First, with a young set of keepers, but this many high picks, should I just go bpa and stock up for a run next year?

    Second, how would you rank Sororkin and Kaprisov against the incoming draft class?

    Third, how about Hayton, Necas and R. Thomas against the incoming draft class?

    Thanks!
    Yahoo 12-team H2H partial keeper league (keep 7 vets + 3 prospects (p = skater <201 gp; goalie < 101gp))

    G,A,P,PIM,+/-,PPP,SOG,FW,hits, blocks, W,GAA,SV%,Saves
    Start 3/3/3/5/2

    C: Kopitar, P. Suter, Carlsson (p), Lundell (p), Norris
    LW: B. Tkachuk, Stutzle (c), Colton (c), Ehlers
    RW: Rantanen, Caufield (lw), Svechnikov (lw), Foegele (lw)
    D: Dahlin, Andersson, Chychrun, Montour, Sanheim, Matheson, Faber (p)
    G: Talbot, Forsberg, Daws (p), Wolf (p, NA)
    IR: Fantilli, Sergachev, Jeannot, Ingram
    NA: Levi

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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    I know you didn't ask, but shop Jarry/Merz and take the best return, keep the other - they're close to equivalent. I like Mantha as your last keeper.

    1. Always go BPA. If you aim to try and win this year (without being silly and over-buying) then you open your window now, and it can stay open for a while with the foundation you have.

    2. Laf, Byfield, Kaprizov, Sorokin, the rest.

    3. I mix Thomas/Necas/Hayton (in that order) in with the 3-7 range including Stutzle, Rossi, Raymond, and Perfetti. Though I'm sure there are some other players worthy of drafting there too, such as Fox, Cirelli (a touch below some of the others we have mentioned), and Merz/Jarry (equivalent to Sorokin) if you let one go.
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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    I'd still go for the Rossi/Stutzle/Perfettti types with your picks. Kaprizov too; he'd be pretty damn high. Necas and Thomas as well. Young players are making an impact much sooner these days. Not big on Hayton in the desert. I'd look at Askarov too as you need help in the pipes.

    I'd keep Fox out of that group; Merzlikins probably too. Jarry has shown flashes but not sold and Pit it not gonna be good much longer. I don't love Elvis but he's my pick here.

    With all that young talent you could be set for a long time; don't think you are ready to win yet...

    My 2 cents without knowing the intricacies of your league anyways...

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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    1. Yes, BPA. In a 12-team league (assuming), you aren't strong enough to compete.

    2. Kaprizov is DEFINITELY (IMO) a better pick than any of the 2020 kids at #3 and beyond (Stutzle, etc.). It's debatable btw him & Byfield with a #2 pick. You take whoever is left at #3. If, for some reason, some OTHER player goes at #2, I take Byfield - who should be GREAT in multi-cat like this with FOW. Sorokin is not in the picture. You've got a 10/4 category split with skaters & goalies. You win H2H leagues by winning half cats in playoffs. +/- is a crapshoot weekly, so think of it as a 9/4 split, if you take 7 categories, you win playoffs and move on. You win 7 cats by having a GREAT scoring skater team, taking G,A,P,PPP,SOG,FOW,HIT. Do.not.stress.about.goalies. Do that AFTER you have an incredible skater squad.

    3. I love ALL of Hayton, Necas, and R.Thomas... I put all of those guys ahead of Stutzle, because they are "sure things", I think, at this point in their development. Personally, I value them as R.Thomas, Hayton, Necas... in that order. BUT... all three of them are more cerebral (i.e. NOT highlight reel) player - and so casual fantasy hockey fans haven't seen it, won't see it, in those guys... and they may slide on redraft day. I'd personally grab them as 3.Byfield*/Kaprizov**, 4.Stutzle***, 6.Thomas, 9.Hayton, 10.(A 2020 prospect, there will be one or Rossi/Perfetti/Raymond left), 11.Askarov (because he will be a keeper PROSPECT for a while), 13.Necas

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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    That's a promising set of keeper!

    Kaprizov: I'd consider taking him at 4th, without knowing the other dropped players available my top 4 would be : Lafreniere, Byfield, Mantha/Fox, Kaprizov
    Sorokin : Since you already own Shesty & Merzlikins/Jarry, I wouldn't pick him in the top 10 nor before the top non-keepers
    Necas : I'd say he's in the Stutzle, Rossi, Raymond, etc.. class. Since he's NHL ready, I'd draft him before them.
    Thomas : same as Necas, but I prefer Necas in your format.
    Hayton: After this year top 7-8 and the top non-keepers

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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    1) Always take BPA!

    2) I would be taking Kaprizov at 2 if he was available in this year's draft. I don't necessarily think he's going to be better than Byfield but he will Kaprizov will be in the NHL next season and Byfield may not be. This should increase Kaprizov's value over Byfield in the next few months. Sorokin would be closer to the 20-25 range.

    3) Necas and Thomas would be in the 10 - 15 range, Hayton in the 20 - 30 range.

  7. #7
    Locke's Avatar
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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    Thanks all. Really appreciate the opinions on Sorokin, Kaprizov, etc.

    It is a 12 team league.

    Saying BPA was a bit imprecise. What I meant was should I skip potential, and focus on trying to win next year with that many 1st round picks and no top two pick.

    In other words, draft for next year production primarily and eschew 2020 draftees. Could do that and still try to grab guys like Fox and/or Kaprisov who are likely to help to some extent or another next year while also having high ceilings. Focus on Necas, Thomas etc etc over Raymond, Rossi, Stutzle etc. later in the draft.

    The question is pretty hard to answer without knowing the quality of drops. I expect I'll post again post keeper lock.

    For context, last year's 1st round went:
    J. Hughes, Kakko, Bergeron, Barrie, Bishop, Trouba, Stone, Monahan, Makar, Gusev, Radulov, Teravainen. Team taking Bergeron ended up winning the league.
    Yahoo 12-team H2H partial keeper league (keep 7 vets + 3 prospects (p = skater <201 gp; goalie < 101gp))

    G,A,P,PIM,+/-,PPP,SOG,FW,hits, blocks, W,GAA,SV%,Saves
    Start 3/3/3/5/2

    C: Kopitar, P. Suter, Carlsson (p), Lundell (p), Norris
    LW: B. Tkachuk, Stutzle (c), Colton (c), Ehlers
    RW: Rantanen, Caufield (lw), Svechnikov (lw), Foegele (lw)
    D: Dahlin, Andersson, Chychrun, Montour, Sanheim, Matheson, Faber (p)
    G: Talbot, Forsberg, Daws (p), Wolf (p, NA)
    IR: Fantilli, Sergachev, Jeannot, Ingram
    NA: Levi

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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    Yeah, I think in a12 team league I would rather the Karlprizovs and the Foxs than the Stutzles and the Drysdales.
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  9. #9
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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    My strategy is always focusing on winning the current season until you realize that won't be possible. That's when you start building for next year. Never plan to tank a season as it's just not worth it in most fantasy leagues. The ability to make so many trades makes a long rebuilding strategy pointless.

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    Default Re: Draft Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by Locke View Post

    However, I've got three questions that might be answerable:

    First, with a young set of keepers, but this many high picks, should I just go bpa and stock up for a run next year?
    Unless you are picking a player who may dislodge one of your keepers, I wouldn't put too much thought into long-term value. Would very much look at these picks as one-year picks. You maybe look at 2-3 year value for players who'd qualify for prospect status for multiple years, but that also would mean dislodging Merzlikins/Shesterkin/Fox from your prospects list which would be no small feat. So yes, very much BPA with these picks.

    Second, how would you rank Sororkin and Kaprisov against the incoming draft class?
    Well above the incoming class. You typically don't see many prospects making the leap at 18. Lafreniere will, but Byfield and Stutzle in the running for #2 are much less likely to play or make an impact if they do. I'd WAY rather have the guys who have played pro at a high level and are at an age where they are in peak form. Are Sorokin and Kaprizov your best options as far as the BPA strategy from Q1? Would depend on who is available, but they'd be better than drafting a Stutzle or Raymond or Drysdale, or basically any non-Lafreniere pick. And you could even argue for Sorokin or Kaprizov over Lafreniere from a one-year perspective.

    I'd also consider avoiding Sorokin because you are already sitting pretty for goalies with Shesterkin and Merzlikins. In a 12-team league you are going to be able to draft goalies later and you already have 2, so the positional value isn't necessarily there.

    Third, how about Hayton, Necas and R. Thomas against the incoming draft class?
    Similar to above, these guys are way farther along than the 2020 draft class of which we may only see 1 player make the leap next season. There's also a chance, though unlikely, one of these guys pops and breaks into your keepers. They are of the right age. But I'd be focused on more established players. In particular, I see a hole on your roster with regard to wing eligible players who win faceoffs. This is a Yahoo league so multi-position players are ubiquitous, and yet you don't have one high FOW winger in your bunch. In fact, you've got a couple of multi-cat allergic options like Tarasenko and Bjorkstrand whom I'd be looking to move off of.
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