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Thread: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

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    Default Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    League in my sig

    I just traded Aho, Good Svechnikov, Deangelo, 25th overall this year and my 2023 1st for McDavid and Morissey. Felt steep in a dynasty but gives me an opportunity to pair McDavid and Draisaitl on a roster that is now top heavy enough to win any given matchup. Thoughts?
    16 GM Dynasty
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    W(4), L(-2), SO(4), Sv(0.2), GA(-1)

    F: A. Svechnikov, R. Thomas, N. Suzuki, Pastrnak, Boldy, J. Robertson, J. Hughes, Frost, Tolvanen, Drouin, Heinen, Gallagher, N. Ritchie, Wood, Poehling, Podkolzin

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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    its a lot but its not horrible..as i said in another post i traded Mcdavid 2 weeks ago or so for Makar, M tkachuk and Fiala in deep multicat...i was happy with return...
    14 Teams H2H Dynasty, 28 roster spots (8 bench), 15 minors under 100
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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    It is a lot but not crazy. Think I would prefer the package but I see the other side. Not sure why pairing McDavid and Draisaitl is advantageous. In a 16-team league isn't depth more valuable?
    10 Team, 60 Player Roster
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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    Quote Originally Posted by SergeP View Post
    NOT the league in my sig but a 16 team H2h-points Dynasty with identical roster and scoring set up.

    I just traded Aho, Good Svechnikov, Deangelo, 25th overall this year and my 2023 1st for McDavid and Morissey. Felt steep in a dynasty but gives me an opportunity to pair McDavid and Draisaitl on a roster that is now top heavy enough to win any given matchup. Thoughts?
    You got the best player in the world; it's very hard to call anything to get him "overpaying". You gave up alot but boy is your team stacked now

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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    For a moment I was confused who "Good" was - then I realized it was an adjective, not a name. Seems reasonable for both sides.
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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    Considering McDavid hasn't even reached his prime years yet, anyone acquiring McDavid will be overpaying to get him. This looks like an overpayment but thats what it takes. In the end, you still got the best player in the deal.
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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    You paid a fair price and I don't think you will regret that whatsoever. We'll see what happens but Morissey could swing this even more in your favour, that's just the gravy though, you now have the meat and potatoes!
    14 Team Roto; Keep 25; 12 F, 6 D, 2 G; 10 Farm; 5 Bench; 5 IR;

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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    I don't mind that at all to be honest.. You got McDavid, now sit back and enjoy!! You have a really nice team there!!
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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    I like your side of that deal.

    McDavid/Necas/ Kucherov/Bjorkstrand/Rust/Nugent Hopkins/Cirelli/Zegras/- Letang/Morrissey/Dahlin - Swayman/Saros/Skinner

    Prospects include:
    McTavish/Clarke/Bordeleau
    Dumais/Korchinski/Hutson

    Don't worry I'm not going to say anything more than I have to. If that.

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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    I think this is a great deal for you. Not too many chances come along to get the best player on the planet when he's still in his ealy 20's - the pieces you lost are good but are a lot more replaceable than McDavid.
    12 Team Keep 6: G/A:1 W/SO:2
    C - McDavid, Matthews, Schiefele
    LW - Draisaitl, Fiala, Meier
    RW - ​​Marner, Barzal, Zuccarello
    D - Dahlin, Morrissey, Dunn, Matheson
    G - Skinner
    B - Marchessault, Caufield, Teravainen, McCann, Montour, Jones, Saros

    12 Team Keep 10 (& 5 Minors)
    : G/A/OTL:1 W:2 SO:3
    '24 Picks (16 Rounds) - 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3,3,5,5,6,6
    F - ​McDavid, Rantanen, Point, Aho, Nylander, M. Tkachuk, Guentzel, MacKinnon, Pavelski, Duchene, Farabee, Henrique
    D - Bouchard, Dobson, Matheson, Andersson, Letang
    G - Vasilevskiy, Markstrom
    B - Joseph, Schenn, Nyqvist, Roslovic, Duclair, S. Jones, Korpisalo, Quick, Rittich
    M - Cooley, Michkov, Rossi, Hutson, Mateychuk

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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    Considering McDavid hasn't even reached his prime years yet,
    Are we sure about that? I don't have a comprehensive study, but I think that truly elite, elite talents tend to peak very early.

    Gretzky's goals and points highs were in his age 21 season. (Age seasons per hockey-reference.com)
    Lemieux's were in his age 23 season.
    Ovechkin was age 22.
    Crosby's points were age 19, goals were age 22.

    McDavid has already had his age 23 season.

    There are going to be many examples of other high-end guys who didn't hit career highs until later (e.g., Patrick Kane's points high at age 30). There might not be a true statistical basis for the theory, I admit. But the performance of comparable can't-miss, mega-elite talents suggests that McDavid might not have another level to get to. Hitting 1.5 ppg might be the apex. Of course, being mega-elite means that his tail of production is very likely going to be long and chock full of production. Something to think about.

    Some other #1s and other high end guys for comparison

    Stamkos goals at 21, points at 28 (beating his age 21 season by a single point)
    Tavares both at age 28
    Kovalchuk goals at 20, points at 22
    LeCavalier both at 26
    Sundin both at 21
    Modano both at 23
    Jagr both at 23
    Forsberg both at 22
    Sakic goals at 31, points at 26
    Yzerman both at 23
    Thornton goals at 21, points at 26

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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    I think the Aho/Svech/Deangelo team comes out solidly ahead... but if your team is "high end"... then it's easier to fill up the end spots.

    Here's how it might shake out.
    16 team league starting 12F/6D.
    196F in play... so your average waiver/#12F might be a 40pt forward.
    96D in play... so your average waiver/#6D might be a 20pt defenseman.

    It's more of a 4-for-4 trade:

    SIDE A
    McDavid: 110pts
    ScrubF: 40pts
    ScrubF: 40pts
    Morrissey: 40pts
    -------
    230pts total for 3F/1D "McDavid side"


    SIDE B:
    Aho: 80pts
    Svech: 75pts
    Future #16: 55pts (avg. longterm point output of a #16 overall pick, assuming your team finishes 1st in 2022-2023)
    TonyD: 50pts
    ---
    260pts total for 3F/1D "Aho/Svech side"

    People can also put their own numbers on all these players - but this IS the math... it's a 4v4 trade comparison.
    So... that's a win for the Aho/Svech/TonyD/#16overall in 2023.


    Now - for the McDavid side... the upside is that you have skill to slowly better-up that #11F, #12F.
    Let's say you are a keen GM and you can find gems on the waiver... if you find a 50pt F, 50pt F... then you've increased your side up to 250pts.
    If McDavid pops off for 120pts a year... you are now up to 260pts and it's a pretty level trade.
    That's very possible... and it's upping the value of those final (I call them "scrub") spots that allow the "best player"-side to emerge as a winner... long-term.

    So... it can get close.
    But a 16team, 12F/6D dynasty is a lot of players... and getting 3 stars (TonyD is/will be solid going forward) and a middle-teen pick in 2023 is a really good rake on McDavid.

    [*This... is a LOT of math.... which is why people are usually quick to just say "McDavid side wins"... nuh-unh... not so... if it was a 12-team 9F/5D league... probably... but not 16-team 12F/6D league...]

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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I think the Aho/Svech/Deangelo team comes out solidly ahead... but if your team is "high end"... then it's easier to fill up the end spots.

    Here's how it might shake out.
    16 team league starting 12F/6D.
    196F in play... so your average waiver/#12F might be a 40pt forward.
    96D in play... so your average waiver/#6D might be a 20pt defenseman.

    It's more of a 4-for-4 trade:

    SIDE A
    McDavid: 110pts
    ScrubF: 40pts
    ScrubF: 40pts
    Morrissey: 40pts
    -------
    230pts total for 3F/1D "McDavid side"


    SIDE B:
    Aho: 80pts
    Svech: 75pts
    Future #16: 55pts (avg. longterm point output of a #16 overall pick, assuming your team finishes 1st in 2022-2023)
    TonyD: 50pts
    ---
    260pts total for 3F/1D "Aho/Svech side"

    People can also put their own numbers on all these players - but this IS the math... it's a 4v4 trade comparison.
    So... that's a win for the Aho/Svech/TonyD/#16overall in 2023.


    Now - for the McDavid side... the upside is that you have skill to slowly better-up that #11F, #12F.
    Let's say you are a keen GM and you can find gems on the waiver... if you find a 50pt F, 50pt F... then you've increased your side up to 250pts.
    If McDavid pops off for 120pts a year... you are now up to 260pts and it's a pretty level trade.
    That's very possible... and it's upping the value of those final (I call them "scrub") spots that allow the "best player"-side to emerge as a winner... long-term.

    So... it can get close.
    But a 16team, 12F/6D dynasty is a lot of players... and getting 3 stars (TonyD is/will be solid going forward) and a middle-teen pick in 2023 is a really good rake on McDavid.

    [*This... is a LOT of math.... which is why people are usually quick to just say "McDavid side wins"... nuh-unh... not so... if it was a 12-team 9F/5D league... probably... but not 16-team 12F/6D league...]
    I don't disagree with your math and I went through the same exercise while debating the trade. This deal was not an easy accept but I ultimately gambled on my ability to fill the void this trade creates by nailing a pick-up or two and/or a future trade. It also helps that I believe McDavid has another gear to him

    I tried very hard to make the trade McDavid for Aho/Svech + picks but the other GM insisted on my including Makar (he was including Sergachev), which was a hard no from me. We ultimately settled on TonyD + the picks for Morrissey instead of Makar/Sergachev. I think Morrissey has a similar ceiling to TonyD, maybe a hair lower, but with less competition.

    Because guys who are over 30 are considered to be "over the hill" by many in this league, I figured I'll be able to acquire some depth options next season for relatively cheap and come out ahead here in the long run. It's a gamble but the way I see it, worst case scenario, this trade lowers my floor but raises my ceiling on any given week.
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    W(4), L(-2), SO(4), Sv(0.2), GA(-1)

    F: A. Svechnikov, R. Thomas, N. Suzuki, Pastrnak, Boldy, J. Robertson, J. Hughes, Frost, Tolvanen, Drouin, Heinen, Gallagher, N. Ritchie, Wood, Poehling, Podkolzin

    D: Makar, Fox, Dobson, Byram, Dahlin, Ferraro, Michael Stone

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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I think the Aho/Svech/Deangelo team comes out solidly ahead... but if your team is "high end"... then it's easier to fill up the end spots.

    Here's how it might shake out.
    16 team league starting 12F/6D.
    196F in play... so your average waiver/#12F might be a 40pt forward.
    96D in play... so your average waiver/#6D might be a 20pt defenseman.

    It's more of a 4-for-4 trade:

    SIDE A
    McDavid: 110pts
    ScrubF: 40pts
    ScrubF: 40pts
    Morrissey: 40pts
    -------
    230pts total for 3F/1D "McDavid side"


    SIDE B:
    Aho: 80pts
    Svech: 75pts
    Future #16: 55pts (avg. longterm point output of a #16 overall pick, assuming your team finishes 1st in 2022-2023)
    TonyD: 50pts
    ---
    260pts total for 3F/1D "Aho/Svech side"

    People can also put their own numbers on all these players - but this IS the math... it's a 4v4 trade comparison.
    So... that's a win for the Aho/Svech/TonyD/#16overall in 2023.


    Now - for the McDavid side... the upside is that you have skill to slowly better-up that #11F, #12F.
    Let's say you are a keen GM and you can find gems on the waiver... if you find a 50pt F, 50pt F... then you've increased your side up to 250pts.
    If McDavid pops off for 120pts a year... you are now up to 260pts and it's a pretty level trade.
    That's very possible... and it's upping the value of those final (I call them "scrub") spots that allow the "best player"-side to emerge as a winner... long-term.

    So... it can get close.
    But a 16team, 12F/6D dynasty is a lot of players... and getting 3 stars (TonyD is/will be solid going forward) and a middle-teen pick in 2023 is a really good rake on McDavid.

    [*This... is a LOT of math.... which is why people are usually quick to just say "McDavid side wins"... nuh-unh... not so... if it was a 12-team 9F/5D league... probably... but not 16-team 12F/6D league...]
    i agree with this but you also missing few details that will prove your point even more...


    This calculation is for points only Scraps will not get much PP points or SoG, if they are 40 points player they probably are not super physical either. All 3 guys on other side are getting prime PP minutes.

    Also scrubs most likely are sitting on your bench on Thursdays and Saturdays so the 40 points they get is not 40 points you accumulate from them, at best its 30 ...

    in Deep leagues you want depth vs absolutely elite talent...

    but as i said before this was not a horrible deal by any means..
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    Weekly Matchups - Daily Lineups

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    Goalies: W/GAA/SVs/SV%/SHO

    C: Eichel, Kadri, Mcdavid, Sodeberg, Schenn
    LW: Ehlers, Landeskog, Meier, Debrusk, Foegele, Lee
    RW: Pastrnak, Marner, Palmieri, Terry, D. Brown, Bailey, Granlund
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    Default Re: Acquired McDavid- How'd I Do?

    Quote Originally Posted by senryu View Post
    Are we sure about that? I don't have a comprehensive study, but I think that truly elite, elite talents tend to peak very early.

    Gretzky's goals and points highs were in his age 21 season. (Age seasons per hockey-reference.com)
    Lemieux's were in his age 23 season.
    Ovechkin was age 22.
    Crosby's points were age 19, goals were age 22.

    McDavid has already had his age 23 season.

    There are going to be many examples of other high-end guys who didn't hit career highs until later (e.g., Patrick Kane's points high at age 30). There might not be a true statistical basis for the theory, I admit. But the performance of comparable can't-miss, mega-elite talents suggests that McDavid might not have another level to get to. Hitting 1.5 ppg might be the apex. Of course, being mega-elite means that his tail of production is very likely going to be long and chock full of production. Something to think about.

    Some other #1s and other high end guys for comparison

    Stamkos goals at 21, points at 28 (beating his age 21 season by a single point)
    Tavares both at age 28
    Kovalchuk goals at 20, points at 22
    LeCavalier both at 26
    Sundin both at 21
    Modano both at 23
    Jagr both at 23
    Forsberg both at 22
    Sakic goals at 31, points at 26
    Yzerman both at 23
    Thornton goals at 21, points at 26
    Not to mention that one of McDavid's gamebreaking skills is his speed, that speed is only going to fade as the years go. He will probably always be quick and his skillset and brain will make up for it but if he loses his gamebreaking speed his numbers may fade a bit. So him improving his point totals in fututre years by large jumps is probably unlikely but who knows
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    W : Marner, P. Kane, Fiala
    D : Provorov, Bouchard
    G : Campbell, Francouz

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    G : Annunen, Thompson

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