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Thread: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

  1. #31
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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    Quote Originally Posted by tobias View Post
    I agree with the MacKinnon pick over McDavid, in a salary cap league. Sure, you're getting three more years of McDavid, but I'm here to play now - not in four years.

    I have a spreadsheet that score players based on my league's multicat categories, age, cap hit (salary cap league), term. It likely means little to most, but for interest sake, it has Draisaitl with keeper value of 104.85, MacKinnon with 103.98, and McDavid with 85.00.

    EDIT: Those values (104.85, 103.98, and 85.00) are based on 2019-2020 production. I prefer to use the two most recent years' data, to account for ridiculous career years (e.g., Bryan Rust). Using the 2018-2020 data, I have MacKinnon at 99.41, Draisailt at 90.57, and McDavid at 79.42. Still very much a work in progress, but gives an idea of how I have them ranked.
    How have you done in your salary cap leagues since you started using this spreadsheet?

    Let's assume we are talking about a league that rosters 20 players. You spend $12.5M on McDavid who's going to finish top 2 in the NHL in points instead of MacKinnon at $6.5M who's going to get 95 points. The $6,000,000 in savings gives you an extra $316,000 for each of the next 19 rounds. Is that going to be a noticeable difference in selecting the guy you want to pick in each of the next 19 rounds? I don't think it would be.

    I can see not picking McDavid in a salary cap league that rosters less than 13 players and has a very tight salary cap but outside of that, give me McDavid first overall.

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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    How have you done in your salary cap leagues since you started using this spreadsheet?

    Let's assume we are talking about a league that rosters 20 players. You spend $12.5M on McDavid who's going to finish top 2 in the NHL in points instead of MacKinnon at $6.5M who's going to get 95 points. The $6,000,000 in savings gives you an extra $316,000 for each of the next 19 rounds. Is that going to be a noticeable difference in selecting the guy you want to pick in each of the next 19 rounds? I don't think it would be.

    I can see not picking McDavid in a salary cap league that rosters less than 13 players and has a very tight salary cap but outside of that, give me McDavid first overall.
    I don't think the cap savings get spread to every single player. It would end up going to one or two players. So you can have another 9M guy instead of 3M, or three 6M guys instead of three $4M guys. That's where you make up the stats.
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  3. #33
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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I don't think the cap savings get spread to every single player. It would end up going to one or two players. So you can have another 9M guy instead of 3M, or three 6M guys instead of three $4M guys. That's where you make up the stats.
    I don't think the difference would be that pronounced though. When his second- and third-round picks come around, he'll still take the best player regardless of salary. It's not until later on in the draft that he might start taking a look at his cap hit, and that's when those expensive guys who are worth their salaries aren't around anyways.

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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    Quote Originally Posted by newfcollins View Post
    I don't think the difference would be that pronounced though. When his second- and third-round picks come around, he'll still take the best player regardless of salary. It's not until later on in the draft that he might start taking a look at his cap hit, and that's when those expensive guys who are worth their salaries aren't around anyways.
    The money doesn't necessarily have to be spent at the draft table. If I'm drafting in an inaugural setup, my goal is to end up a bit under the cap to take advantage of teams that pushed themselves too tight to the cap trying to load themselves up in the draft.
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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    Both of these are spot on. I've done a lot of fantasy over the last 30 years, and hockey is, to me, the second simplest sport to deal with - it has essentially 5 positions, sometimes 3, and one of them generates different kinds of stats. Much simpler than football or baseball. Basketball is simpler, since there are generally just 3 positions nowadays.

    Cap room isn't a roster spot, but it is a constraint that lots of people fail to handle well. Most of us here can handle it fine, but there are different ways to do it, and many different cap rules out there. Auctions are easier to get a grasp on then things requiring actual real world contracts, due to the fact that things are very much out of your control.



    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I don't think the cap savings get spread to every single player. It would end up going to one or two players. So you can have another 9M guy instead of 3M, or three 6M guys instead of three $4M guys. That's where you make up the stats.
    Exactly. $3m is the difference between having, for example Crosby or Hornqvist. One of those two you don't want much, the other you want a lot.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    The money doesn't necessarily have to be spent at the draft table. If I'm drafting in an inaugural setup, my goal is to end up a bit under the cap to take advantage of teams that pushed themselves too tight to the cap trying to load themselves up in the draft.
    Invariably, there are teams who spend right to the limit, and then either:

    1. Fail to contend.
    2. Leave the league.
    3. Have no room to keep everyone that they want to keep, so have to make moves.
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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    First of all.....WOW! Thanks for all the responses, it has been a great read and a very interesting discussion.

    I will get this out of the way first......McD went 3rd OA.

    For this league, I studied the rules pretty hard before the draft and thought I could exploit them. As mentioned, this league uses the current NHL salary cap and AAV. So in my view, as has been mentioned previously in this thread to take BPA regardless of salary I think could get you into trouble pretty fast. For discussion sake, lets say I took McDavid with my 1st pick, Marner with my 2nd pick and Patty Kane with my 3rd....all fantastic players. But when you look at their combined AAV - McDavid ($12.5), Marner ($10.893) and Kane ($10.5) - of $33.893 it shrinks your remaining cap number a ton as I would have only $47.607 remaining to fill 20 more roster spots ($2.38 per roster spot). Using AAV, it is much harder to fill roster spots with elite young talent because their AAV is higher than their cap hit. For example, Cale Makar has a cap hit of $880,833 but his AAV is $2,854,166. Another example is Trevor Zegras who has a cap hit of $925,000 but his AAV is $1,755,000......and the chances of filling out my roster with high upside players like this is almost nil. In my view, picking BPA regardless of AAV in this setup is a recipe for disaster.

    I have made 7 picks already in this draft and I am pretty pleased with the players I was able to get:
    1 - MacKinnon, 2 - Huberdeau, 3 - JT Miller, 4 - Pionk, 5 - Hronek, 6 - Robert Thomas and 7 - Kuemper
    My combined AAV for the 2020/2021 season is $27.040833 so far. When you compare that to the AAV if I hypothetically picked McD, Marner and Kane ($33.893) I still have $6.852167 AAV space remaining, comparability speaking. Now, call me crazy but I would rather have those 7 players and almost $7mil more to spend throughout my roster than only having those 3 players and trying to fill out my roster from there.

    Anyways, that looks more like my university calculus class notes rather than a hockey post, but I think it was important to lay out my thought process and why I picked who I picked.

    Once again thanks for the fantastic discussion and I hope it continues (even got mentioned in the Ramblings today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) Take care and Rep'd where I could.

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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    Quote Originally Posted by jtloveshack View Post
    First of all.....WOW! Thanks for all the responses, it has been a great read and a very interesting discussion.

    I will get this out of the way first......McD went 3rd OA.

    For this league, I studied the rules pretty hard before the draft and thought I could exploit them. As mentioned, this league uses the current NHL salary cap and AAV. So in my view, as has been mentioned previously in this thread to take BPA regardless of salary I think could get you into trouble pretty fast. For discussion sake, lets say I took McDavid with my 1st pick, Marner with my 2nd pick and Patty Kane with my 3rd....all fantastic players. But when you look at their combined AAV - McDavid ($12.5), Marner ($10.893) and Kane ($10.5) - of $33.893 it shrinks your remaining cap number a ton as I would have only $47.607 remaining to fill 20 more roster spots ($2.38 per roster spot). Using AAV, it is much harder to fill roster spots with elite young talent because their AAV is higher than their cap hit. For example, Cale Makar has a cap hit of $880,833 but his AAV is $2,854,166. Another example is Trevor Zegras who has a cap hit of $925,000 but his AAV is $1,755,000......and the chances of filling out my roster with high upside players like this is almost nil. In my view, picking BPA regardless of AAV in this setup is a recipe for disaster.

    I have made 7 picks already in this draft and I am pretty pleased with the players I was able to get:
    1 - MacKinnon, 2 - Huberdeau, 3 - JT Miller, 4 - Pionk, 5 - Hronek, 6 - Robert Thomas and 7 - Kuemper
    My combined AAV for the 2020/2021 season is $27.040833 so far. When you compare that to the AAV if I hypothetically picked McD, Marner and Kane ($33.893) I still have $6.852167 AAV space remaining, comparability speaking. Now, call me crazy but I would rather have those 7 players and almost $7mil more to spend throughout my roster than only having those 3 players and trying to fill out my roster from there.

    Anyways, that looks more like my university calculus class notes rather than a hockey post, but I think it was important to lay out my thought process and why I picked who I picked.

    Once again thanks for the fantastic discussion and I hope it continues (even got mentioned in the Ramblings today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) Take care and Rep'd where I could.
    To be fair, I said I'd take the BPA available no matter the salary early on. I didnt mean I'd do it every round.

    If there's one thing I've found when it comes to inaugural drafts in cap leagues is that I always seem to have cap space at the end of the draft. I cant think of one that I did where I was stretched with my last couple picks in regards to worrying about cap. Maybe that's just me, but cap space at the end of my drafts has never been an issue. I've always been able to find bargain deals in the mid rounds to make up for the early spendings on the high end players.

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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    You mention that you could have selected McDavid, Kane and Marner, but you easily could have just taken the same players that you did. So your roster would have been 1 - McDavid, 2 - Huberdeau, 3 - JT Miller, 4 - Pionk, 5 - Hronek, 6 - Robert Thomas and 7 - Kuemper. You still would have had that cap flexibility.

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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    I love the MacKinnon and Huberdeau selections as your first two picks!

    One thing that I wanted to mention for the MacKinnon vs McDavid debate: YES, MacKinnon will (should) get paid more than McDavid after three more seasons. HOWEVER, contract signings often look at the percentage of cap hit when coming up with a number. If McDavid's percentage of 16.67% is what MacKinnon's camp looks for when the time comes, we have to remember that the cap is not likely to be significantly higher than it is right now. I thought that I saw tweet a couple of weeks back, suggesting 81.5, 81.5, 82.5, 84 over the next four years. Let's say that the salary cap is 85 when MacKinnon needs a new contract. At 16.67%, that's a cap hit of $14.2 million.

    With that in mind, there is no way that I am giving up the tremendously, significantly better value that MacKinnon is over McDavid for the next three years, just so I can save 1.7 million dollars, four-six years down the road. With the first two picks that were made, jtloveshack has an elite and a superstar player, for less than the cost of McDavid. I'm, honestly, a bit surprised that Pastrnak wasn't picked before McDavid.

    The final observation that I will make, and this is just one person's opinion - fantasy players get traded around so much, especially in salary cap leagues, that to think that you'd still have McDavid in four-six years is outside of what I THINK is the norm for what actually goes on in leagues. I could be entirely wrong, and maybe it would make for an interesting poll thread, but I know that in my cap league, the Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Draisaitl owners, and to a lesser extent, the Barkov, Scheifele, Marchand, Huberdeau owners are not entertaining offers on these guys; nor, have any of them been traded in the last 12-18 months (except Scheifele and Huberdeau, each once). However, in the same time span, we've had McDavid traded twice, Eichel three times, Kucherov twice, Matthews once, Panarin once, Ovechkin once, and Seguin twice.

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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    It's certainly an interesting discussion if anything else.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtloveshack View Post
    First of all.....WOW! Thanks for all the responses, it has been a great read and a very interesting discussion.

    I will get this out of the way first......McD went 3rd OA.

    For this league, I studied the rules pretty hard before the draft and thought I could exploit them. As mentioned, this league uses the current NHL salary cap and AAV. So in my view, as has been mentioned previously in this thread to take BPA regardless of salary I think could get you into trouble pretty fast. For discussion sake, lets say I took McDavid with my 1st pick, Marner with my 2nd pick and Patty Kane with my 3rd....all fantastic players. But when you look at their combined AAV - McDavid ($12.5), Marner ($10.893) and Kane ($10.5) - of $33.893 it shrinks your remaining cap number a ton as I would have only $47.607 remaining to fill 20 more roster spots ($2.38 per roster spot). Using AAV, it is much harder to fill roster spots with elite young talent because their AAV is higher than their cap hit. For example, Cale Makar has a cap hit of $880,833 but his AAV is $2,854,166. Another example is Trevor Zegras who has a cap hit of $925,000 but his AAV is $1,755,000......and the chances of filling out my roster with high upside players like this is almost nil. In my view, picking BPA regardless of AAV in this setup is a recipe for disaster.

    I have made 7 picks already in this draft and I am pretty pleased with the players I was able to get:
    1 - MacKinnon, 2 - Huberdeau, 3 - JT Miller, 4 - Pionk, 5 - Hronek, 6 - Robert Thomas and 7 - Kuemper
    My combined AAV for the 2020/2021 season is $27.040833 so far. When you compare that to the AAV if I hypothetically picked McD, Marner and Kane ($33.893) I still have $6.852167 AAV space remaining, comparability speaking. Now, call me crazy but I would rather have those 7 players and almost $7mil more to spend throughout my roster than only having those 3 players and trying to fill out my roster from there.
    Nobody said anything about picking Kane or Marner with your 2nd and 3rd round picks so you bringing them up now makes no difference. A roster with McDavid instead of MacKinnon and the other 6 guys is a much stronger roster and it still won't have any cap concerns as you will have $6.2M less to spend over your final 16 roster spots. That's less than $400,000 per player so it won't be noticeable at all.

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    Default Re: 2nd Overall pick in inaugural draft

    One last explanation from me on why I go for MacKinnon over McDavid.

    In a vaccum, MacKinnon at 6M presents more of a bang for your buck than McDavid, can we agree on that? (My cap rankings say so anyways)

    Putting that aside, the perfect roster would be one where every slot was optimized as much as possible, and you end up using up as much of the cap as possible to do so - does that point also make sense? Well to optimize a roster (assuming 12F, 6D, 2G) we would have something along the lines of:
    Hart/Vas - 4.5M

    Makar/Hughes - 2M
    Dahlin/Pionk - 4M
    Josi/Carlson - 12M

    Mackinnon/Pasta/Draisaitl - 21.5M
    Petersson/Svechnikov/B.Tkachuk - 3M
    Zibanejad/Huberdeau/Marchand - 17M
    Miller/Barkov/Couturier - 15.5M

    Total team cap hit: ~79.5M

    To throw McDavid onto that team, we have to subtract elsewhere. Is changing McDavid over MacKinnon worth downgrading Miller to Fiala and Marchand to Bryan Rust (or however you sort it out).

    That's how I see cap teams. Every dollar you spend somewhere is taking away from optimizing another roster slot, and if you're spending more than you need to at any slot, the trickle down hurts. It may not be evident when you abstractly say "I'll take McDavid and make room for him" but if you actually sort through what he costs you in terms of not being able to fit throughout the years he is on your roster, then it appears to come out favouring the better bargain player.

    Did that actually sway anyone or just make you dig your heels in more?
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    You can take MacKinnon and be just as competitive as you would be with McDavid, but if all other draft decisions are equally optimized after the fact, then you'll have $6M to play with. Whether it's towards the end of the draft or maybe come trade season there's an opportunity cost you'll feel by not having that $6M in reserve. Having that cap space could be the difference between adding an expensive veteran like Carlson, Ovechkin or Malkin to upgrade an end of roster spot or not. You can set yourself up to be the one who takes advantage of that, or you can let your opponent, but if you aren't seeking to maximize every single roster spot you're leaving meat on the bone.
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    The three things that really should be looked at our reasonable expectations, plausible worst case scenario and best case scenario.

    MacKinnon will be 25 years old next month. In his career, he had 63 points in 82 games, 38 points in 64 games, 52 points in 72 games, 53 points in 83 games, 97 points in 74 games, 99 points in 92 games and 93 points in 69 games. His highest point per game is 1.35 points per game. Let's ignore the numbers from his first four seasons before he broke out and reasonable expectations would be about 1.3 points per game (he's never actually done that well but he's been pretty close). That's good for about 106 points in a season. His career high is actually only 99.

    Mackinnon - $6.3M for next 3 years - reasonable expectation is about 100 points per season with a floor of 90 and a maximum of about 110.

    Let's do the same for McDavid. He turned 23 this year. His career numbers are 48 points in 45 games, 100 points in 82 games, 108 points in 82 games, 116 points in 78 games and 97 points in 64 games. In his first 4 seasons in the NHL he averaged 1.3 points per game. That number jumped up to 1.52 in his 5th season after an off-season where he did nothing be rehab a serious knee injury.

    McDavid - $12.5M for next 6 seasons - reasonable expectation is about 120 points per season with a floor of 100 and a maximum of 160 (I think he could go higher but that's beside the point).

    I would take the 2nd guy every time and save the extra $6.2M in salary over the other 22 guys on the roster.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    The three things that really should be looked at our reasonable expectations, plausible worst case scenario and best case scenario.

    MacKinnon will be 25 years old next month. In his career, he had 63 points in 82 games, 38 points in 64 games, 52 points in 72 games, 53 points in 83 games, 97 points in 74 games, 99 points in 92 games and 93 points in 69 games. His highest point per game is 1.35 points per game. Let's ignore the numbers from his first four seasons before he broke out and reasonable expectations would be about 1.3 points per game (he's never actually done that well but he's been pretty close). That's good for about 106 points in a season. His career high is actually only 99.

    Mackinnon - $6.3M for next 3 years - reasonable expectation is about 100 points per season with a floor of 90 and a maximum of about 110.

    Let's do the same for McDavid. He turned 23 this year. His career numbers are 48 points in 45 games, 100 points in 82 games, 108 points in 82 games, 116 points in 78 games and 97 points in 64 games. In his first 4 seasons in the NHL he averaged 1.3 points per game. That number jumped up to 1.52 in his 5th season after an off-season where he did nothing be rehab a serious knee injury.

    McDavid - $12.5M for next 6 seasons - reasonable expectation is about 120 points per season with a floor of 100 and a maximum of 160 (I think he could go higher but that's beside the point).

    I would take the 2nd guy every time and save the extra $6.2M in salary over the other 22 guys on the roster.
    Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree
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