Poll: Who Will Win the 2020 Hart Trophy?

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Thread: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    not Mcdavid either....got to have dislike for oilers....

    i think everybody should be allowed to have an opinion to be honest..thats why they have enough people voting to not allow donkeys like this to make difference.
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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    To put one leg on each side of the fence.

    1. I picked Draisaitl, he won.
    2. I honestly can't say I watched enough Oilers games - mostly highlights. We all only have so much time for so many games per team.

    3. I really respect Dom. If his numbers & eye test say that Draisaitl wasn't good defensively, I believe it.


    It's so true.
    Hockey is a numbers game... and the reason I love/d +/- for so long is that there is no more important thing in hockey then creating goals and avoiding goals against.
    (For the longest time in NHL statistics... +/- was the only really good way we could capture this value if we hadn't been able to tune in for the game. Period.)
    ((As we know, this is goalie-dependent, defensively, so shot-metrics are more accurate and preferred, by me included, in this current day of statmetrics).)


    I don't think Dom is too far offside.
    There's a lot of players that have a far better two-way game than Draisaitl.


    All... all of that said.
    The Oilers don't have that much beyond Draisaitl, McDavid (and RNH is solid).
    So for that team, the Oilers to do as well as they did in finish standings... I think a voter can combine Draisaitl's offense with team success to warrant voting him for the Hart.
    Dom can be heavy on analytics.
    But a win is a win.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    To put one leg on each side of the fence.

    1. I picked Draisaitl, he won.
    2. I honestly can't say I watched enough Oilers games - mostly highlights. We all only have so much time for so many games per team.

    3. I really respect Dom. If his numbers & eye test say that Draisaitl wasn't good defensively, I believe it.


    It's so true.
    Hockey is a numbers game... and the reason I love/d +/- for so long is that there is no more important thing in hockey then creating goals and avoiding goals against.
    (For the longest time in NHL statistics... +/- was the only really good way we could capture this value if we hadn't been able to tune in for the game. Period.)
    ((As we know, this is goalie-dependent, defensively, so shot-metrics are more accurate and preferred, by me included, in this current day of statmetrics).)


    I don't think Dom is too far offside.
    There's a lot of players that have a far better two-way game than Draisaitl.


    All... all of that said.
    The Oilers don't have that much beyond Draisaitl, McDavid (and RNH is solid).
    So for that team, the Oilers to do as well as they did in finish standings... I think a voter can combine Draisaitl's offense with team success to warrant voting him for the Hart.
    Dom can be heavy on analytics.
    But a win is a win.
    This is reasonable. You can disagree with the assertion but accept the premise. If your argument is your personal opinion is you don't think Draisaitl's defense was bad enough to drag down his powerplay offense, fine. If your argument is his defense doesn't matter or #points, I mean someone is a donkey here but it's certainly not Dom.

    Also 99% of time, hockey writers aren't "not picking your players" because they dislike said team. They just think other players are better. That is ok.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Dom is also far from the only person who doesn't think Leon is the MVP. Its not some major egregious crime to think he might be the 6th-10th best player in the league.
    And yet he could go to the majority of the other NHL teams and be their best player and probably one of the best players in the league still. I'd say 95% of the teams. Only a couple I can think of where he doesn't become that teams best player.

    The old "he rides McDavid's coat tails" theory was debunked this year when he centered his own line with RNH and Yamamoto and could be argued as one of the best lines in hockey down the stretch prior to the COVID break. If anything, I'd say McDavid played in Draisaitl's shadow this year.
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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    And yet he could go to the majority of the other NHL teams and be their best player and probably one of the best players in the league still. I'd say 95% of the teams. Only a couple I can think of where he doesn't become that teams best player.

    The old "he rides McDavid's coat tails" theory was debunked this year when he centered his own line with RNH and Yamamoto and could be argued as one of the best lines in hockey down the stretch prior to the COVID break. If anything, I'd say McDavid played in Draisaitl's shadow this year.
    It's almost like I said he was still probably the 6th to 10th best player in the league this year and that would make him the best player on most teams in the league this year.

    Anyways, we can slow down on the "he did it without McDavid train". Of Draisaitl's 110 points, 21 were goals assisted by 97, 16 were assists to 97, 17 were assisted with 97, and an additional 15 were when 97 was on the ice.
    At 5v5, of his 56 points, 8 were goals assisted by 97, 7 were assists to 97, 6 were assists with 97, an additional 6 were when 97 was on the ice.

    So 63% of his total production and 48% of his 5v5 production were with McDavid, all while McDavid still remained his most common linemate. Lets slow our roll on that a little.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    It's almost like I said he was still probably the 6th to 10th best player in the league this year and that would make him the best player on most teams in the league this year.

    Anyways, we can slow down on the "he did it without McDavid train". Of Draisaitl's 110 points, 21 were goals assisted by 97, 16 were assists to 97, 17 were assisted with 97, and an additional 15 were when 97 was on the ice.
    At 5v5, of his 56 points, 8 were goals assisted by 97, 7 were assists to 97, 6 were assists with 97, an additional 6 were when 97 was on the ice.

    So 63% of his total production and 48% of his 5v5 production were with McDavid, all while McDavid still remained his most common linemate. Lets slow our roll on that a little.
    Wasn't it nice of Leon to help out McDavid's numbers this year.
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    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Dom is correct but the people that think he isn't is completely on brand.

    "This is why I don't pay for The Athletic" = "I don't have any interest in progressing my knowledge of the game and getting smarter, I prefer to live in the past".
    Hey if you want to piss away money paying for opinions that can be picked up for free in a multitude of places then fire away. I value my money more than that.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    I respect Dom Luszczyszyn for the way he made all of his award votes. He went with a formula and he adjusted it as needed. He wrote an entire article on his thought process for why he did not have Carlson on his Norris ballot, Couturier on his Selke ballot or Draisaitl on his Hart ballot. He made his picks, he gave his reasons and he showed everyone the process. That's the way these awards should be voted on.

    The problem I have is that he uses a formula that he created to give players a value. The formula that he uses is the problem as it does not include points at all. The most important part of a hockey game is scoring more goals and giving up less goals than your opponent. His formula does not give bonus points for a scoring chance that results in a goal over a scoring chance that does not result in a goal. This is a fatal flaw. For example, a guy who takes the puck in on a rush, shoots and scores gets credit for 1 scoring chance/corsi for event/fenwick for event/etc. The guy who takes the puck in on a rush, takes a shot that misses the net, picks up the puck, takes another shot on net that gest saved and then whacks the rebound at the net again gets credit for 3 scoring chances/corsi for events/ fenwick for events/etc. This makes no sense to me.

    Guess which player with more than 50 goals over the past 3 seasons has the highest shooting percentage? Leon Draisaitl with 18.4%. That is 118 goals on 643 shots on goal.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by doulos View Post
    Hey if you want to piss away money paying for opinions that can be picked up for free in a multitude of places then fire away. I value my money more than that.
    1) It's not
    2) People should be paid for their work.

    Some of us just understand the long term value of an investment is worth more than the cup of coffee per month.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    The problem I have is that he uses a formula that he created to give players a value. The formula that he uses is the problem as it does not include points at all. The most important part of a hockey game is scoring more goals and giving up less goals than your opponent. His formula does not give bonus points for a scoring chance that results in a goal over a scoring chance that does not result in a goal. This is a fatal flaw. For example, a guy who takes the puck in on a rush, shoots and scores gets credit for 1 scoring chance/corsi for event/fenwick for event/etc. The guy who takes the puck in on a rush, takes a shot that misses the net, picks up the puck, takes another shot on net that gest saved and then whacks the rebound at the net again gets credit for 3 scoring chances/corsi for events/ fenwick for events/etc. This makes no sense to me.
    This is really really not how scoring chances works and this is really really not how his model works.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    This is really really not how scoring chances works and this is really really not how his model works.
    Well, let's go through the definitions to see who's right (all information from https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs...2Glossary%22):

    xGF = expected goals for (total goal probablility of all Fenwick shots)
    Fenwick For = goals, shots on goal, missed shots

    That seems to cover everything we need to define "scoring chances". Let's recap the scenarios in my example.

    Scenario 1: Guy shoots puck from slot and scores
    Scenario 2: Guy shoots puck from slot, misses net, recovers puck and shoots again from the slot, shot is saved, rebound is shot on net again.

    Scenario 1: 1 scoring chance
    Scenario 2: 3 scoring chances

    Scenario 2 is 3 times higher in expected goals than Scenario 1.

    If this is incorrect, please explain to me where it goes wrong.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Well xGF is a %, so for starters each of the scenarios you just presented would result in the same xGF % of 100%

    For second, we're not talking about single events. All of these stats take in a large amount of events, which removes that kind of noise you get in small sampling.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    1) It's not
    2) People should be paid for their work.

    Some of us just understand the long term value of an investment is worth more than the cup of coffee per month.
    Thats fine. All of us value things differently. I find there are a multitude of free sources that offer me just as much, if not more, value than paying for this particular source. To each their own.

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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    I've subscribed to the Athletic for a couple years now and I enjoy the articles. Just because I don't agree with one writers opinion wouldnt change the experience for me. It's just one guys opinion.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: Hart Trophy Nominees: Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Panarin

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    I've subscribed to the Athletic for a couple years now and I enjoy the articles. Just because I don't agree with one writers opinion wouldnt change the experience for me. It's just one guys opinion.
    Great, Everyone has to decide for themselves what they like to spend their money on. I am really, really surprised that people still think you need to pay for quality writing and data these days, but then again there are lots of people still paying for cable television, so whatever.

    But it becomes even more absurd when the line "I don't have any interest in progressing my knowledge of the game and getting smarter, I prefer to live in the past" is tossed out I just have to laugh. Like who is living in the past when they are paying good money for internet content they can get from a variety of other sources.

    Anyways, if people are happy with this guy's stuff then all the power to them. I like stats and data a lot, but this is a situation of a guy who seems to have gotten himself completely lost in the weeds in an effort to make himself look smart. God I am guilty of that sometimes too, so I feel for him. But based on a number of his "picks" there is no way I would ever pay money to listen to much of what he has to say.

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