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Thread: Who to take at 12th overall

  1. #16
    Belexus75's Avatar
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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    Thats the problem, everyone is too busy looking at the sparkly stuff, and not the value stuff.

    And for the record, I think you are missing out if you dont think Hoglander is that close.
    you are absolutely right that sparkly new stuff has way more value than it should in comparison to establish production but Demand = Value.

    It should not be as it is but it is as it is and you can get more for new unproven toys then old establish ones....just the way it is so personally i prefer to invest in whats out then then what should be out there...
    14 Teams H2H Dynasty, 28 roster spots (8 bench), 15 minors under 100
    Weekly Matchups - Daily Lineups

    Skaters: G/A/Pt/PIM/SoG/STP/H+B/ToI/Corsi
    Goalies: W/GAA/SVs/SV%/SHO

    C: Eichel, Kadri, Mcdavid, Sodeberg, Schenn
    LW: Ehlers, Landeskog, Meier, Debrusk, Foegele, Lee
    RW: Pastrnak, Marner, Palmieri, Terry, D. Brown, Bailey, Granlund
    D: Krug, Josi, Ekholm, Faulk, Muzzin, Karlsson, Cernak,
    G: Hellebuyck, Biship, M Jones

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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Belexus75 View Post
    you are absolutely right that sparkly new stuff has way more value than it should in comparison to establish production but Demand = Value.

    It should not be as it is but it is as it is and you can get more for new unproven toys then old establish ones....just the way it is so personally i prefer to invest in whats out then then what should be out there...
    Demand doesn't equal value if you're making the pick. Sure, if you want to trade it, demand a lot, but if you're making the pick to improve your team you make the smart play and take the right guy and that doesn't mean it has to be someone from this year's draft class.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    This might give you some context on values of prospect values

    I just finished a 24 team dynasty draft that included 2020 eligible guys. The draft had two guys that write for Dobber and 1 guy that has a fantasy podcast and this is the order of prospects that went :

    1. Lafreniere
    2. Veleno (I know, wtf. went 27th overall among ALL players and the guy quit midway thru the draft)
    3. Sorokin
    4. Byfield
    5. Kaprizov
    6. Zegras
    7. Bouchard
    8. Byram
    9. A. Boqvist
    10. Stutzle
    11. McMichael
    12. Rossi
    13. Kahkonen
    14. N. Roberston
    15. Holtz
    16. Raymond
    17. Hayton
    18. Kaliyev
    19. Askarov
    20. Caufield
    21. Tomasino
    22. Dach
    23. Denisenko
    24. Cozens
    25. Krebs
    26. Dobson
    27. Glass
    28. Romanov
    29. Brannstrom
    30. M. Lehtonen
    31. Frost
    32. Farabee
    33. Podkolzin
    34. C. Primeau
    35. T. Smith
    36. Seider
    37. Perunovich
    38. Knight
    39. Newhook
    40. Turcotte
    41. Tippett
    42. Lundell
    43. Comtois
    44. R. Suzuki
    45. Perfetti
    46. R. Sandin
    47. Batherson
    48. Oettinger
    49. Drysdale
    50. Luukkonen
    51. J. Sanderson
    52. Villardi
    53. S. Poulin
    54. Valimaki
    55. Kyrou
    56. L. Foudy
    57. Steel
    58. M. DiPietro
    59. Nedeljkovic
    60. J. Robertson
    61. Annunen
    62. Norris
    63. H. Lapierre
    64. Quinn
    65. Jarvis
    66. Lundqvist
    67. Khovanov
    68. Hague
    69. Niku
    70. Tolvanen
    71. Texier
    72. Trenin
    73. Kravtsov
    74. Hoglander
    75. D. Wolf
    76. Beckman
    77. Dugan
    78. Bean
    79. K'Andre. Miller
    80. Studnicka

    So that translates to in this order:

    1. - 1. Lafreniere
    2 - 4. Byfield
    3 - 10. Stutzle
    4 - 12. Rossi
    5 - 14. N. Roberston
    6 - 15. Holtz
    7 - 16. Raymond
    8 - 19. Askarov
    9 - 42. Lundell
    10 - 45. Perfetti
    11 - 49. Drysdale
    12 - 51. J. Sanderson
    13 - 63. H. Lapierre
    14 - 64. Quinn
    15 - 66. Lundqvist
    16 - 74. Hoglander
    17 - 80. Studnicka


    Obviously this isn't perfect but a snap shot of how *some* prospect knowledgable people took these guys. Dynasty drafts are crazy as well obviously and there's so much going on that it's hard to pick between a roster player and prospects, also in this particular draft goalies went too early in most spots so don't use the goalie values to sway you much. Also if like most leagues you do the draft after the NHL draft irl values will change, people will be more informed and hyped etc.
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    5th Year
    G=1.5, A=1, PPP=.25, SHP=.25, BLK=.1, HIT=.1, SOG=1, FOW=+.1, FOL=-.1, GA=-1, SV=+.1, SHO=4, W=3

    C : Hischier, Horvat,
    W : Marner, P. Kane, Fiala
    D : Provorov, Bouchard
    G : Campbell, Francouz

    Minors:
    C : Tomasino, Rossi, Khustnutdinov, Amirov, Stankoven,
    W : N. Robertson, Maccelli,
    D : Addison, Farrance, Morrow, Heinola, Rathbone
    G : Annunen, Thompson

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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Frost at 31?!... Branstrom should be way higher too
    14 Teams H2H Dynasty, 28 roster spots (8 bench), 15 minors under 100
    Weekly Matchups - Daily Lineups

    Skaters: G/A/Pt/PIM/SoG/STP/H+B/ToI/Corsi
    Goalies: W/GAA/SVs/SV%/SHO

    C: Eichel, Kadri, Mcdavid, Sodeberg, Schenn
    LW: Ehlers, Landeskog, Meier, Debrusk, Foegele, Lee
    RW: Pastrnak, Marner, Palmieri, Terry, D. Brown, Bailey, Granlund
    D: Krug, Josi, Ekholm, Faulk, Muzzin, Karlsson, Cernak,
    G: Hellebuyck, Biship, M Jones

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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    So Hoglander went 14th overall vs this year's kids. 12th isn't a stretch, which was my whole point. Everyone values players differently. I wouldn't take Quinn or Lundell before Hoglander.

    I also think Lundqvist should have gone a lot higher.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


    "Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."

  6. #21
    Belexus75's Avatar
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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    There is few other 2020 that went befor hoglander on that list...and I suspect there would be more if this happened after NHL draft
    14 Teams H2H Dynasty, 28 roster spots (8 bench), 15 minors under 100
    Weekly Matchups - Daily Lineups

    Skaters: G/A/Pt/PIM/SoG/STP/H+B/ToI/Corsi
    Goalies: W/GAA/SVs/SV%/SHO

    C: Eichel, Kadri, Mcdavid, Sodeberg, Schenn
    LW: Ehlers, Landeskog, Meier, Debrusk, Foegele, Lee
    RW: Pastrnak, Marner, Palmieri, Terry, D. Brown, Bailey, Granlund
    D: Krug, Josi, Ekholm, Faulk, Muzzin, Karlsson, Cernak,
    G: Hellebuyck, Biship, M Jones

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    tcat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    So Hoglander went 14th overall vs this year's kids. 12th isn't a stretch, which was my whole point. Everyone values players differently. I wouldn't take Quinn or Lundell before Hoglander.

    I also think Lundqvist should have gone a lot higher.
    I think i misunderstood your original comment, I was thinking you'd take those 2 over other guys in the top 11. But ya you weren't too far off in this instance

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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by tcat View Post
    I think i misunderstood your original comment, I was thinking you'd take those 2 over other guys in the top 11. But ya you weren't too far off in this instance
    The whole thread was about the 12th overall pick.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


    "Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."

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    tcat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Yeah i know but i got lost 😔. Oh well it sparked some good discussion
    *
    20 Team Dynasty H2H League: Devils (Rebuild Mode)
    5th Year
    G=1.5, A=1, PPP=.25, SHP=.25, BLK=.1, HIT=.1, SOG=1, FOW=+.1, FOL=-.1, GA=-1, SV=+.1, SHO=4, W=3

    C : Hischier, Horvat,
    W : Marner, P. Kane, Fiala
    D : Provorov, Bouchard
    G : Campbell, Francouz

    Minors:
    C : Tomasino, Rossi, Khustnutdinov, Amirov, Stankoven,
    W : N. Robertson, Maccelli,
    D : Addison, Farrance, Morrow, Heinola, Rathbone
    G : Annunen, Thompson

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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by tcat View Post
    Yeah i know but i got lost ��. Oh well it sparked some good discussion
    LOL, indeed. And Lundqvist went for a bargain in that draft IMO.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


    "Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."

  11. #26
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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    So Hoglander went 14th overall vs this year's kids. 12th isn't a stretch, which was my whole point. Everyone values players differently. I wouldn't take Quinn or Lundell before Hoglander.
    15th actually but your point remains

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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    Thats the problem, everyone is too busy looking at the sparkly stuff, and not the value stuff.

    And for the record, I think you are missing out if you dont think Hoglander is that close.

    With 4 points in 2 SHL games and 9 points 7 preseason games, May I ask: Do you have a cristal ball?
    31 TEAMS keep all multi-cat (lot of them) dynasty
    Offensive stats : Goals, Assist , PPP, PPTOI, SOG...
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    Default Re: Who to take at 12th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by PicklePickle View Post
    With 4 points in 2 SHL games and 9 points 7 preseason games, May I ask: Do you have a cristal ball?
    Lol, I wish.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


    "Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."

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