How early is too early to pick Askarov in fantasy draft?

[HonkyTonkMan]

hymm i have 11 including askarov ...wonder who is that one guy ... im sure rest are the same

Ha! Personally, I go for boom or bust so I'd say in no particular order:

Laf
Byfield
Stutzle
Rossi
Perfetti
Raymond
Holtz
Drysdale
Sanderson
Quinn
Jarvis
Askarov

[HonkyTonkMan]

Ha! Personally, I go for boom or bust so I'd say in no particular order:

Laf
Byfield
Stutzle
Rossi
Perfetti
Raymond
Holtz
Drysdale
Sanderson
Quinn
Jarvis
Askarov

so it's probably Seth Jarvis?

[Eskimo Brother]

so it's probably Seth Jarvis?

I think it was both Quinn and Jarvis, with Lundell taken out.

[HonkyTonkMan]

I think it was both Quinn and Jarvis, with Lundell taken out.

No one knows what will happen, I just tend to go highest offensive potential. Full disclaimer I've never seen a second of Lundell, just know he's projected as a 2 way guy, hence he got bumped down. Lundell could be the best player out of this draft, who knows.

[Belexus75]

I think it was both Quinn and Jarvis, with Lundell taken out.

actually it was Sanderson. I dont think Lundell will develop into fantasy Stud....Quinn is very high on my list my top 7 are just like you listed but not exactly in that order

[Eskimo Brother]

No one knows what will happen, I just tend to go highest offensive potential. Full disclaimer I've never seen a second of Lundell, just know he's projected as a 2 way guy, hence he got bumped down. Lundell could be the best player out of this draft, who knows.

Just because a player is said to have some two-way accumen doesn't mean they aren't also offensively talented. I've seen some things to really like out of Lundell in the offensive zone.

[HonkyTonkMan]

Just because a player is said to have some two-way accumen doesn't mean they aren't also offensively talented. I've seen some things to really like out of Lundell in the offensive zone.

Like I said I haven't seen him play, but he's obviouslyhighly ranked for a reason. I tend to be biased as well towards CHL players, usually because I have seen alot of them play.

[Eskimo Brother]

Like I said I haven't seen him play, but he's obviouslyhighly ranked for a reason. I tend to be biased as well towards CHL players, usually because I have seen alot of them play.

Completely fair and definitely good that you're aware of your biases. I tend to draft a little OHL heavy, and it's served me well so far, but if Lundell slips at all I'm going to be happy to snap him up!

[Pengwin7]

I have a 2, 6, 11 pick in one league... and Askarov is squarely in my 8-12 group.
It's a 50/50 shot that I take him when the #11 pick comes up.
Goalies ARE a long wait... but if a league is solid, the value will come - especially if goalie value is "true".

The last three Russian-hype goalies: Samsonov, Shesterkin, Sorokin, have all come to solid fruition and seem to be the future #1 goalies on their teams.
I'd even say that most hyped goalies from past 5 years have panned out, maybe with exception to Thatcher Demko. (FWIW, all five of the 2nd round goalies in the 2014 draft have underperformed expectations)


A look back at first/second round picks of last 5 drafts:

2015 #22 Samsonov. WAS #1 of future (and now?)
2015 #42 Blackwood. NJ #1 of future and now
2016 #48 Carter Hart. PHI #1 of future and now
2016 #54 T.Parsons. CGY #1 of future?
2016 #55 Gustavsson. OTT (draft PIT), #1 of future?
2016 #59 Fitzpatrick (STL) - unlikely #1 future.
2017 #26 Oettinger. DAL #1 of future
2017 #54. Luukkonen. BUF #1 of future?
2018 #39. Lindblom. NYR - ???
2018 #62. Rodrigue. EDM prospect - ???
2019 #13. Knight. FLA #1 of future
2019 #36. Kochetkov. CAR #1 of future
2019 #37. Sogaard. OTT #1b (vs. Gustavsson) of future
2019 #59. H.Jones. MIN #1b (vs. Kahkoken) of future

It can be seen that even the best goalies are a 3-4 year wait... for them to reach #1 goalie status on an NHL team.
So whether a league will be around... is a worthwhile consideration.
(Although - if one feels a league won't be around... then why are you in it!?! LOL)

[HonkyTonkMan]

Completely fair and definitely good that you're aware of your biases. I tend to draft a little OHL heavy, and it's served me well so far, but if Lundell slips at all I'm going to be happy to snap him up!

I know what I don't know for sure! No doubt I am biased. Most often it's worked for me, but I've definitely missed on a few Euro prospects.

I go to alot of OHL games so I like to know what I'm drafting. Someone like Stutzle though, you really don't have to see. It's tough when a Euro is ranked real high but had like 6 points in 25 games.

[chuckcouples]

I have a 2, 6, 11 pick in one league... and Askarov is squarely in my 8-12 group.
It's a 50/50 shot that I take him when the #11 pick comes up.
Goalies ARE a long wait... but if a league is solid, the value will come - especially if goalie value is "true".

The last three Russian-hype goalies: Samsonov, Shesterkin, Sorokin, have all come to solid fruition and seem to be the future #1 goalies on their teams.
I'd even say that most hyped goalies from past 5 years have panned out, maybe with exception to Thatcher Demko. (FWIW, all five of the 2nd round goalies in the 2014 draft have underperformed expectations)


A look back at first/second round picks of last 5 drafts:

2015 #22 Samsonov. WAS #1 of future (and now?)
2015 #42 Blackwood. NJ #1 of future and now
2016 #48 Carter Hart. PHI #1 of future and now
2016 #54 T.Parsons. CGY #1 of future?
2016 #55 Gustavsson. OTT (draft PIT), #1 of future?
2016 #59 Fitzpatrick (STL) - unlikely #1 future.
2017 #26 Oettinger. DAL #1 of future
2017 #54. Luukkonen. BUF #1 of future?
2018 #39. Lindblom. NYR - ???
2018 #62. Rodrigue. EDM prospect - ???
2019 #13. Knight. FLA #1 of future
2019 #36. Kochetkov. CAR #1 of future
2019 #37. Sogaard. OTT #1b (vs. Gustavsson) of future
2019 #59. H.Jones. MIN #1b (vs. Kahkoken) of future

It can be seen that even the best goalies are a 3-4 year wait... for them to reach #1 goalie status on an NHL team.
So whether a league will be around... is a worthwhile consideration.
(Although - if one feels a league won't be around... then why are you in it!?! LOL)

Why would you use the past 5 years for this when only 1 goalie taken in the past 4 drafts has even played in the NHL? Also, Tyler Parsons CGY #1 of the future??? He was a back up goalie in the ECHL this season.

If you look back a bit further at goalies taken in the first two rounds, you see the problem with drafting goalies early. Here are the goalies taken in the first two rounds in the 5 years before this.

2014 - Mason McDonald, Thatcher Demko, Alex Nedeljkovic, Vitek Vanecek, Brandon Halverson - 2 of them played a game in the NHL this year 5 full seasons after they were drafted
2013 - Zach Fucale, Tristan Jarry, Phillipe Desrosiers, Eric Comrie, - 1 of them played in the NHL
2012 - Andrei Vasilevski, Malcolm Subban, Oscar Dansk, Anthony Stolarz - they all played at least a game in the NHL but only two are NHL goalies 8 years after they were drafted (and Subban probably won't be an NHL goalie next year)
2011 - Magnus Hellberg, John Gibson, Chris Gibson - 1 is an NHL goalie 9 years later
2010 - Jack Campbell, Mark Visentin, Calvin Pickard, Kent Simpson - 1 NHL backup goalie 10 years after the draft

Bottom line is that sometimes the high end goalies pan out 3 or 4 years later but most of the time they don't so there is no point in waiting that long on a big question mark.

[Eskimo Brother]

I think the past 5 years was used because of the assumption that scouting and goalie development is getting a bit better. The whole ten year window is probably the best sample size though.

[Pengwin7]

Why would you use the past 5 years for this when only 1 goalie taken in the past 4 drafts has even played in the NHL? Also, Tyler Parsons CGY #1 of the future??? He was a back up goalie in the ECHL this season.

That's quite an off-putting post.

1. I referenced the poor performance of the 2014 goalies... which is 5 years ago, and 6 drafts back is usually enough to qualify most players as bust... that's why I went back that far.
2. Recent trends in the NHL are important, those farther back are less important. Teams aren't drafting Samuel Morin near the top 10 any more... are they?
3. Of COURSE, not many goalies from the past 4 years have played. That's called posting information for "trending". It shows how/when goalies are likely to arrive as NHL starters, which is about 3-4 years... which I think I referenced in my post. No?
4. re: Parsons. The Flames have had several young goalies they've been hoping would pan out, and they give them development time. Last year they've still got Gillies (26) in the AHL. And they want to find out about Zagidulin (24), who they signed from Russian in Mar19. And so now, to try to get Parsons (age... wait for it... 22) confidence back after ONE bad season in the AHL, 2018-2019... so the only place for Parsons was the ECHL. UPL (BUF) was also in the ECHL last year, as BUF was in the same situation. It doesn't mean that UPL doesn't stand a chance to be a future #1. Binnington spent a whole season in the ECHL. He seems OK. Starts are critical for a young goalie, so if he's not going to get half+ starts, put him in a league where he can. I get the ECHL knock for skaters... but for goalies... it's playing time when the AHL might have 2G for the club. (btw. the other ECHL goalie, Schneider is older, 23, and had poorer stats... so calling Parsons the "backup" is subjective only to him getting less starts - which is a coach's decision. It's a fairly misleading reference.)

Picking singular flaws (like a Parsons eval) in a long-post is a weak-man's debate move.
You are better than that.

[Daydream Nation]

Since goalies account for 33% of your scoring and goalies are only 10% of your starters, it not crazy to take him #2 if you feel that strongly about him. Roughly, a starting goalie is responsible for 17% of your scoring while each skater is accountable about 4%.

[stevegamer]

Since you have 4 years for a skater versus 5 for a goalie, there's a little extra incentive to take a goalie, since you have 1 extra year of control. And your scoring is goalie heavy.

I've determined that I am a guy who drafts goalies late in rookie drafts if at all, but I've only being doing deep dynasty for a few years. So , while I wouldn't mind taking a goalie, I'd prefer to use a a later pick so that I get a little more certainty with the earlier pick. I realize skaters bust often as well, but they seem to have a shorter wait, and you can get more information faster.

I'd be more likely to try and deal that pick for a guy like Elvis or Blackwood than use it on Askarov, but that may not be possible.