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Thread: How early is too early to pick Askarov in fantasy draft?

  1. #31
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    Default Re: How early is too early to pick Askarov in fantasy draft?

    if you need a goalie that bad, 9th isn't too early. Just be prepared to wait a few yrs before you get the payoff

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    Default Re: How early is too early to pick Askarov in fantasy draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post

    1. I referenced the poor performance of the 2014 goalies... which is 5 years ago, and 6 drafts back is usually enough to qualify most players as bust... that's why I went back that far.
    2. Recent trends in the NHL are important, those farther back are less important. Teams aren't drafting Samuel Morin near the top 10 any more... are they?
    3. Of COURSE, not many goalies from the past 4 years have played. That's called posting information for "trending". It shows how/when goalies are likely to arrive as NHL starters, which is about 3-4 years... which I think I referenced in my post. No?
    4. re: Parsons. The Flames have had several young goalies they've been hoping would pan out, and they give them development time. Last year they've still got Gillies (26) in the AHL. And they want to find out about Zagidulin (24), who they signed from Russian in Mar19. And so now, to try to get Parsons (age... wait for it... 22) confidence back after ONE bad season in the AHL, 2018-2019... so the only place for Parsons was the ECHL. UPL (BUF) was also in the ECHL last year, as BUF was in the same situation. It doesn't mean that UPL doesn't stand a chance to be a future #1. Binnington spent a whole season in the ECHL. He seems OK. Starts are critical for a young goalie, so if he's not going to get half+ starts, put him in a league where he can. I get the ECHL knock for skaters... but for goalies... it's playing time when the AHL might have 2G for the club. (btw. the other ECHL goalie, Schneider is older, 23, and had poorer stats... so calling Parsons the "backup" is subjective only to him getting less starts - which is a coach's decision. It's a fairly misleading reference.)

    Picking singular flaws (like a Parsons eval) in a long-post is a weak-man's debate move.
    You are better than that.
    I apologize for offending you. I was not trying to do that with my response. I was just pointing out a difference in what you were saying and what has happened in the past.

    Lots of good NHL goalies start their pro careers in the ECHL but I can't think of one of them who went to the ECHL after playing a full season in the AHL.

    I pointed out the singular flaw in Parsons because it was the most egregious of your predictions. The error that I should have pointed out was that you list 9 of the 14 goalies drafted in the first 2 rounds as likely NHL starters. Reality is that only 2 of them were the starter for their team last season and one of those may not be the starter next year as the goalie with the bigger contract may be healthy for the first time in 2 seasons. Historical numbers (ie from the previous 5 NHL drafts) show that only 2 of the 24 goalies drafted in the first 2 rounds 5 - 10 years previously became NHL starting goalies. 4 of the 24 are currently NHL backups. That's 6 of 24 goalies chosen in the first 2 rounds that ever became actual NHL goalies.

    Those are the real numbers. If you like a 10% chance of drafting an NHL starter and then having to wait at least 3 years before they get to the NHL, then go ahead and draft a goalie early. If you don't like those odds, then draft a skater.

  3. #33
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    Default Re: How early is too early to pick Askarov in fantasy draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I would not pick him in the top 20. There's no point wasting a high pick on a guy that won't help your team for at least 3 years. There's too high of a chance that your league no longer exists by then.

    With that said, he went at #6 in my keeper league.
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  4. #34
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    Default Re: How early is too early to pick Askarov in fantasy draft?

    Are there any teams choosing in the top 10-12 that you can see making Askarov the starter in the next 3-4 seasons?
    'To be is to do' - Socrates....'To do is to be '- Sartre..........
    'To do be do be do' - Sinatra.

    15 Team Keeper League - 20 roster spots (4C 4L 4R 6D 2G)
    Point Categories - G A +/- PIMS GAA SV%
    Protect 13-15 *$80 Team cap

    C - Bergeron, Zibanejad,
    L - Connor, Marchand, Olofsson
    R - Nylander, Wheeler, Gallagher, Rust
    D - Carlson, Josi, Nurse
    G - Vasilevskiy

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    Default Re: How early is too early to pick Askarov in fantasy draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lindros88 View Post
    It depends on league makeup for sure and how goalies are valued. In my 14t dynasty, young goalies are worth their weight in gold prior to ever playing an NHL game because everyone wants that next Vasilevskiy. Plus we are a cap league, so that possible elite goaltender on an ELC is the unicorn of the league.

    The league has been around 12yrs and the last, say, 7 GMs ha e been drafting/signing young goalies with that hope for upside. There are no goalies on the waiver wire (except Keith Kinkaid) and all depth charts are basically owned, so drafting/trading is the only way to get that next guy. You can use it to your advantage and get a haul for the goalie by sending him out.

    That being said, because of this, I can see Askarov going in the top 6 of my dynasty. My other league however puts far less emphasis on goaltending, and I could see him going maybe 15-20.

    So league makeup definitely has some affect on where to take Askarov in your league.
    Well said, and hits on my point of while these forums are amazing, and getting opinions from other fantasy hockey lovers really does help, nobody knows the intricacies of your pool. The types of GM's, the way values are set up, and the trends that make your pool unique. My keeper league is heading into its 19th season, and like yours, goaltending is very important, and getting a young guy, who can turn into a starter is very valuable.
    'To be is to do' - Socrates....'To do is to be '- Sartre..........
    'To do be do be do' - Sinatra.

    15 Team Keeper League - 20 roster spots (4C 4L 4R 6D 2G)
    Point Categories - G A +/- PIMS GAA SV%
    Protect 13-15 *$80 Team cap

    C - Bergeron, Zibanejad,
    L - Connor, Marchand, Olofsson
    R - Nylander, Wheeler, Gallagher, Rust
    D - Carlson, Josi, Nurse
    G - Vasilevskiy

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    Default Re: How early is too early to pick Askarov in fantasy draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by Puckhead View Post
    Are there any teams choosing in the top 10-12 that you can see making Askarov the starter in the next 3-4 seasons?
    Sure. Any of the non-Anaheim teams not in the play-in. Add in Edmonton, and maybe Minnesota.

    I doubt that any of Florida, Winnipeg, Nashville or the Rangers would be planning that.
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